IAIN DALES General Election Predictions: Warwickshire

Originally posted here >>> http://www.iaindale.com/

Warwickshire
Seats: 6
Current Political Makeup: Con 6
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Con 4, Lab 2
1. Kenilworth & Southam
2010 Result:
Conservative: 25945 (53.6%)
Labour: 6949 (14.3%)
Lib Dem: 13393 (27.7%)
Green: 568 (1.2%)
UKIP: 1214 (2.5%)
Independent: 362 (0.7%)
MAJORITY: 12552 (25.9%)
Sitting MP: Jeremy Wright (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold
Safe seat.
2. North Warwickshire
2010 Result:
Conservative: 18993 (40.2%)
Labour: 18939 (40.1%)
Lib Dem: 5481 (11.6%)
BNP: 2106 (4.5%)
UKIP: 1335 (2.8%)
English Dem: 411 (0.9%)
MAJORITY: 54 (0.1%)
Sitting MP: Dan Byles (Con)
Prediction: Labour gain
Dan Byles is standing down, presumably because he saw the writing on the wall. Whatever chance the Tories had of retaining this most marginal of marginals probably disappeared with that decision.
3. Nuneaton
2010 Result:
Conservative: 18536 (41.5%)
Labour: 16467 (36.9%)
Lib Dem: 6846 (15.3%)
BNP: 2797 (6.3%)
MAJORITY: 2069 (4.6%)
Sitting MP: Marcus Jones (Con)
Prediction: Labour gain
UKIP didn’t stand here last time. The result in 2015 might well depend on whose votes they take. And Marcus Jones will know that.
4. Rugby
Sitting MP: Mark Pawsey (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold
This was a Labour seat between 1997 and 2005 but boundary changes shifted it in favour of the Tories. It’s likely to remain that way unless Ed Miliband gets a majority of 30-40.
5. Stratford on Avon
2010 Result:
Conservative: 26052 (51.5%)
Labour: 4809 (9.5%)
Lib Dem: 14706 (29.1%)
BNP: 1097 (2.2%)
Green: 527 (1%)
UKIP: 1846 (3.7%)
English Dem: 473 (0.9%)
Independent: 1032 (2%)
MAJORITY: 11346 (22.4%)
Sitting MP: Nadhim Zahawi (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold
Safe seat.
6. Warwick & Leamington
2010 Result:
Conservative: 20876 (42.6%)
Labour: 17363 (35.4%)
Lib Dem: 8977 (18.3%)
Green: 693 (1.4%)
UKIP: 926 (1.9%)
Independent: 197 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 3513 (7.2%)
Sitting MP: Chris White (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold
The Ashcroft constituency poll points to a Tory hold. Looking at other factors like local election results, I’d find that difficult to argue with.