IAIN DALES General Election Predictions: Scotland - Central

Scotland – Central
Seats: 5
Current Political Makeup: Lab 1, LibDem 1, SNP 3
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Lab 0, SNP 5
13. Dundee East
2010 Result:
Conservative: 6177 (15.2%)
Labour: 13529 (33.3%)
Lib Dem: 4285 (10.6%)
SNP: 15350 (37.8%)
Green: 542 (1.3%)
UKIP: 431 (1.1%)
Others: 254 (0.6%)
MAJORITY: 1821 (4.5%)
Sitting MP: Stewart Hosie (SNP)
Prediction: SNP hold
No problems for Stewart Hosie here.
14. Dundee West
2010 Result:
Conservative: 3461 (9.3%)
Labour: 17994 (48.5%)
Lib Dem: 4233 (11.4%)
SNP: 10716 (28.9%)
TUSC: 357 (1%)
Independent: 365 (1%)
MAJORITY: 7278 (19.6%)
Sitting MP: Jim McGovern (Lab)
Prediction: SNP gain
Labour has a good majority here but Dundee has always been susceptible to the allure of the SNP and I think they have a good chance of winning here. There are rumours that Jim McGovern is being pressured to stand aside for a new candidate.
15. Perth & North Perthshire
2010 Result:
Conservative: 14739 (30.5%)
Labour: 7923 (16.4%)
Lib Dem: 5954 (12.3%)
SNP: 19118 (39.6%)
Others: 534 (1.1%)
MAJORITY: 4379 (9.1%)
Sitting MP: Pete Wishart (SNP)
Prediction: SNP hold
Rumour is that the Tories are fighting hard to wrest this from the SNP. It would be a brave person who would put money on it though.
16. Argyll & Bute
2010 Result:
Conservative: 10861 (24%)
Labour: 10274 (22.7%)
Lib Dem: 14292 (31.6%)
SNP: 8563 (18.9%)
Green: 789 (1.7%)
Independent: 272 (0.6%)
Others: 156 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 3431 (7.6%)
Sitting MP: Alan Reid (LibDem)
Prediction: SNP gain
This is a genuine four way marginal now. However, Labour has no record locally and it’s likely their vote and indeed the LibDem vote may splinter to the SNP. If the Tories can take votes from the LibDems they may have a vague possibility of winning here, but my gut instinct is that the SNP is the more likely winner.My original prediction last year was that Alan Reid might hold this, or it would go to Labour. I have revised my view based on more research.
17. Stirling
2010 Result:
Conservative: 11254 (24%)
Labour: 19558 (41.8%)
Lib Dem: 6797 (14.5%)
SNP: 8091 (17.3%)
Green: 746 (1.6%)
UKIP: 395 (0.8%)
MAJORITY: 8304 (17.7%)
Sitting MP: Anne McGuire (Lab)
Prediction: SNP gain
An interesting seat, the more so since the popular Ann McGuire is standing down. The Tories haven’t won here since Michael Forsyth unexpectedly held the seat in 1992. They won’t this time either. They might not, but the SNP might well come from third place to win this seat.