IAIN DALES General Election Predictions: Somerset

Originally posted here >>> http://iaindale.com/

Somerset
Seats: 5
Current Political Makeup: Con 1, LibDem 4
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Con 4, LibDem 1
1. Bridgwater & Somerset West
2010 Result:
Conservative: 24675 (45.3%)
Labour: 9332 (17.1%)
Lib Dem: 15426 (28.3%)
BNP: 1282 (2.4%)
Green: 859 (1.6%)
UKIP: 2604 (4.8%)
Independent: 315 (0.6%)
MAJORITY: 9249 (17%)
Sitting MP: Ian Liddell-Grainger
Prediction: Conservative hold
Safe seat.
2. Somerton & Frome
2010 Result:
Conservative: 26976 (44.5%)
Labour: 2675 (4.4%)
Lib Dem: 28793 (47.5%)
UKIP: 1932 (3.2%)
Others: 236 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 1817 (3%)
Sitting MP: David Heath (LibDem)
Prediction: Conservative gain
LibDem HQ must have been tearing their hair out when David Heath announced his retirement as he stood the best prospect of retaining this seat. His current majority is the largest he has ever enjoyed, but that is largely because at the last election the UKIP vote doubled to nearly 2,000. If they do the same in 2015 they could deny the Conservatives a gain they thought they had in the bag last time.
3. Taunton Deane
2010 Result:
Conservative: 24538 (42.2%)
Labour: 2967 (5.1%)
Lib Dem: 28531 (49.1%)
UKIP: 2114 (3.6%)
MAJORITY: 3993 (6.9%)
Sitting MP: Jeremy Browne (LibDem)
Prediction: Narrow Conservative gain
Boundary changes last time increased Browne’s majority from just over 500. However, his personal vote will now disappear as he is standing down. I think it’s possible for the LibDems to hold the seat but I’d given them no more than a 25% chance of doing so.,
4. Wells
2010 Result:
Conservative: 23760 (42.5%)
Labour: 4198 (7.5%)
Lib Dem: 24560 (44%)
BNP: 1004 (1.8%)
Green: 631 (1.1%)
UKIP: 1711 (3.1%)
MAJORITY: 800 (1.4%)
Sitting MP: Tessa Munt (LibDem)
Prediction: Conservative gain
The former seat of David Heathcoat-Amory Tessa Munt won Wells in 2010. She has enjoyed a high media profile and has conducted some good campaigns. The Tories will make every effort to regain this seat and will be devastated if they don’t pull it off.
5. Yeovil
2010 Result:
Conservative: 18807 (32.9%)
Labour: 2991 (5.2%)
Lib Dem: 31843 (55.7%)
BNP: 1162 (2%)
UKIP: 2357 (4.1%)
MAJORITY: 13036 (22.8%)
Sitting MP: David Laws (LibDem)
Prediction: LibDem hold
Surely a dead cert LibDem hold? Laws may lose a few votes because of his expenses scandal, and will suffer because of the LibDem decline in popularity, but I can’t see a 13,000 majority being overturned.