LABOUR 26
CONSERVATIVE 8
LIBDEM 3
PLAID CYMRU 3
IAINS PREDICTION
LABOUR 28
CONSERVATIVES 7
PLAID CYMRU 3
LIBDEMS 2
Originally posted here >>> http://www.iaindale.com/
Gwynedd
Seats: 3
Current Political Makeup: Lab 1, Plaid Cymru 2
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Lab 1, Plaid Cymru 2
1. Arfon
2010 Result:
Conservative: 4416 (16.9%)
Labour: 7928 (30.4%)
Lib Dem: 3666 (14.1%)
Plaid Cymru: 9383 (36%)
UKIP: 685 (2.6%)
MAJORITY: 1455 (5.6%)
Sitting MP: Hywel Williams (PC)
Prediction: Plaid Cymru hold
This has been a Plaid seat for yonks, but Labour isn’t far behind, albeit on a very small electorate. The Plaid organisation is strong here. It’s not inconceivable that Labour could win but I doubt it.
2. Dwyfor Meironnydd
2010 Result:
Conservative: 6447 (22.3%)
Labour: 4021 (13.9%)
Lib Dem: 3538 (12.2%)
Plaid Cymru: 12814 (44.3%)
UKIP: 776 (2.7%)
Independent: 1310 (4.5%)
MAJORITY: 6367 (22%)
Sitting MP: Elfyn Llwyd (PC)
Prediction: Plaid Cymru hold
Safe seat.
3. Ynys Mon
2010 Result:
Conservative: 7744 (22.5%)
Labour: 11490 (33.4%)
Lib Dem: 2592 (7.5%)
Plaid Cymru: 9029 (26.2%)
UKIP: 1201 (3.5%)
Christian: 163 (0.5%)
Independent: 2225 (6.5%)
MAJORITY: 2461 (7.1%)
Sitting MP: Albert Owen (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
This seat has been held by the Tories, Labour and Plaid in the last thirty years. In 1992 and 1997 it went Plaid but since then the Labour majority has been increasing. I suspect it will again. However, UKIP is expected to do very well here. No one knows where their votes may come from, so anything is possible.
Seats: 2
Current Political Makeup: Con 1, LibDem 1
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Con 1, LibDem 1
1. Brecon & Radnorshire
2010 Result:
Conservative: 14182 (36.5%)
Labour: 4096 (10.5%)
Lib Dem: 17929 (46.2%)
Plaid Cymru: 989 (2.5%)
Green: 341 (0.9%)
UKIP: 876 (2.3%)
Christian: 222 (0.6%)
Others: 210 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 3747 (9.6%)
Sitting MP: Roger Williams
Prediction: LibDem hold
A Conservative gain here is possible but not definite. One of the tightest results in 2015, I’d think. The LibDems must be hoping that Roger Williams will definitely stand again, because if they hold onto this seat it will be in large part down to his personal vote. A few months ago I tipped this seat to go blue. I’m revising that now to a very narrow LibDem win. The Ashcroft polls show a definite loss to the Tories when people are asked who they will vote for in the election. But when they are asked to think about their own particular constituency the situation is dramatically reversed and the LibDems are ahead by 4%.
2. Montgomeryshire
2010 Result:
Conservative: 13976 (41.3%)
Labour: 2407 (7.1%)
Lib Dem: 12792 (37.8%)
Plaid Cymru: 2802 (8.3%)
UKIP: 1128 (3.3%)
Independent: 324 (1%)
Others: 384 (1.1%)
MAJORITY: 1184 (3.5%)
Sitting MP: Glyn Davies (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold
Glyn Davies won this seat in part because Lembit Opik outstayed his welcome. He’s proved to be quite popular and although the LibDems are convinced they can retake this seat I suspect they’ll be badly disappointed.
Seats: 8
Current Political Makeup: Con 1, Lab 7
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Con 1, Lab 7
1. Blaenau Gwent
2010 Result:
Conservative: 2265 (7%)
Labour: 16974 (52.4%)
Lib Dem: 3285 (10.1%)
Plaid Cymru: 1333 (4.1%)
BNP: 1211 (3.7%)
UKIP: 488 (1.5%)
Peoples Voice: 6458 (19.9%)
Others: 381 (1.2%)
MAJORITY: 10516 (32.5%)
Sitting MP: Nick Smith (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Safe seat.
2. Caerphilly
2010 Result:
Conservative: 6622 (17.1%)
Labour: 17377 (44.9%)
Lib Dem: 5688 (14.7%)
Plaid Cymru: 6460 (16.7%)
BNP: 1635 (4.2%)
UKIP: 910 (2.4%)
MAJORITY: 10755 (27.8%)
Sitting MP: Wayne David (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Safe seat.
3. Islwyn
2010 Result:
Conservative: 4854 (14%)
Labour: 17069 (49.2%)
Lib Dem: 3597 (10.4%)
Plaid Cymru: 4518 (13%)
BNP: 1320 (3.8%)
UKIP: 930 (2.7%)
Independent: 1495 (4.3%)
Others: 901 (2.6%)
MAJORITY: 12215 (35.2%)
Sitting MP: Chris Evans (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Safe seat.
4. Merthyr Tydfil & Rhymney
2010 Result:
Conservative: 2412 (7.5%)
Labour: 14007 (43.7%)
Lib Dem: 9951 (31%)
Plaid Cymru: 1621 (5.1%)
BNP: 1173 (3.7%)
UKIP: 872 (2.7%)
Independent: 1845 (5.8%)
Others: 195 (0.6%)
MAJORITY: 4056 (12.6%)
Sitting MP: Dai Havard (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Relatively safe seat. Having said that, UKIP did astonishingly well in the Euro elections here. If they repeated that in the General Election and took a lot of votes from Labour, the seat could be vulnerable to the Liberal Democrats. But I’ll believe that when I see it.
5. Monmouth
2010 Result:
Conservative: 22466 (48.3%)
Labour: 12041 (25.9%)
Lib Dem: 9026 (19.4%)
Plaid Cymru: 1273 (2.7%)
Green: 587 (1.3%)
UKIP: 1126 (2.4%)
MAJORITY: 10425 (22.4%)
Sitting MP: David T C Davies (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold
Safe seat.
6. Newport East
2010 Result:
Conservative: 7918 (23%)
Labour: 12744 (37%)
Lib Dem: 11094 (32.2%)
Plaid Cymru: 724 (2.1%)
BNP: 1168 (3.4%)
UKIP: 677 (2%)
Others: 123 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 1650 (4.8%)
Sitting MP: Jessica Morden (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
A marginal, but with the LibDems in second place it’s almost certain Jessica Morden will increase her majority.
7. Newport West
2010 Result:
Conservative: 12845 (32.3%)
Labour: 16389 (41.3%)
Lib Dem: 6587 (16.6%)
Plaid Cymru: 1122 (2.8%)
BNP: 1183 (3%)
Green: 450 (1.1%)
UKIP: 1144 (2.9%)
MAJORITY: 3544 (8.9%)
Sitting MP: Paul Flynn (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
This seat has always looked marginal and the Tories had high hopes in 2010. They don’t in 2015.
8. Torfaen
2010 Result:
Conservative: 7541 (20%)
Labour: 16847 (44.8%)
Lib Dem: 6264 (16.6%)
Plaid Cymru: 2005 (5.3%)
BNP: 1657 (4.4%)
Green: 438 (1.2%)
UKIP: 862 (2.3%)
Independent: 1419 (3.8%)
Others: 607 (1.6%)
MAJORITY: 9306 (24.7%)
Sitting MP: Paul Murphy (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Safe seat.
Seats: 7
Current Political Makeup: Con 2, Lab 5
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Con 2, Lab 5
1. Aberconwy
2010 Result:
Conservative: 10734 (35.8%)
Labour: 7336 (24.5%)
Lib Dem: 5786 (19.3%)
Plaid Cymru: 5341 (17.8%)
UKIP: 632 (2.1%)
Christian: 137 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 3398 (11.3%)
Sitting MP: Guto Bebb (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold
As long as the opposition remains fairly evenly split, Guto Bebb can feel confident of winning for a second time. But if Labour take a lot of votes from the LibDems, then they could take this seat.
2. Alyn & Deeside
2010 Result:
Conservative: 12885 (32.3%)
Labour: 15804 (39.6%)
Lib Dem: 7308 (18.3%)
Plaid Cymru: 1549 (3.9%)
BNP: 1368 (3.4%)
UKIP: 1009 (2.5%)
MAJORITY: 2919 (7.3%)
Sitting MP: Mark Tami (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Not a safe seat but there are only two realistic outcomes here. A Labour hold or a Tory gain. Yes, you read that right. This is a seat where UKIP are apparently leeching votes off Labour. This could let the Tories in. Mark Tami will know this so expect a big Labour campaign here.
3. Clwyd South
2010 Result:
Conservative: 10477 (30.2%)
Labour: 13311 (38.4%)
Lib Dem: 5965 (17.2%)
Plaid Cymru: 3009 (8.7%)
BNP: 1100 (3.2%)
UKIP: 819 (2.4%)
MAJORITY: 2834 (8.2%)
Sitting MP: Susan Elan Jones (Lab)
Prediction: Labour win
The Tories had hopes here last time around, but they didn’t quite manage it. They won’t this time either. Susan Elan Jones is looking at an increased majoirty.
4. Clwyd West
2010 Result:
Conservative: 15833 (41.5%)
Labour: 9414 (24.7%)
Lib Dem: 5801 (15.2%)
Plaid Cymru: 5864 (15.4%)
UKIP: 864 (2.3%)
Christian: 239 (0.6%)
Independent: 96 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 6419 (16.8%)
Sitting MP: David Jones (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold
A Labour win is not out of the question but in twi terms Jones has built up a good majority. However, this time he is faced by the former Labour MP for the area, Gareth Thomas, who wasn’t allowed to stand in 2010 because of an all-women shortlist. He will put up a tough fight, but Jones should triumph.
5. Delyn
2010 Result:
Conservative: 12811 (34.6%)
Labour: 15083 (40.8%)
Lib Dem: 5747 (15.5%)
Plaid Cymru: 1844 (5%)
BNP: 844 (2.3%)
UKIP: 655 (1.8%)
MAJORITY: 2272 (6.1%)
Sitting MP: David Hanson (Lab)
Prediction Labour hold
A straight Labour/Tory fight here, one which David Hanson is most likely to win again. However, there is little room for complacency as his majority has reduced from more than 11,000 to 2272. UKIP topped the poll here in the Euros and David Hanson will fear that they take more votes off him than the Tories.
6. Vale of Clwyd
2010 Result:
Conservative: 12508 (35.2%)
Labour: 15017 (42.3%)
Lib Dem: 4472 (12.6%)
Plaid Cymru: 2068 (5.8%)
BNP: 827 (2.3%)
UKIP: 515 (1.4%)
Others: 127 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 2509 (7.1%
Sitting MP: Chris Ruane (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Very similar to Clwyd West in that it’s a straight Labour/Tory fight with an ever decreasing Labour majority. Another seat where UKIP expect to do well and could deprive Labour of a majority if they eat into the working class vote. This is one of four of five North Wales Labour marginals where this could happen.
7. Wrexham
2010 Result:
Conservative: 8375 (25.4%)
Labour: 12161 (36.9%)
Lib Dem: 8503 (25.8%)
Plaid Cymru: 2029 (6.2%)
BNP: 1134 (3.4%)
UKIP: 774 (2.3%)
MAJORITY: 3658 (11.1%)
Sitting MP: Ian Lucas (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
The Conservatives have always scratched their heads and wondered why they haven’t ever won Wrexham in recent times. UKIP finished first in the Euro elections here and they have opened up a campaign HQ in Wrexham high street. They got very few votes in 2010 in Wrexham but pundits are predicting a high vote this time. But who will they take votes from? The answer is probably all the parties. Ian Lucas will be a nervous man on election night but I can’t really predict anything other than a Labour hold as it stands.
Seats: 5
Current Political Makeup: Con 2, Lab 1, LibDem 1, PC 1
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Con 2, Lab 1, LibDem 1, PC 1
1. Carmarthen East & Dinefwr
2010 Result:
Conservative: 8506 (22.4%)
Labour: 10065 (26.5%)
Lib Dem: 4609 (12.1%)
Plaid Cymru: 13546 (35.6%)
UKIP: 1285 (3.4%)
MAJORITY: 3481 (9.2%)
Sitting MP: Jonathan Edwards (PC)
Prediction: Plaid Cymru hold
A Labour win here is possible but unlikely.
2. Carmarthen West & South Pembrokeshire
2010 Result:
Conservative: 16649 (41.1%)
Labour: 13226 (32.7%)
Lib Dem: 4890 (12.1%)
Plaid Cymru: 4232 (10.4%)
UKIP: 1146 (2.8%)
Independent: 364 (0.9%)
MAJORITY: 3423 (8.5%)
Sitting MP: Simon Hart (Con)
Prediction: Narrow Conservative hold
A difficult one to call but I’m going for a narrow Tory hold based on the fact that the Labour vote has declined here at every election since 1997 and the Tory vote has gone in the opposite direction. The Ashcroft marginal seats poll shows the Conservatives outperforming the rest of Wales here too..
3. Ceredigion
2010 Result:
Conservative: 4421 (11.6%)
Labour: 2210 (5.8%)
Lib Dem: 19139 (50%)
Plaid Cymru: 10815 (28.3%)
Green: 696 (1.8%)
UKIP: 977 (2.6%)
MAJORITY: 8324 (21.8%)
Sittting MP: Mark Williams (LibDem)
Prediction: LibDem hold
Plaid Cymru seem to be very confident they can take back this seat, which they unexpectedly lost in 2005. The LibDems will be badly affected by the loss of the student vote in Aberystwyth and Lampeter, but it’s difficult to work out how badly. I still think it’s a big call to predict anything other than a narrowish LibDem hold here, but I may well be proved wrong.
4. Llanelli
2010 Result:
Conservative: 5381 (14.4%)
Labour: 15916 (42.5%)
Lib Dem: 3902 (10.4%)
Plaid Cymru: 11215 (29.9%)
UKIP: 1047 (2.8%)
MAJORITY: 4701 (12.5%)
Sitting MP: Nia Griffith (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Plaid are in a good second place here but there’s no reason to think they could take enough votes from the other parties to win here.
5. Preseli Pembrokshire
2010 Result:
Conservative: 16944 (42.8%)
Labour: 12339 (31.2%)
Lib Dem: 5759 (14.5%)
Plaid Cymru: 3654 (9.2%)
UKIP: 906 (2.3%)
MAJORITY: 4605 (11.6%)
Sitting MP: Stephen Crabb (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold
Crabb has built up a decent majority here and Labour will find him difficult to shift. However, they will hark back to 1992 when Nick Ainger overturned a majority of more than 5,000 to oust Tory minister Nicholas Bennett. But this will be Crabb’s fourth election and I suspect he will have built up quite a large personal vote. His cabinet status is also a boost.
Seats: 5
Current Political Makeup: Lab 5
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Lab 5
1. Bridgend
2010 Result:
Conservative: 11668 (30.4%)
Labour: 13931 (36.3%)
Lib Dem: 8658 (22.6%)
Plaid Cymru: 2269 (5.9%)
BNP: 1020 (2.7%)
UKIP: 801 (2.1%)
MAJORITY: 2263 (5.9%)
Sitting MP: Madeleine Moon (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
The only way Labour will lose here is if the LibDem vote goes to the Tories rather than Labour. Unlikely. UKIP didn’t poll much here last time and it will be interesting to see if they influence the outcome.
2. Cynon Valley
2010 Result:
Conservative: 3010 (10.1%)
Labour: 15681 (52.5%)
Lib Dem: 4120 (13.8%)
Plaid Cymru: 6064 (20.3%)
UKIP: 1001 (3.4%)
MAJORITY: 9617 (32.2%)
Sitting MP: Ann Clwyd (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Safe seat
4. Ogmore
2010 Result:
Conservative: 5398 (15.6%)
Labour: 18644 (53.8%)
Lib Dem: 5260 (15.2%)
Plaid Cymru: 3326 (9.6%)
BNP: 1242 (3.6%)
UKIP: 780 (2.3%)
MAJORITY: 13246 (38.2%)
Sitting MP: Huw Irranca-Davies (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Safe seat.
5. Pontypridd
2010 Result:
Conservative: 5932 (16.2%)
Labour: 14220 (38.8%)
Lib Dem: 11435 (31.2%)
Plaid Cymru: 2673 (7.3%)
Green: 361 (1%)
UKIP: 1229 (3.4%)
Christian: 365 (1%)
Others: 456 (1.2%)
MAJORITY: 2785 (7.6%)
Sitting MP: Owen Smith (Lab)
Prediction: Increased Labour majority
A big LibDem vote for Labour to eat into. Owen Smith will also benefit from his media exposure as Labour’s Shadow Welsh Secretary.
6. Rhondda
2010 Result:
Conservative: 1993 (6.4%)
Labour: 17183 (55.3%)
Lib Dem: 3309 (10.6%)
Plaid Cymru: 5630 (18.1%)
UKIP: 358 (1.2%)
Independent: 2599 (8.4%)
MAJORITY: 11553 (37.2%)
Sitting MP: Chris Bryant (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Safe seat. Having said that, according to Goodwin & Ford this is UKIP’s number 1 Labour target seat. They might reduce Chris Bryant’s majority, but they won’t pick him off.
Seats: 5
Current Political Makeup: Lab 5
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Lab 5
1. Aberavon
2010 Result:
Conservative: 4411 (14.2%)
Labour: 16073 (51.9%)
Lib Dem: 5034 (16.3%)
Plaid Cymru: 2198 (7.1%)
BNP: 1276 (4.1%)
UKIP: 489 (1.6%)
Independent: 919 (3%)
Others: 558 (1.8%)
MAJORITY: 11039 (35.7%)
Sitting MP: Hywel Francis (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Safe seat.
2. Gower
2010 Result:
Conservative: 13333 (32%)
Labour: 16016 (38.4%)
Lib Dem: 7947 (19.1%)
Plaid Cymru: 2760 (6.6%)
BNP: 963 (2.3%)
UKIP: 652 (1.6%)
MAJORITY: 2683 (6.4%)
Sitting MP: Martin Caton (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
The Tories have always eyed this seat but haven’t managed to win it. Their only hope this time is that UKIp takes votes away from Labour and they’re not replaced by former LibDem voters. I think they need to pray rather than hope.
3. Neath
2010 Result:
Conservative: 4847 (13.1%)
Labour: 17172 (46.3%)
Lib Dem: 5535 (14.9%)
Plaid Cymru: 7397 (19.9%)
BNP: 1342 (3.6%)
UKIP: 829 (2.2%)
MAJORITY: 9775 (26.3%)
Sitting MP: Peter Hain (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Safe seat even though Peter Hain is retiring.
4. Swansea East
2010 Result:
Conservative: 4823 (14.8%)
Labour: 16819 (51.5%)
Lib Dem: 5981 (18.3%)
Plaid Cymru: 2181 (6.7%)
BNP: 1715 (5.2%)
Green: 318 (1%)
UKIP: 839 (2.6%)
MAJORITY: 10838 (33.2%)
Sitting MP: Sian James (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Safe seat. Sian James is standing down.
5. Swansea West
2010 Result:
Conservative: 7407 (20.8%)
Labour: 12335 (34.7%)
Lib Dem: 11831 (33.2%)
Plaid Cymru: 1437 (4%)
BNP: 910 (2.6%)
Green: 404 (1.1%)
UKIP: 716 (2%)
TUSC: 179 (0.5%)
Independent: 374 (1.1%)
MAJORITY: 504 (1.4%
Sitting MP: Geraint Davies (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
The LibDems came within a whisker of winning this seat last time and this is one their main hopes in 2015. Tactical voting by Conservatives may aid and abett them, and they will hope that UKIP leech off some traditional Labour support, but there are too many ‘ifs’ here to be confident of predicting an upset.
Seats: 5
Current Political Makeup: Con 2, Lab 2, LibDem 1
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Con 1, Lab 4
1. Cardiff Central
2010 Result:
Conservative: 7799 (21.6%)
Labour: 10400 (28.8%)
Lib Dem: 14976 (41.4%)
Plaid Cymru: 1246 (3.4%)
Green: 575 (1.6%)
UKIP: 765 (2.1%)
TUSC: 162 (0.4%)
Independent: 86 (0.2%)
Others: 142 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 4576 (12.7%)
Sitting MP: Jenny Willott (LibDem)
Prediction: Labour gain
Most pundits seem convinced this is a surefire Labour gain. I’m going with the flow here, but I am not 100% sure. Willott could benefit from some Tory tactical voting to keep Labour out. In addition, although UKIP aren’t strong in Cardiff, they could take votes away from Labour as well as the Tories, just as they are sure to do in North Wales. Jenny Willott shouldn’t give up the day job quite yet, but she’s in for the fight of her life.
2. Cardiff North
2010 Result:
Conservative: 17860 (37.5%)
Labour: 17666 (37.1%)
Lib Dem: 8724 (18.3%)
Plaid Cymru: 1588 (3.3%)
Green: 362 (0.8%)
UKIP: 1130 (2.4%)
Christian: 300 (0.6%)
MAJORITY: 194 (0.4%)
Sitting MP: Jonathan Evans (Con)
Prediction: Labour gain
I’m not sure any comment is necessary here. This has to be a surefire Labour gain. Just look at the figures.
3. Cardiff South & Penarth
2010 Result:
Conservative: 12553 (28.3%)
Labour: 17262 (38.9%)
Lib Dem: 9875 (22.3%)
Plaid Cymru: 1851 (4.2%)
Green: 554 (1.2%)
UKIP: 1145 (2.6%)
Christian: 285 (0.6%)
Independent: 648 (1.5%)
Others: 196 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 4709 (10.6%)
Sitting MP: Stephen Doughty (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
No change here.
4. Cardiff West
2010 Result:
Conservative: 12143 (29.6%)
Labour: 16894 (41.2%)
Lib Dem: 7186 (17.5%)
Plaid Cymru: 2868 (7%)
Green: 750 (1.8%)
UKIP: 1117 (2.7%)
MAJORITY: 4751 (11.6%)
Sitting MP: Kevin Brennan (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Kevin Brennan won’t have anything to worry about.
5. Vale of Glamorgan
2010 Result:
Conservative: 20341 (41.8%)
Labour: 16034 (32.9%)
Lib Dem: 7403 (15.2%)
Plaid Cymru: 2667 (5.5%)
Green: 457 (0.9%)
UKIP: 1529 (3.1%)
Christian: 236 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 4307 (8.8%)
Sitting MP: Alun Cairns (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold
All the pundits tip this seat to remain Tory and I’m not going to buck the trend. Local Tories think UKIP will depress the Labour vote more than their own. We’ll soon see how right they are
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