Leicestershire
Seats: 10
Current Political Makeup: Con 7, Lab 3
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Con 6, Lab 4
1. Bosworth
2010 Result:
Conservative: 23132 (42.6%)
Labour: 8674 (16%)
Lib Dem: 18100 (33.3%)
BNP: 2458 (4.5%)
UKIP: 1098 (2%)
English Dem: 615 (1.1%)
Others: 197 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 5032 (9.3%)
Sitting MP: David Tredinnick (Con)
Prediction: Increased Conservative majority
Safe seat.
2. Charnwood
2010 Result:
Conservative: 26560 (49.6%)
Labour: 10536 (19.7%)
Lib Dem: 11531 (21.5%)
BNP: 3116 (5.8%)
UKIP: 1799 (3.4%)
MAJORITY: 15029 (28.1%)
Sitting MP: Stephen Dorrell (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold
Safe seat.
3. Harborough
010 Result:
Conservative: 26894 (48.9%)
Labour: 6981 (12.7%)
Lib Dem: 17097 (31.1%)
BNP: 1715 (3.1%)
UKIP: 1462 (2.7%)
English Dem: 568 (1%)
Independent: 228 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 9797 (17.8%)
Sitting MP: Edward Garnier (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold
Safe seat.
4. Leicester East
2010 Result:
Conservative: 11722 (24.4%)
Labour: 25804 (53.8%)
Lib Dem: 6817 (14.2%)
BNP: 1700 (3.5%)
Green: 733 (1.5%)
UKIP: 725 (1.5%)
Others: 494 (1%)
MAJORITY: 14082 (29.3%)
Sitting MP: Keith Vaz (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Safe seat.
5. Leicester South
2010 Result:
Conservative: 10066 (21.4%)
Labour: 21479 (45.6%)
Lib Dem: 12671 (26.9%)
BNP: 1418 (3%)
Green: 770 (1.6%)
UKIP: 720 (1.5%)
MAJORITY: 8808 (18.7%)
Sitting MP: Jonathan Ashworth (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Safe seat. Briefly held by the LibDems in a pre 2010 by-election, but they don’t stand a hope here now.
6. Leicester West
2010 Result:
Conservative: 9728 (27.2%)
Labour: 13745 (38.4%)
Lib Dem: 8107 (22.6%)
BNP: 2158 (6%)
Green: 639 (1.8%)
UKIP: 883 (2.5%)
TUSC: 157 (0.4%)
Independent: 181 (0.5%)
Others: 221 (0.6%)
MAJORITY: 4017 (11.2%)
Sitting MP: Liz Kendall (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
The most marginal of the three Leicester seats, but Liz Kendall is quite safe.
7. Loughborough
2010 Result:
Conservative: 21971 (41.6%)
Labour: 18227 (34.5%)
Lib Dem: 9675 (18.3%)
BNP: 2040 (3.9%)
UKIP: 925 (1.8%)
MAJORITY: 3744 (7.1%)
Sitting MP: Nicky Morgan (Con)
Prediction: Narrow Labour gain
Very difficult to call, this one. Nicky Morgan may be saved by her high profile and the fact that she has established a good reputation locally. However, the LibDems have scored 18% of the vote here in the last three general elections. All it needs is for a substantial amount of the that vote to transfer to Labour and Nicky Morgan is toast. Interestingly UKIP only score 1.8% here, but the BNP got 3.9%. where that vote goes, will also be important. Nicky Morgan is a good friend and I’d love to be confident she can pull through here, but my prediction has to be guided by the electoral arithmetic and nothing else.
8. North West Leicestershire
2010 Result:
Conservative: 23147 (44.6%)
Labour: 15636 (30.1%)
Lib Dem: 8639 (16.6%)
BNP: 3396 (6.5%)
UKIP: 1134 (2.2%)
MAJORITY: 7511 (14.5%)
Sitting MP: Andrew Bridgen (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold
This looks like a safe Conservative seat but isn’t. Through the Blair/Brown years it was held by Labour and could go Labour again if there was a reasonable sized Labour majority. All indications are, thought, that the seat will remain Tory, albeit with a reduced majority.
9. Rutland & Melton
2010 Result:
Conservative: 28228 (51.1%)
Labour: 7893 (14.3%)
Lib Dem: 14228 (25.8%)
BNP: 1757 (3.2%)
UKIP: 2526 (4.6%)
Independent: 588 (1.1%)
MAJORITY: 14000 (25.4%)
Sitting MP: Sir Alan Duncan (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold
Safe seat.
10. South Leicestershire
2010 Result:
Conservative: 27000 (49.5%)
Labour: 11392 (20.9%)
Lib Dem: 11476 (21%)
BNP: 2721 (5%)
UKIP: 1988 (3.6%)
MAJORITY: 15524 (28.4%)
Sitting MP: Andrew Robothan (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold
Seaf seat
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