Originally posted here >>> http://www.iaindale.com/
Seats: 8
Current Political Makeup: Con 4, Lab 1, LibDem 3
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Con 5, Lab 1, LibDem 2
Battersea
2010 Result:
Conservative: 23103 (47.3%)
Labour: 17126 (35.1%)
Lib Dem: 7176 (14.7%)
Green: 559 (1.1%)
UKIP: 505 (1%)
Independent: 155 (0.3%)
Others: 168 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 5977 (12.2%)
Sitting MP: Jane Ellison (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold
Not a safe Tory seat by any stretch of the imagination. Despite
ongoing gentrification it’s got pockets of real poverty. If Labour fails
to get a majority, this seat stays Tory.
Kingston & Surbiton
2010 Result:
Conservative: 20868 (36.5%)
Labour: 5337 (9.3%)
Lib Dem: 28428 (49.8%)
Green: 555 (1%)
UKIP: 1450 (2.5%)
Others: 473 (0.8%)
MAJORITY: 7560 (13.2%)
Sitting MP: Ed Davey (LibDem)
Prediction: LibDem hold
Ed Davey won this seat in 1997 with a wafer thin majority of 56,
which rose to more than 15,000 in 2001. But since then the Conservative
vote has been on the rise. Davey has only managed to win with such
handsome majorities because he has squeezed the Labour vote from 23%
down to 9%. If that trend reverses, the Conservatives could squeak it,
but it’s highly unlikely. Ed Davey ought to be safe and sound here, and I
think he will be. I’m not sure he does though, given that he appears to
only spend 2 days a week at the Department of Energy & Climate
Change, if Guido Fawkes is to be believed. The rest of his time is spent
campaigning in his constituency.
Mitcham & Morden
2010 Result:
Conservative: 11056 (25.2%)
Labour: 24722 (56.4%)
Lib Dem: 5202 (11.9%)
BNP: 1386 (3.2%)
Green: 381 (0.9%)
UKIP: 857 (2%)
Independent: 155 (0.4%)
Others: 38 (0.1%)
MAJORITY: 13666 (31.2%)
Sitting MP: Siobhan McDonough (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Safe seat.
Putney
2010 Result:
Conservative: 21223 (52%)
Labour: 11170 (27.4%)
Lib Dem: 6907 (16.9%)
BNP: 459 (1.1%)
Green: 591 (1.4%)
UKIP: 435 (1.1%)
MAJORITY: 10053 (24.6%)
Sitting MP: Justine Greening (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold
Safe seat.
Richmond Park
2010 Result:
Conservative: 29461 (49.7%)
Labour: 2979 (5%)
Lib Dem: 25370 (42.8%)
Green: 572 (1%)
UKIP: 669 (1.1%)
Independent: 84 (0.1%)
Others: 133 (0.2%)
MAJORITY: 4091 (6.9%)
Sitting MP: Zac Goldsmith (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold
Zac Goldsmith won this sear by a bigger majority than anyone expected. It’s difficult to see him being shifted in May.
Sutton & Cheam
2010 Result:
Conservative: 20548 (42.4%)
Labour: 3376 (7%)
Lib Dem: 22156 (45.7%)
BNP: 1014 (2.1%)
Green: 246 (0.5%)
UKIP: 950 (2%)
English Dem: 106 (0.2%)
Others: 112 (0.2%)
MAJORITY: 1608 (3.3%)
Sitting MP: Paul Burstow (LibDem)
Prediction: Narrow Conservative gain
The Labour vote has halved to 7.7% since 1997 and will inevitably
rise in 2015. Paul Burstow is standing again and incumbency could play a
vital role if he is to retain his seat, but if the Tory vote holds up,
he may have a problem.
Twickenham
2010 Result:
Conservative: 20343 (34.1%)
Labour: 4583 (7.7%)
Lib Dem: 32483 (54.4%)
BNP: 654 (1.1%)
Green: 674 (1.1%)
UKIP: 868 (1.5%)
Others: 116 (0.2%)
MAJORITY: 12140 (20.3%)
Sitting MP: Vince Cable (LibDem)
Prediction: LibDem hold
I have changed this seat from a dead cert LibDem Hold to probable.
It’s known that Vince Cable has become very nervous about his prospects
and the Tories have become quite active here. Much is dependent on
whether Labour will siphon off former LibDem votes, although these could
be cancelled out by the UKIP votes lost by the Tories.
Wimbledon
2010 Result:
Conservative: 23257 (49.1%)
Labour: 10550 (22.3%)
Lib Dem: 11849 (25%)
Green: 590 (1.2%)
UKIP: 914 (1.9%)
Christian: 235 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 11408 (24.1%)
Sitting MP: Stephen Hammond (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold
Safe seat.
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