Seats: 14
Current Political Makeup: Lab 13, LibDem 1
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Lab 13, LibDem 1
1. Barnsley Central
2010 Result:
Conservative: 6388 (17.3%)
Labour: 17487 (47.3%)
Lib Dem: 6394 (17.3%)
BNP: 3307 (8.9%)
UKIP: 1727 (4.7%)
Independent: 732 (2%)
Others: 966 (2.6%)
MAJORITY: 11093 (30%)
Sitting MP: Dan Jarvis (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Safe seat.
2. Barnsley East
2010 Result:
Conservative: 6329 (16.5%)
Labour: 18059 (47%)
Lib Dem: 6969 (18.2%)
BNP: 3301 (8.6%)
UKIP: 1731 (4.5%)
Independent: 712 (1.9%)
Others: 1285 (3.3%)
MAJORITY: 11090 (28.9%)
Sitting MP: Michael Dugher (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Safe seat.
3. Don Valley
2010 Result:
Conservative: 12877 (29.7%)
Labour: 16472 (37.9%)
Lib Dem: 7422 (17.1%)
BNP: 2112 (4.9%)
UKIP: 1904 (4.4%)
English Dem: 1756 (4%)
Independent: 877 (2%)
MAJORITY: 3595 (8.3%)
Sitting MP: Caroline Flint (Lab)
Prediction: Increased Labour majority
Not a safe seat, but will be after May, as the LibDem vote splinters to Labour.
4. Doncaster Central
2010 Result:
Conservative: 10340 (24.8%)
Labour: 16569 (39.7%)
Lib Dem: 8795 (21.1%)
BNP: 1762 (4.2%)
UKIP: 1421 (3.4%)
English Dem: 1816 (4.4%)
Independent: 970 (2.3%)
Others: 72 (0.2%)
MAJORITY: 6229 (14.9%)
Sitting MP: Rosie Winterton (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Safe seat.
5. Doncaster North
2010 Result:
Conservative: 8728 (21%)
Labour: 19637 (47.3%)
Lib Dem: 6174 (14.9%)
BNP: 2818 (6.8%)
UKIP: 1797 (4.3%)
English Dem: 2148 (5.2%)
TUSC: 181 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 10909 (26.3%)
Sitting MP: Ed Miliband (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Safe seat.
6. Penistone & Stocksbridge
2010 Result:
Conservative: 14516 (31.2%)
Labour: 17565 (37.8%)
Lib Dem: 9800 (21.1%)
BNP: 2207 (4.7%)
UKIP: 1936 (4.2%)
English Dem: 492 (1.1%)
MAJORITY: 3049 (6.6%)
Sitting MP: Angela Smith (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Not a safe seat, but again, the Labour majority is likely to increase.
7. Rother Valley
2010 Result:
Conservative: 13281 (28.4%)
Labour: 19147 (40.9%)
Lib Dem: 8111 (17.3%)
BNP: 3606 (7.7%)
UKIP: 2613 (5.6%)
MAJORITY: 5866 (12.5%)
Sitting MP: Kevin Barron (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Safe seat.
8. Rotherham
2010 Result:
Conservative: 6279 (16.7%)
Labour: 16741 (44.6%)
Lib Dem: 5994 (16%)
BNP: 3906 (10.4%)
UKIP: 2220 (5.9%)
Independent: 2366 (6.3%)
MAJORITY: 10462 (27.9%)
BY ELECTION
Sarah Champion (Labour) 9866 46.3% (1.7%)
Jane Collins (UKIP) 4648 21.8% (15.9%)
Marlene Guest (BNP) 1804 8.5% (-1.9%)
Yvonne Ridley (Respect) 1778 8.3% (n/a)
Simon Wilson (Conservative) 1157 5.4% (-11.3%)
David Wildgoose (English Democrats) 703 3.3% (n/a)
Simon Copley (Independent) 582 2.7% (n/a)
Michael Beckett (Liberal Democrat) 451 2.1% (-13.9%)
Ralph Dyson (TUSC) 261 1.2% (n/a)
Paul Dickson (Independent) 51 0.2% (n/a)
Clint Bristow (no description) 29 0.1% (n/a)
MAJORITY 5218 24.5%
Turnout 33.9% (-25.1%)
Sitting MP: Sarah Champion (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
UKIP think they have a chance here, but if they do, they will need to do much better than they did in the by-election. Unlikely.
9. Sheffield Brightside & Hillsborough
2010 Result:
Conservative: 4468 (11.5%)
Labour: 21400 (55%)
Lib Dem: 7768 (20%)
BNP: 3026 (7.8%)
UKIP: 1596 (4.1%)
TUSC: 656 (1.7%)
MAJORITY: 13632 (35%)
Sitting MP: David Blunkett (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Safe seat., David Blunkett is standing down and will be replaced by Harry Harpham.
10. Sheffield Central
2010 Result:
Conservative: 4206 (10.1%)
Labour: 17138 (41.3%)
Lib Dem: 16973 (40.9%)
BNP: 903 (2.2%)
Green: 1556 (3.8%)
UKIP: 652 (1.6%)
Independent: 40 (0.1%)
MAJORITY: 165 (0.4%)
Sitting MP: Paul Blomfield (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
The LibDems just failed to take this seat last time. Their only hope this time (and it’s not much of one) is for Labour to put all their resources into unseating Nick Clegg.
11. Sheffield Hallam
2010 Result:
Conservative: 12040 (23.5%)
Labour: 8228 (16.1%)
Lib Dem: 27324 (53.4%)
Green: 919 (1.8%)
UKIP: 1195 (2.3%)
English Dem: 586 (1.1%)
Christian: 250 (0.5%)
Independent: 429 (0.8%)
Others: 164 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 15284 (29.9%)
Sitting MP: Nick Clegg (LibDem)
Prediction: LibDem hold
This used to be a Tory seat, but it would take a political earthquake for them to take it off Nick Clegg. Interestingly the Labour vote has started to rise, but not enough to cause the LibDems to panic. Yet. If the LibDems are obliterated, then Clegg will probably be obliterated too, but if they retain around half their seats, this ought to be one of them. Or will there be a Clegg effect, which means the LibDems will fare worse here than elsewhere.
*12. Sheffield Heeley
2010 Result:
Conservative: 7081 (17.3%)
Labour: 17409 (42.6%)
Lib Dem: 11602 (28.4%)
BNP: 2260 (5.5%)
Green: 989 (2.4%)
UKIP: 1530 (3.7%)
MAJORITY: 5807 (14.2%)
Sitting MP: Meg Munn (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Safe seat.
13. Sheffield South East
2010 Result:
Conservative: 7202 (17.4%)
Labour: 20169 (48.7%)
Lib Dem: 9664 (23.3%)
BNP: 2345 (5.7%)
UKIP: 1889 (4.6%)
Others: 139 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 10505 (25.4%)
Sitting MP: Clive Betts (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Safe seat.
14. Wentworth & Dearne
2010 Result:
Conservative: 7396 (17.6%)
Labour: 21316 (50.6%)
Lib Dem: 6787 (16.1%)
BNP: 3189 (7.6%)
UKIP: 3418 (8.1%)
MAJORITY: 13920 (33.1%)
Sitting MP: John Healey (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Safe seat.
Seats: 22
Current Political Makeup: Con 7, Lab 12, LibDem 2, Respect 1
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Con 4, Lab 16, LibDem 1, Respect 1
1. Batley & Spen
2010 Result:
Conservative: 17159 (33.6%)
Labour: 21565 (42.2%)
Lib Dem: 8095 (15.8%)
BNP: 3685 (7.2%)
Green: 605 (1.2%)
MAJORITY: 4406 (8.6%)
Sitting MP: Mike Wood (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Held by Labour since 1997 and unlikely to change hands in 2010.
2. Bradford East
2010 Result:
Conservative: 10860 (26.8%)
Labour: 13272 (32.8%)
Lib Dem: 13637 (33.7%)
BNP: 1854 (4.6%)
Independent: 375 (0.9%)
Others: 459 (1.1%)
MAJORITY: 365 (0.9%)
Sitting MP: David Ward (LibDem)
Prediction: Labour gain
A dead cert Labour gain, I’d have thought, and a result which will bring joy to jewish people all over the country.
3. Bradford South
2010 Result:
Conservative: 11060 (29.1%)
Labour: 15682 (41.3%)
Lib Dem: 6948 (18.3%)
BNP: 2651 (7%)
UKIP: 1339 (3.5%)
Others: 315 (0.8%)
MAJORITY: 4622 (12.2%)
Sitting MP: Gerry Sutcliffe (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Hard to see anything other than a Labour hold here.
4. Bradford West
2010 Result:
Conservative: 12638 (31.1%)
Labour: 18401 (45.3%)
Lib Dem: 4732 (11.7%)
BNP: 1370 (3.4%)
Green: 940 (2.3%)
UKIP: 812 (2%)
Respect: 1245 (3.1%)
Others: 438 (1.1%)
MAJORITY: 5763 (14.2%)
BY-ELECTION
George Galloway (Respect) 18341 55.9% (52.8%)
Imran Hussain (Labour) 8201 25% (-20.3%)
Jackie Whiteley (Conservative) 2746 8.4% (-22.7%)
Jeanette Sunderland (Liberal Democrat) 1505 4.6% (-7.1%)
Sonja McNally (UKIP) 1085 3.3% (1.3%)
Dawud Islam (Green) 481 1.5% (-0.8%)
Neil Craig (Democratic Nationalists) 344 1% (-0.1%)
Howling Laud Hope (Loony) 111 0.3% (n/a)
MAJORITY 10140 30.9%
Turnout 50% (-14.9%)
Sitting MP: George Galloway (Respect)
Prediction: Respect hold
Given the majority in the by-election you’d think George Galloway would be a shoo-in. And the sad truth is that he almost certainly will be.
5. Calder Valley
2010 Result:
Conservative: 20397 (39.4%)
Labour: 13966 (27%)
Lib Dem: 13037 (25.2%)
BNP: 1823 (3.5%)
Green: 858 (1.7%)
UKIP: 1173 (2.3%)
English Dem: 157 (0.3%)
Independent: 194 (0.4%)
Others: 175 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 6431 (12.4%)
Sitting MP: Craig Whittaker (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold
Should be a Tory hold although Labour will have a good go at this seat if they can attract over a few thousand LibDem voters.
6. Colne Valley
2010 Result:
Conservative: 20440 (37%)
Labour: 14589 (26.4%)
Lib Dem: 15603 (28.2%)
BNP: 1893 (3.4%)
Green: 867 (1.6%)
UKIP: 1163 (2.1%)
TUSC: 741 (1.3%)
MAJORITY: 4837 (8.7%)
Sitting MP: Jason McCartney (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold
McCartney benefits from a split opposition. His majority will undoubtedly be cut, but it can only be eradicated if Labour wins over a lot of LibDem voters.
7. Dewsbury
2010 Result:
Conservative: 18898 (35%)
Labour: 17372 (32.2%)
Lib Dem: 9150 (16.9%)
BNP: 3265 (6%)
Green: 849 (1.6%)
English Dem: 661 (1.2%)
Independent: 3813 (7.1%)
MAJORITY: 1526 (2.8%)
Sitting MP: Simon Reevell (Con)
Prediction: Labour gain
The Ashcroft poll in this seat puts Labour on 40%, the Tories on 30% and UKIP on 18%. Local election results also show Labour in the lead.
8. Elmet & Rothwell
2010 Result:
Conservative: 23778 (42.6%)
Labour: 19257 (34.5%)
Lib Dem: 9109 (16.3%)
BNP: 1802 (3.2%)
UKIP: 1593 (2.9%)
Independent: 250 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 4521 (8.1%)
Sitting MP: Alec Shelbrooke
Prediction: Conservative hold
This one could be very close indeed, but Shelbrooke had got a good local reputation and the local elections went in his favour. I reckon he will pull through but there might only be a few hundred votes in it.
9. Halifax
2010 Result:
Conservative: 14806 (34%)
Labour: 16278 (37.4%)
Lib Dem: 8335 (19.1%)
BNP: 2760 (6.3%)
UKIP: 654 (1.5%)
Others: 722 (1.7%)
MAJORITY: 1472 (3.4%)
Sitting MP: Linda Riordan (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
The Tories had high hopes here last time but they didn’t quite manage it. Labour will hang on with an increased majority.
10. Hemsworth
2010 Result:
Conservative: 10662 (24.3%)
Labour: 20506 (46.8%)
Lib Dem: 5667 (12.9%)
BNP: 3059 (7%)
Independent: 3946 (9%)
MAJORITY: 9844 (22.5%)
Sitting MP: Jon Trickett (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
11. Huddersfield
2010 Result:
Conservative: 11253 (27.8%)
Labour: 15725 (38.8%)
Lib Dem: 10023 (24.7%)
BNP: 1563 (3.9%)
Green: 1641 (4%)
TUSC: 319 (0.8%)
MAJORITY: 4472 (11%)
Sitting MP: Barry Sheerman (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Safe-ish seat.
12. Keighley
2010 Result:
Conservative: 20003 (41.9%)
Labour: 17063 (35.8%)
Lib Dem: 7059 (14.8%)
BNP: 1962 (4.1%)
UKIP: 1470 (3.1%)
Others: 135 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 2940 (6.2%)
Sitting MP: Kris Hopkins (Con)
Prediction: Labour gain
Not a dead cert Labour gain, it has to be said, but Hopkins would be the toast of the Tory Party if he manages to hold this seat. In the Ashcroft poll UKIP scored 23% and it’s clear that a lot of these are ex Conservatives. He needs UKIP to eat into the Labour vote.
13. Leeds Central
2010 Result:
Conservative: 7541 (20.2%)
Labour: 18434 (49.3%)
Lib Dem: 7789 (20.8%)
BNP: 3066 (8.2%)
Independent: 409 (1.1%)
Others: 155 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 10645 (28.5%)
Sitting MP: Hilary Benn (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Safe seat.
14. Leeds East
2010 Result:
Conservative: 8763 (23.2%)
Labour: 19056 (50.4%)
Lib Dem: 6618 (17.5%)
BNP: 2947 (7.8%)
Others: 429 (1.1%)
MAJORITY: 10293 (27.2%)
Sitting MP: George Mudie (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Safe seat.
15. Leeds North East
2010 Result:
Conservative: 15742 (33.1%)
Labour: 20287 (42.7%)
Lib Dem: 9310 (19.6%)
BNP: 758 (1.6%)
UKIP: 842 (1.8%)
Others: 596 (1.3%)
MAJORITY: 4545 (9.6%)
Sitting MP: Fabian Hamilton (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Sir Keith Joseph’s former seat, it hasn’t been Tory since 1992. It’s unlikely to go back to the blue corner in 2010.
16. Leeds North West
2010 Result:
Conservative: 11550 (26.6%)
Labour: 9132 (21%)
Lib Dem: 20653 (47.5%)
BNP: 766 (1.8%)
Green: 508 (1.2%)
UKIP: 600 (1.4%)
English Dem: 153 (0.4%)
Others: 121 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 9103 (20.9%)
Sitting MP: Greg Mulholland (LibDem)
Prediction: LibDem hold
If there is any such thing as a safe LibDem seat, this is it. It’s got a split opposition and Greg Mulholland has worked the constituency like only a LibDem knows how to. I’d be astonished if he lost.
17. Leeds West
2010 Result:
Conservative: 7641 (19.7%)
Labour: 16389 (42.3%)
Lib Dem: 9373 (24.2%)
BNP: 2377 (6.1%)
Green: 1832 (4.7%)
UKIP: 1140 (2.9%)
MAJORITY: 7016 (18.1%)
Sitting MP: Rachel Reeves
Prediction: Labour hold
Safe seat.
18. Morley & Outwood
2010 Result:
Conservative: 17264 (35.3%)
Labour: 18365 (37.6%)
Lib Dem: 8186 (16.8%)
BNP: 3535 (7.2%)
UKIP: 1506 (3.1%)
MAJORITY: 1101 (2.3%)
Sitting MP: Ed Balls (Lab)
Prediction: Increased Labour majority.
The Tories really thought they might win this seat last time, and they came much closer than pundits predicted. Can they oust their bogeyman this time? It’s highly unlikely. UKIP have done well here in the local elections and may well take a large number of votes from the Tories. Expect Ed Balls’ majority to rocket.
19. Normanton, Pontefract & Castleford
2010 Result:
Conservative: 11314 (24.5%)
Labour: 22293 (48.2%)
Lib Dem: 7585 (16.4%)
BNP: 3864 (8.4%)
Independent: 1183 (2.6%)
MAJORITY: 10979 (23.7%)
Sitting MP: Yvette Cooper (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Safe seat.
20. Pudsey
2010 Result:
Conservative: 18874 (38.5%)
Labour: 17215 (35.1%)
Lib Dem: 10224 (20.8%)
BNP: 1549 (3.2%)
UKIP: 1221 (2.5%)
MAJORITY: 1659 (3.4%)
Sitting MP: Stuart Andrew (Con)
Prediction: Narrow Labour gain
Very difficult to call. The Ashcroft poll has Labour and the Tories at 36% each. There’s a substantial LibDem vote to eek out. I think this is a seat where the majority may well be under 500.
21. Shipley
2010 Result:
Conservative: 24002 (48.6%)
Labour: 14058 (28.4%)
Lib Dem: 9890 (20%)
Green: 1477 (3%)
MAJORITY: 9944 (20.1%)
Sitting MP: Philip Davies (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold
22. Wakefield
2010 Result:
Conservative: 15841 (35.6%)
Labour: 17454 (39.3%)
Lib Dem: 7256 (16.3%)
BNP: 2581 (5.8%)
Green: 873 (2%)
Independent: 439 (1%)
MAJORITY: 1613 (3.6%)
Sitting MP: Mary Creagh (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
A narrow majority, but Mary Creagh will be safe here, surely. Ed Miliband certainly can’t afford to lose her. UKIP have eaten into the Tory vote and may well come second. They beat the Tories in the 2014 local elections.
Seats: 10
Current Political Makeup: Con 5, Lab 5
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Con 5, Labour 5
1. Beverley & Holderness
2010 Result:
Conservative: 25063 (47.1%)
Labour: 11224 (21.1%)
Lib Dem: 12076 (22.7%)
BNP: 2080 (3.9%)
Green: 686 (1.3%)
UKIP: 1845 (3.5%)
Independent: 225 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 12987 (24.4%)
Sitting MP: Graham Stuart (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold
Safe seat
2. Brigg & Goole
2010 Result:
Conservative: 19680 (44.9%)
Labour: 14533 (33.1%)
Lib Dem: 6414 (14.6%)
BNP: 1498 (3.4%)
UKIP: 1749 (4%)
MAJORITY: 5147 (11.7%)
Sitting MP: Andrew Percy (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold
A Labour seat since 1997 Andrew Percy did well to win such a large majority in 2010. He will be expecting his majority to fall but I think he will squeeze home. He’s been an independent minded MP and the Tories have finished first in every local election here since 2007.
3. Cleethorpes
2010 Result:
Conservative: 18939 (42.1%)
Labour: 14641 (32.6%)
Lib Dem: 8192 (18.2%)
UKIP: 3194 (7.1%)
MAJORITY: 4298 (9.6%)
Sitting MP: Martin Vickers (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold
UKIP have their sights set on this seat. While they may not win it they may determine its outcome, depending on which party they take most votes from. I think Martin Vickers will narrowly hang on.
4. East Yorkshire
2010 Result:
Conservative: 24328 (47.5%)
Labour: 10401 (20.3%)
Lib Dem: 10842 (21.2%)
BNP: 1865 (3.6%)
Green: 762 (1.5%)
UKIP: 2142 (4.2%)
Others: 914 (1.8%)
MAJORITY: 13486 (26.3%)
Sitting MP: Greg Knight (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold
Safe seat.
5. Great Grimsby
Conservative: 10063 (30.5%)
Labour: 10777 (32.7%)
Lib Dem: 7388 (22.4%)
BNP: 1517 (4.6%)
UKIP: 2043 (6.2%)
Independent: 835 (2.5%)
Others: 331 (1%)
MAJORITY: 714 (2.2%)
Sitting MP: Austin Mitchell (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
A formerly very safe Labour seat this nearly went to the Tories in 2010. Ordinarily they might make a push this time, but there’s the UKIP fly in the ointment. Their candidate, Victoria Ayling, stood here for the Tories last time and is quite high profile. However, I just can’t see them taking this seat or coming anywhere near it to be frank. All I can see here is an increased Labour majority.
6. Haltemprice & Howden
2010 Result:
Conservative: 24486 (50.2%)
Labour: 7630 (15.7%)
Lib Dem: 12884 (26.4%)
BNP: 1583 (3.2%)
Green: 669 (1.4%)
English Dem: 1485 (3%)
MAJORITY: 11602 (23.8%)
Sitting MP: David Davis (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold
Safe seat.
7. Hull East
2010 Result:
Conservative: 5667 (16.6%)
Labour: 16387 (47.9%)
Lib Dem: 7790 (22.8%)
UKIP: 2745 (8%)
English Dem: 715 (2.1%)
Others: 880 (2.6%)
MAJORITY: 8597 (25.1%)
Sitting MP: Karl Turner (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Safe seat.
8. Hull North
2010 Result:
Conservative: 4365 (13.1%)
Labour: 13044 (39.2%)
Lib Dem: 12403 (37.3%)
BNP: 1443 (4.3%)
Green: 478 (1.4%)
UKIP: 1358 (4.1%)
English Dem: 200 (0.6%)
MAJORITY: 641 (1.9%)
Sitting MP: Diana Johnson (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Another seat the LibDems nearly won in 2010. They won’t come anywhere close in May.
9. Hull West & Hessle
2010 Result:
Conservative: 6361 (20.2%)
Labour: 13378 (42.5%)
Lib Dem: 7636 (24.2%)
BNP: 1416 (4.5%)
UKIP: 1688 (5.4%)
English Dem: 876 (2.8%)
TUSC: 150 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 5742 (18.2%)
Sitting MP: Alan Johnson (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Probably an increased majority for Alan AJ Johnson.
10. Scunthorpe
2010 Result:
Conservative: 12091 (32.6%)
Labour: 14640 (39.5%)
Lib Dem: 6774 (18.3%)
BNP: 1447 (3.9%)
Green: 396 (1.1%)
UKIP: 1686 (4.6%)
MAJORITY: 2549 (6.9%)
Sitting MP: Nicholas Dakin (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Not a huge majority but it’s difficult to imagine anything different other than a Labour hold. One for the Tories to target in 2020.
Seats: 8
Current Political Makeup: Con 7, Lab 1
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Con 7, Labour 1
1. Harrogate & Knaresborough
2010 Result:
Conservative: 24305 (45.7%)
Labour: 3413 (6.4%)
Lib Dem: 23266 (43.8%)
BNP: 1094 (2.1%)
UKIP: 1056 (2%)
MAJORITY: 1039 (2%)
Sitting MP: Andrew Jones (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold
A surprise gain for the Tories at the last election, Andrew Jones overturned a 10k majority. He will win again.
2. Richmond
2010 Result:
Conservative: 33541 (62.8%)
Labour: 8150 (15.3%)
Lib Dem: 10205 (19.1%)
Green: 1516 (2.8%)
MAJORITY: 23336 (43.7%)
Sitting MP: William Hague (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold
Safe seat.
3. Scarborough & Whitby
2010 Result:
Conservative: 21108 (42.8%)
Labour: 12978 (26.3%)
Lib Dem: 11093 (22.5%)
BNP: 1445 (2.9%)
Green: 734 (1.5%)
UKIP: 1484 (3%)
Independent: 329 (0.7%)
Others: 111 (0.2%)
MAJORITY: 8130 (16.5%)
Sitting MP: Robert Goodwill (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold
Not quite a safe seat, but anything other than a Tory hold here is somewhat unlikely.
4. Selby & Ainsty
2010 Result:
Conservative: 25562 (49.4%)
Labour: 13297 (25.7%)
Lib Dem: 9180 (17.7%)
BNP: 1377 (2.7%)
UKIP: 1635 (3.2%)
English Dem: 677 (1.3%)
MAJORITY: 12265 (23.7%)
Sitting MP: Nigel Adams (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold
Safe seat.
5. Skipton & Ripon
2010 Result:
Conservative: 27685 (50.6%)
Labour: 5498 (10%)
Lib Dem: 17735 (32.4%)
BNP: 1403 (2.6%)
UKIP: 1909 (3.5%)
Independent: 315 (0.6%)
Others: 179 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 9950 (18.2%)
Sitting MP: Julian Smith (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold
Safe seat.
6. Thirsk & Malton
2010 Result:
Conservative: 20167 (52.9%)
Labour: 5169 (13.6%)
Lib Dem: 8886 (23.3%)
UKIP: 2502 (6.6%)
Liberal: 1418 (3.7%)
MAJORITY: 11281 (29.6%)
Sitting MP: Anne McIntosh (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold
Anne McIntosh has been deselected and is threatening to stand as an independent. She’ll no doubt be bought off with the promise of a seat in the Lords, but even if she did stand again, surely the Tory majority here is too large for the seat to be lost to another party.
7. York Central
2010 Result:
Conservative: 12122 (26.1%)
Labour: 18573 (40%)
Lib Dem: 11694 (25.2%)
BNP: 1171 (2.5%)
Green: 1669 (3.6%)
UKIP: 1100 (2.4%)
Others: 154 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 6451 (13.9%)
Sitting MP: Sir Hugh Bayley (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
This was briefly a Tory seat in the 1980s but Labour now benefits from a split opposition.
8. York Outer
2010 Result:
Conservative: 22912 (43%)
Labour: 9108 (17.1%)
Lib Dem: 19224 (36.1%)
BNP: 956 (1.8%)
UKIP: 1100 (2.1%)
MAJORITY: 3688 (6.9%)
Sitting MP: Julian Sturdy (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold
Julian Sturdy can be confident of getting an increased majority here.
No comments:
Post a Comment