IAIN DALES General Election Predictions: Merseyside

Merseyside (Part 2)
Seats: 7
Current Political Makeup: Con 1, Lab 5, LibDem 1
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Con 2, Lab 5
9. Sefton Central
2010 Result:
Conservative: 16445 (33.9%)
Labour: 20307 (41.9%)
Lib Dem: 9656 (19.9%)
UKIP: 2055 (4.2%)
MAJORITY: 3862 (8%)
Sitting MP: Bill Esterson (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Probably an increased majority.
10. Southport
2010 Result:
Conservative: 15683 (35.8%)
Labour: 4116 (9.4%)
Lib Dem: 21707 (49.6%)
UKIP: 2251 (5.1%)
MAJORITY: 6024 (13.8%)
Sitting MP: John Pugh (LibDem)
Prediction: Conservative gain
This seat has alternated between the LibDems and Conservatives for years, although the last time the Tories won it was in 1992. Labour are nowhere here.
11. St Helens North
2010 Result:
Conservative: 9940 (22.3%)
Labour: 23041 (51.7%)
Lib Dem: 8992 (20.2%)
UKIP: 2100 (4.7%)
Others: 483 (1.1%)
MAJORITY: 13101 (29.4%)
Sitting MP: Dave Watts (Lab)
Preediction: Labour hold
12. St Helens South & Whiston
2010 Result:
Conservative: 8209 (17.8%)
Labour: 24364 (52.9%)
Lib Dem: 10242 (22.2%)
BNP: 2040 (4.4%)
UKIP: 1226 (2.7%)
MAJORITY: 14122 (30.6%)
Sitting MP: Shaun Woodward (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Safe seat.
13. Wallasey
2010 Result:
Conservative: 13071 (31.4%)
Labour: 21578 (51.8%)
Lib Dem: 5693 (13.7%)
UKIP: 1205 (2.9%)
Independent: 107 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 8507 (20.4%)
Sitting MP: Angela Eagle (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Safe seat
14. Wirral South
2010 Result:
Conservative: 15745 (39.5%)
Labour: 16276 (40.8%)
Lib Dem: 6611 (16.6%)
UKIP: 1274 (3.2%)
MAJORITY: 531 (1.3%)
Sitting MP: Alison McGovern (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Labour just held on to this seat last time. If the LibDem vote goes their way they will do so again.
15. Wirral West
2010 Result:
Conservative: 16726 (42.5%)
Labour: 14290 (36.3%)
Lib Dem: 6630 (16.8%)
UKIP: 899 (2.3%)
Independent: 506 (1.3%)
Others: 321 (0.8%)
MAJORITY: 2436 (6.2%)
Sitting MP: Esther McVey (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold
Liverpool Labour are determined to win this seat back, but the Ashcroft poll has Esther McVey only one point behind, which surely has to be encouraging for her. I reckon she’ll pull it off, but there may be only a few hundred votes in it.

Merseyside (Part 1)
Seats: 8
Current Political Makeup: Lab 8
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Lab 8
1. Birkenhead
2010 Result:
Conservative: 6687 (18.9%)
Labour: 22082 (62.5%)
Lib Dem: 6554 (18.6%)
MAJORITY: 15395 (43.6%)
Sitting MP: Frank Field (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Safe seat.
2. Bootle
2010 Result:
Conservative: 3678 (8.9%)
Labour: 27426 (66.4%)
Lib Dem: 6245 (15.1%)
BNP: 942 (2.3%)
UKIP: 2514 (6.1%)
TUSC: 472 (1.1%)
MAJORITY: 21181 (51.3%)
Sitting MP: Joe Benton (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Safe seat.
3. Garston & Halewood
2010 Result:
Conservative: 6908 (16.1%)
Labour: 25493 (59.5%)
Lib Dem: 8616 (20.1%)
UKIP: 1540 (3.6%)
Respect: 268 (0.6%)
MAJORITY: 16877 (39.4%)
Sitting MP: Maria Eagle (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
4. Knowsley
2010 Result:
Conservative: 4004 (9%)
Labour: 31650 (70.9%)
Lib Dem: 5964 (13.4%)
BNP: 1895 (4.2%)
UKIP: 1145 (2.6%)
MAJORITY: 25686 (57.5%)
Sitting MP: George Howarth (Lab)
Prediction: :Labour hold
Safe seat.
5. Liverpool Riverside
2010 Result:
Conservative: 4243 (10.9%)
Labour: 22998 (59.3%)
Lib Dem: 8825 (22.7%)
BNP: 706 (1.8%)
Green: 1355 (3.5%)
UKIP: 674 (1.7%)
MAJORITY: 14173 (36.5%)
Sitting MP: Louise Ellman (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Safe seat.
6. Liverpool Walton
2010 Result:
Conservative: 2241 (6.5%)
Labour: 24709 (72%)
Lib Dem: 4891 (14.2%)
BNP: 1104 (3.2%)
UKIP: 898 (2.6%)
TUSC: 195 (0.6%)
Others: 297 (0.9%)
MAJORITY: 19818 (57.7%)
Sitting MP: Steve Rotheram (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Safe seat.
7. Liverpool Wavertree
2010 Result:
Conservative: 2830 (7.5%)
Labour: 20132 (53.1%)
Lib Dem: 12965 (34.2%)
BNP: 150 (0.4%)
Green: 598 (1.6%)
UKIP: 890 (2.3%)
Independent: 149 (0.4%)
Others: 200 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 7167 (18.9%)
Sitting MP: Luciana Berger (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
8. Liverpool West Derby
2010 Result:
Conservative: 3311 (9.3%)
Labour: 22953 (64.1%)
Lib Dem: 4486 (12.5%)
UKIP: 1093 (3.1%)
Liberal: 3327 (9.3%)
Others: 614 (1.7%)
MAJORITY: 18467 (51.6%)
Sitting MP: Stephen Twigg (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Safe seat.