IAIN DALES General Election Predictions: Oxfordshire

Originally posed here >>> http://www.iaindale.com/

Oxfordshire
Seats: 6
Current Political Makeup: Con 5, Lab 1
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Con 5, Lab 1
1. Banbury
2010 Result:
Conservative: 29703 (52.8%)
Labour: 10773 (19.2%)
Lib Dem: 11476 (20.4%)
Green: 959 (1.7%)
UKIP: 2806 (5%)
Independent: 524 (0.9%)
MAJORITY: 18227 (32.4%)
Sitting MP: Sir Tony Baldry (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold
Safe seat. Sir Tony Baldry is standing down.
2. Henley
2010 Result:
Conservative: 30054 (56.2%)
Labour: 5835 (10.9%)
Lib Dem: 13466 (25.2%)
BNP: 1020 (1.9%)
Green: 1328 (2.5%)
UKIP: 1817 (3.4%)
MAJORITY: 16588 (31%)
Sitting MP: John Howell (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold
Safe seat.
3. Oxford East
2010 Result:
Conservative: 9727 (18.8%)
Labour: 21938 (42.5%)
Lib Dem: 17357 (33.6%)
Green: 1238 (2.4%)
UKIP: 1202 (2.3%)
Others: 189 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 4581 (8.9%)
Sitting MP: Andrew Smith (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Andrew Smith came within a whisker of losing this seat in 2005 but was safely home in 2010. He will be again.
4. Oxford West & Abingdon
2010 Result:
Conservative: 23906 (42.3%)
Labour: 5999 (10.6%)
Lib Dem: 23730 (42%)
Green: 1184 (2.1%)
UKIP: 1518 (2.7%)
Others: 143 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 176 (0.3%)
Sitting MP: Nicola Blackwood (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold
Slightly to her own surprise, I suspect, Nicola Blackwood beat Evan Harris in 2010 (thus gaining the thanks of many LibDems!) and I’d say is a dead cert to dramatically increase her majority in May. LibDems firmly believe they will retake the seat, but never seem to offer any firm reason as to why. The Labour vote has been squeezed to the pips and can’t reduce much further. The LibDems’only hope is for UKIP to take votes from Nicola Blackwood, but, well, how can I put it, is Oxford really the kind of place to vote UKIP?
5 Wantage
2010 Result:
Conservative: 29284 (52%)
Labour: 7855 (13.9%)
Lib Dem: 15737 (27.9%)
Green: 1044 (1.9%)
UKIP: 2421 (4.3%)
MAJORITY: 13547 (24%)
Sitting MP: Ed Vaizey (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold
Safe seat.
6. Witney
2010 Result:
Conservative: 33973 (58.8%)
Labour: 7511 (13%)
Lib Dem: 11233 (19.4%)
Green: 2385 (4.1%)
UKIP: 2001 (3.5%)
Independent: 166 (0.3%)
Others: 500 (0.9%)
MAJORITY: 22740 (39.4%)
Sitting MP: David Cameron (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold
Safe seat.