Seats: 9
Current Political Makeup: Con 3, Lab 5, LibDem 1
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Con 3, Labour 6
Camberwell & Peckham
2010 Result:
Conservative: 6080 (13%)
Labour: 27619 (59.2%)
Lib Dem: 10432 (22.4%)
Green: 1361 (2.9%)
English Dem: 435 (0.9%)
Independent: 93 (0.2%)
Others: 639 (1.4%)
MAJORITY: 17187 (36.8%)
Sitting MP: Harriet Harman (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Safe seat
Carshalton & Wallington
2010 Result:
Conservative: 16920 (36.8%)
Labour: 4015 (8.7%)
Lib Dem: 22180 (48.3%)
BNP: 1100 (2.4%)
Green: 355 (0.8%)
UKIP: 1348 (2.9%)
MAJORITY: 5260 (11.5%)
Sitting MP: Tom Brake (LibDem)
Prediction: Conservative gain
Somewhat charismatically challenged Brake is nevertheless a very good constituency MP and this could seem him through, but the Labour vote here is bound to recover. However, I’d say this was a 50/50 prediction and could easily go the other way. This would be the sixth time Brake has fought the seat and that counts for a lot.
Croydon Central
2010 Result:
Conservative: 19567 (39.4%)
Labour: 16688 (33.6%)
Lib Dem: 6553 (13.2%)
BNP: 1448 (2.9%)
Green: 581 (1.2%)
UKIP: 997 (2%)
Christian: 264 (0.5%)
Independent: 3239 (6.5%)
Others: 330 (0.7%)
MAJORITY: 2879 (5.8%)
Sitting MP: Gavin Barwell (Con)
Prediction: Narrow Conservative hold
Difficult one to call. The result of the last election was rather skewed by the intervention of Andrew Pelling, the former Tory candidate who stood as an independent. Many of those will have been (I assume) former Conservative voters). Gavin Barwell needs to get most of those back if he is to retain this seat. He can’t just count on his reputation as a hard working constituency MP.
Croydon North
2010 Result:
Conservative: 12466 (24.1%)
Labour: 28947 (56%)
Lib Dem: 7226 (14%)
Green: 1017 (2%)
UKIP: 891 (1.7%)
Respect: 272 (0.5%)
Christian: 586 (1.1%)
Independent: 111 (0.2%)
Others: 160 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 16481 (31.9%)
BY-ELECTION 2012
Steve Reed (Labour) 15892 64.7% (8.7%)
Andrew Stranack (Conservative) 4137 16.8% (-7.3%)
Winston McKenzie (UKIP) 1400 5.7% (4%)
Marisha Ray (Liberal Democrat) 860 3.5% (-10.5%)
Shasha Khan (Green) 855 3.5% (1.5%)
Lee Jasper (Respect) 707 2.9% (2.4%)
Stephen Hammond (Christian Peoples) 192 0.8% (n/a)
Richard Edmonds (National Front) 161 0.7% (n/a)
Ben Stevenson (Communist) 119 0.5% (+0.2%)
John Cartwright (Loony) 110 0.4% (n/a)
Simon Lane (911 was an inside job) 66 0.3% (n/a)
Robin Smith (Young Peoples) 63 0.3% (n/a)
MAJORITY 11755 47.9%
Turnout 26.5% (-34.1%)
Sitting MP: Steve Reed (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Safe seat.
Croydon South
2010 Result:
Conservative: 28684 (50.9%)
Labour: 11287 (20%)
Lib Dem: 12866 (22.8%)
Green: 981 (1.7%)
UKIP: 2504 (4.4%)
MAJORITY: 15818 (28.1%)
Sitting MP: Richard Ottaway (Con)
Prediction: Conservatuve hold
Seafe seat. Richard Ottaway is standing down. Chris Philp replaces him.
Dulwich & West Norwood
2010 Result:
Conservative: 10684 (22.2%)
Labour: 22461 (46.6%)
Lib Dem: 13096 (27.2%)
Green: 1266 (2.6%)
UKIP: 707 (1.5%)
MAJORITY: 9365 (19.4%)
Sitting MP: Dame Tessa Jowell (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Safe seat. Tessa Jowell is standing down and will be replaced by Helen Hayes.
Streatham
2010 Result:
Conservative: 8578 (18.3%)
Labour: 20037 (42.8%)
Lib Dem: 16778 (35.8%)
Green: 861 (1.8%)
English Dem: 229 (0.5%)
Christian: 237 (0.5%)
Others: 117 (0.2%)
MAJORITY: 3259 (7%)
Sitting MP: Chuka Umunna (Lab)
Prediction: Increased Labour majority
The LibDems did well here last time, but their vote is likely to diminish in May and much of it may well go to Chuka Umunna.
Tooting
2010 Result:
Conservative: 19514 (38.5%)
Labour: 22038 (43.5%)
Lib Dem: 7509 (14.8%)
Green: 609 (1.2%)
UKIP: 624 (1.2%)
Christian: 171 (0.3%)
Independent: 190 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 2524 (5%)
Sitting MP: Sadiq Khan (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
A narrow majority and it’s a seat the Tories were very confident of winning in 2010 but didn’t. Barring a major surprise, they won’t this time either.
Vauxhall
2010 Result:
Conservative: 9301 (21.5%)
Labour: 21498 (49.8%)
Lib Dem: 10847 (25.1%)
Green: 708 (1.6%)
English Dem: 289 (0.7%)
Christian: 200 (0.5%)
Others: 348 (0.8%)
MAJORITY: 10651 (24.7%)
Sitting MP: Kate Hoey (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Safe seat.
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