IAIN DALES General Election Predictions: County Durham

Originally posted here

County Durham
Seats: 7
Current Political Makeup: Lab 7
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Lab 7
1. Bishop Auckland
2010 Result:
Conservative: 10805 (26.3%)
Labour: 16023 (39%)
Lib Dem: 9189 (22.3%)
BNP: 2036 (4.9%)
UKIP: 1119 (2.7%)
Others: 1964 (4.8%)
MAJORITY: 5218 (12.7%)
Sitting MP: Helen Goodman (Lab)
Prediction
Safe seat.
2. City of Durham
2010 Result:
Conservative: 6146 (13.3%)
Labour: 20496 (44.3%)
Lib Dem: 17429 (37.7%)
BNP: 1153 (2.5%)
UKIP: 856 (1.9%)
Independent: 172 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 3067 (6.6%)
Sitting MP: Roberta Blackman-Woods (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
A LibDem target last time, but they didn’t quite pull it off. An increased Labour majority here.
3. Darlington
2010 Result:
Conservative: 13503 (31.5%)
Labour: 16891 (39.4%)
Lib Dem: 10046 (23.4%)
BNP: 1262 (2.9%)
UKIP: 1194 (2.8%)
MAJORITY: 3388 (7.9%)
Sitting MP: Jenny Chapman (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Michael Fallon was MP here between 1983 and 1992 and there are plenty of Tories who expected to win it back in 2010. It didn’t happen and the size of Labour’s majority make it unlikely to switch in May unless there’s a Tory majority of 50 or so. Some hope!
4. Easington
2010 Result:
Conservative: 4790 (13.7%)
Labour: 20579 (58.9%)
Lib Dem: 5597 (16%)
BNP: 2317 (6.6%)
UKIP: 1631 (4.7%)
MAJORITY: 14982 (42.9%)
Sitting MP: Grahame Morris (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Safe seat.
5. North Durham
2010 Result:
Conservative: 8622 (21%)
Labour: 20698 (50.5%)
Lib Dem: 8617 (21%)
BNP: 1686 (4.1%)
UKIP: 1344 (3.3%)
MAJORITY: 12076 (29.5%)
Sitting MP: Kevan Jones (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Safe seat.
6. North West Durham
2010 Result:
Conservative: 8766 (20%)
Labour: 18539 (42.3%)
Lib Dem: 10927 (24.9%)
BNP: 1852 (4.2%)
UKIP: 1259 (2.9%)
Independent: 2472 (5.6%)
MAJORITY: 7612 (17.4%)
Sitting MP: Pat Glass (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Safe seat.
7. Sedgefield
2010 Result:
Conservative: 9445 (23.5%)
Labour: 18141 (45.1%)
Lib Dem: 8033 (20%)
BNP: 2075 (5.2%)
UKIP: 1479 (3.7%)
Others: 1049 (2.6%)
MAJORITY: 8696 (21.6%)
Sitting MP: Phil Wilson (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Safe seat.