Scotland – North & Islands
Seats: 6
Current Political Makeup: LibDem 4, SNP 2
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: LibDem 4, SNP 2
1. Orkney & Shetland
2010 Result:
Conservative: 2032 (10.5%)
Labour: 2061 (10.7%)
Lib Dem: 11989 (62%)
SNP: 2042 (10.6%)
UKIP: 1222 (6.3%)
MAJORITY: 9928 (51.3%)
Sitting MP: Alistair Carmichael (LibDem)
Prediction: LibDem hold
If the LibDems were reduced to two seats, this would be one of the two. A real LibDem stronghold.
2. Na h-Eileanan an lar
2010 Result:
Conservative: 647 (4.4%)
Labour: 4838 (32.9%)
Lib Dem: 1097 (7.5%)
SNP: 6723 (45.7%)
Independent: 1412 (9.6%)
MAJORITY: 1885 (12.8%)
Sitting MP: Angus MacNeil (SNP)
Prediction: SNP hold
Smallest constituency in the country. Was a Labour seat until 2005.
3. Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross
2010 Result:
Conservative: 3744 (13%)
Labour: 7081 (24.6%)
Lib Dem: 11907 (41.4%)
SNP: 5516 (19.2%)
Independent: 520 (1.8%)
MAJORITY: 4826 (16.8%)
Sitting MP: John Thurso (LibDem)
Prediction: LibDem hold
Both Labour and the SNP think they can win this seat. Highland voters tend to give an incumbent a bigger personal vote than elsewhere and John Thurso is a very popular MP. If anyone can hold a LibDem seat on the Scottish mainland he can.
4. Ross, Skye & Lochaber
2010 Result:
Conservative: 4260 (12.2%)
Labour: 5265 (15.1%)
Lib Dem: 18335 (52.6%)
SNP: 5263 (15.1%)
Green: 777 (2.2%)
UKIP: 659 (1.9%)
Independent: 279 (0.8%)
MAJORITY: 13070 (37.5%)
Sitting MP: Charles Kennedy (LibDem)
Prediction: LibDem hold
Charles Kennedy surely has to be safe here.
5. Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch & Strathspey
2010 Result:
Conservative: 6278 (13.3%)
Labour: 10407 (22.1%)
Lib Dem: 19172 (40.7%)
SNP: 8803 (18.7%)
Green: 789 (1.7%)
UKIP: 574 (1.2%)
Christian: 835 (1.8%)
TUSC: 135 (0.3%)
Others: 93 (0.2%)
MAJORITY: 8765 (18.6%)
Sitting MP: Danny Alexander (LibDem)
Prediction: LibDem hold
This seat has unsurprisingly received a lot of Treasury ‘pork’ and the LibDems are putting huge financial resources into it. However, the SNP think it is theirs for the taking and have selected the local council leader Drew Hendry to fight it. Why? They got 51% of the vote in the Holyrood election with the LibDems only scoring 12%. An ICM poll also had the LibDems down 25% and them coming in third place. If this really happened it would evidence of a complete meltdown for the LibDems in Scotland. However the poll size was only 309 so I don’t set much store by that.
6. Moray
2010 Result:
Conservative: 10683 (26.1%)
Labour: 7007 (17.1%)
Lib Dem: 5956 (14.5%)
SNP: 16273 (39.7%)
UKIP: 1085 (2.6%)
MAJORITY: 5590 (13.6%)
Sitting MP: Angus Robertson (SNP)
Prediction: SNP hold
No problems for the Westminster leader (for now!) of the SNP.
Seats: 6
Current Political Makeup: Lab 2, LibDem 2, SNP 2
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Con 1, Lab 1, SNP 4
7. Banff & Buchan
2010 Result:
Conservative: 11841 (30.8%)
Labour: 5382 (14%)
Lib Dem: 4365 (11.3%)
SNP: 15868 (41.3%)
BNP: 1010 (2.6%)
MAJORITY: 4027 (10.5%)
Sitting MP: Eilidh Whiteford (SNP)
Prediction: SNP hold
An easy win for the SNP here.
8. Gordon
2010 Result:
Conservative: 9111 (18.7%)
Labour: 9811 (20.1%)
Lib Dem: 17575 (36%)
SNP: 10827 (22.2%)
BNP: 699 (1.4%)
Green: 752 (1.5%)
MAJORITY: 6748 (13.8%)
Sitting MP: Sir Malcolm Bruce (LibDem)
Prediction: SNP gain
Sir Malcolm Bruce is standing down. He has benefited from a split opposition in the past but the SNP have been making headway here, and few observers think the LibDems will hold off their challenge. The LibDems’ best strategy is to court tactical votes from Labour and the Tories to keep out Alex Salmond, assuming he does decide to stand here. According to THIS article, that’s just what they are trying.
9. Aberdeen North
2010 Result:
Conservative: 4666 (12.4%)
Labour: 16746 (44.4%)
Lib Dem: 7001 (18.6%)
SNP: 8385 (22.2%)
BNP: 635 (1.7%)
Others: 268 (0.7%)
MAJORITY: 8361 (22.2%)
Sitting MP: Frank Doran (Lab)
Prediction: SNP gain
A big majority, but the popular Frank Doran is standing down and the SNP have high hopes of taking this seat. They have never done especially well in Aberdeen, but that could change in May. One to watch.
10. Aberdeen South
2010 Result:
Conservative: 8914 (20.7%)
Labour: 15722 (36.5%)
Lib Dem: 12216 (28.4%)
SNP: 5102 (11.9%)
BNP: 529 (1.2%)
Green: 413 (1%)
Others: 138 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 3506 (8.1%)
Sitting MP: Dame Anne Begg (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
This used to be a Tory seat and they still retain a substantial vote. However, with the probably collapse of the LibDem vote, Labour’s majority should increase here.
11. West Aberdeenshire & Kincardine
2010 Result:
Conservative: 13678 (30.3%)
Labour: 6159 (13.6%)
Lib Dem: 17362 (38.4%)
SNP: 7086 (15.7%)
BNP: 513 (1.1%)
UKIP: 397 (0.9%)
MAJORITY: 3684 (8.2%)
Sitting MP: Sir Robert Smith (LibDem)
Prediction: Conservative gain
This may well turn into a three way marginal, with the Tories and the SNP trying to oust Sir Robert Smith. The LibDem majority was halved last time, and it’s very possible to see how rises in the Labour and SNP votes could see this seat return to the Conservative fold. But if the SNP do as the current polls suggest they will, don’t rule out an astonishing SNP gain here.
12. Angus
2010 Result:
Conservative: 11738 (30.9%)
Labour: 6535 (17.2%)
Lib Dem: 4090 (10.8%)
SNP: 15020 (39.6%)
UKIP: 577 (1.5%)
MAJORITY: 3282 (8.6%)
Sitting MP: Michael Weir (SNP)
Prediction: SNP hold
I can’t see anything other than an SNP hold here, despite the Tories being a strong second.
No comments:
Post a Comment