IAIN DALES General Election Predictions: London Central

Originally posted here >>> http://www.iaindale.com/

Seats: 6
Current Political Makeup: Con 2, Lab 4
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Con 2, Lab 4
Cities of London & Westminster
2010 Result:
Conservative: 19264 (52.2%)
Labour: 8188 (22.2%)
Lib Dem: 7574 (20.5%)
Green: 778 (2.1%)
UKIP: 664 (1.8%)
English Dem: 191 (0.5%)
Independent: 98 (0.3%)
Others: 174 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 11076 (30%)
Sitting MP: Mark Field (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold
Safe seat.
Holborn & St Pancras
2010 Result:
Conservative: 11134 (20.4%)
Labour: 25198 (46.1%)
Lib Dem: 15256 (27.9%)
BNP: 779 (1.4%)
Green: 1480 (2.7%)
UKIP: 587 (1.1%)
English Dem: 75 (0.1%)
Independent: 96 (0.2%)
Others: 44 (0.1%)
MAJORITY: 9942 (18.2%)
Sitting MP: Frank Dobson (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
A nice majority for Sir Keir Starmer to inherit.
Islington South & Finsbury
2010 Result:
Conservative: 8449 (19.4%)
Labour: 18407 (42.3%)
Lib Dem: 14838 (34.1%)
Green: 710 (1.6%)
UKIP: 701 (1.6%)
English Dem: 301 (0.7%)
Others: 149 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 3569 (8.2%)
Sitting MP: Emily Thornbury (Lab)
Prediction: Increased Labour majority
Difficult to see anything other than a doubling of Emily Thornberry’s majority here.
Kensington
2010 Result:
Conservative: 17595 (50.1%)
Labour: 8979 (25.5%)
Lib Dem: 6872 (19.6%)
Green: 753 (2.1%)
UKIP: 754 (2.1%)
Others: 197 (0.6%)
MAJORITY: 8616 (24.5%)
Sitting MP: Sir Malcolm Rifkind (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold
Safe seat.
Poplar & Limehouse
2010 Result:
Conservative: 12649 (27.1%)
Labour: 18679 (40%)
Lib Dem: 5209 (11.2%)
Green: 449 (1%)
UKIP: 565 (1.2%)
Respect: 8160 (17.5%)
English Dem: 470 (1%)
Independent: 293 (0.6%)
Others: 226 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 6030 (12.9%)
Sitting MP: Jim Fitzpatrick (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Safe seat, unless Lutfar Rahman puts up a Tower Hamlets First candidate, in which case Tory ears may prick up.
Westminster North
2010 Result:
Conservative: 15251 (38.5%)
Labour: 17377 (43.9%)
Lib Dem: 5513 (13.9%)
BNP: 334 (0.8%)
Green: 478 (1.2%)
UKIP: 315 (0.8%)
English Dem: 99 (0.3%)
Christian: 98 (0.2%)
Independent: 101 (0.3%)
Others: 32 (0.1%)
MAJORITY: 2126 (5.4%)
Sitting MP: Karen Buck (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
No problems for Karen Buck here. Her majority should go up by a couple of thousand at the very least.