Seats: 11
Current Political Makeup: Con 6, Lab 4, LibDem 1
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Con 6, Lab 5
1. Aldridge & Brownhills
2010 Result:
Conservative: 22913 (59.3%)
Labour: 7647 (19.8%)
Lib Dem: 6833 (17.7%)
Green: 847 (2.2%)
Christian: 394 (1%)
MAJORITY: 15266 (39.5%)
Sitting MP: Sir Richard Shepherd (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold
11. Coventry North East
2010 Result:
Conservative: 9609 (22.1%)
Labour: 21384 (49.3%)
Lib Dem: 7210 (16.6%)
BNP: 1863 (4.3%)
UKIP: 1291 (3%)
Others: 2026 (4.7%)
MAJORITY: 11775 (27.1%)
Sitting MP: Bob Ainsworth (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
12. Coventry North West
2010 Result:
Conservative: 13648 (29.3%)
Labour: 19936 (42.8%)
Lib Dem: 8344 (17.9%)
BNP: 1666 (3.6%)
Green: 497 (1.1%)
UKIP: 1295 (2.8%)
Independent: 640 (1.4%)
Others: 534 (1.1%)
MAJORITY: 6288 (13.5%)
Sitting MP: Geoffrey Robinson (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
13. Coventry South
2010 Result:
Conservative: 15352 (33.4%)
Labour: 19197 (41.8%)
Lib Dem: 8278 (18%)
Green: 639 (1.4%)
UKIP: 1767 (3.8%)
Others: 691 (1.5%)
MAJORITY: 3845 (8.4%)
Sitting MP: Jim Cunningham (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
The most marginal of the Coventry seats but it’s difficult to imagine anything other than a Labour win here.
14. Dudley North
2010 Result:
Conservative: 14274 (37%)
Labour: 14923 (38.7%)
Lib Dem: 4066 (10.5%)
BNP: 1899 (4.9%)
UKIP: 3267 (8.5%)
Others: 173 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 649 (1.7%)
Sitting MP: Ian Austin (Lab)
Prediction: Increased Labour majority
Ian Austin managed to hold off a strong Tory challenge in 2010 and should do so again if he can benefit from the decline in LibDem voters. However, polls show UKIP doing well here and they have opened a large campaigns office.
15. Dudley South
2010 Result:
Conservative: 16450 (43.1%)
Labour: 12594 (33%)
Lib Dem: 5989 (15.7%)
UKIP: 3132 (8.2%)
MAJORITY: 3856 (10.1%)
Sitting MP: Chris Kelly (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold
Chris Kelly is retiring after only one term and is succeeded by Mike Wood. This has increased the chances of Labour taking the seat. The swing in 2010 was higher than the national average which could mean one of two things – one, that there are demogrphic moves afoot, or that this seat is more volatile than others.
16. Halesowen & Rowley Regis
2010 Result:
Conservative: 18115 (41.2%)
Labour: 16092 (36.6%)
Lib Dem: 6515 (14.8%)
UKIP: 2824 (6.4%)
Independent: 433 (1%)
MAJORITY: 2023 (4.6%)
Sitting MP: James Morris (Con)
Prediction: Labour gain
Labour need to win this seat to become the largest party in the House of Commons.
17. Meriden
2010 Result:
Conservative: 26956 (51.7%)
Labour: 10703 (20.5%)
Lib Dem: 9278 (17.8%)
BNP: 2511 (4.8%)
Green: 678 (1.3%)
UKIP: 1378 (2.6%)
Others: 658 (1.3%)
MAJORITY: 16253 (31.2%)
Sitting MP: Caroline Spelman (Con)
Conservative hold
Safe seat.
18. Solihull
2010 Result:
Conservative: 23460 (42.6%)
Labour: 4891 (8.9%)
Lib Dem: 23635 (42.9%)
BNP: 1624 (2.9%)
UKIP: 1200 (2.2%)
Others: 319 (0.6%)
MAJORITY: 175 (0.3%)
Sitting MP: Lorely Burt (LibDem)
Prediction: Conservative gain
Lorely Burt did very well to hang onto her seat last time (she won it in 2005 with a majority of 279) and confounded all expectations. The Labour vote has gone down from 25% to 8% and if Labour takes just a thousand votes from the LibDem the Conservatives will win a seat many think they should never have lost.
19. Stourbridge
2010 Result:
Conservative: 20153 (42.7%)
Labour: 14989 (31.7%)
Lib Dem: 7733 (16.4%)
BNP: 1696 (3.6%)
Green: 394 (0.8%)
UKIP: 2103 (4.5%)
Independent: 166 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 5164 (10.9%)
Sitting MP: Margot James (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold
A fantastic result for Margot James last time. Surely she will pull through again.
20. Sutton Coldfield
2010 Result:
Conservative: 27303 (54%)
Labour: 10298 (20.4%)
Lib Dem: 9117 (18%)
BNP: 1749 (3.5%)
Green: 535 (1.1%)
UKIP: 1587 (3.1%)
MAJORITY: 17005 (33.6%)
Sitting MP: Andrew Mitchell (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold
Safe seat.
Seats: 8
Current Political Makeup: Lab 7, Con 1
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Lab 8
21. Walsall North
2010 Result:
Conservative: 12395 (34.3%)
Labour: 13385 (37%)
Lib Dem: 4754 (13.1%)
BNP: 2930 (8.1%)
UKIP: 1737 (4.8%)
Christian: 144 (0.4%)
Others: 842 (2.3%)
MAJORITY: 990 (2.7%)
Sitting MP: David Winnick (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
I do wonder if this is one of those seats where UKIP may eat into the Labour vote more than the Tory vote. If they do, David Winnick could be in trouble.
22. Walsall South
2010 Result:
Conservative: 14456 (35.4%)
Labour: 16211 (39.7%)
Lib Dem: 5880 (14.4%)
UKIP: 3449 (8.4%)
Christian: 482 (1.2%)
Others: 404 (1%)
MAJORITY: 1755 (4.3%)
Sitting MP: Valerie Vaz (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Difficult to imagine this seat going Tory.
23. Warley
2010 Result:
Conservative: 9484 (24.8%)
Labour: 20240 (52.9%)
Lib Dem: 5929 (15.5%)
UKIP: 2617 (6.8%)
MAJORITY: 10756 (28.1%
Sitting MP: John Spellar (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Safe seat.
24. West Bromwich East
2010 Result:
Conservative: 10961 (28.9%)
Labour: 17657 (46.5%)
Lib Dem: 4993 (13.2%)
BNP: 2205 (5.8%)
UKIP: 984 (2.6%)
English Dem: 1150 (3%)
MAJORITY: 6696 (17.6%)
Sitting MP: Tom Watson (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Safe seat.
25. West Bromwich West
2010 Result:
Conservative: 10612 (29.3%)
Labour: 16263 (45%)
Lib Dem: 4336 (12%)
BNP: 3394 (9.4%)
UKIP: 1566 (4.3%)
MAJORITY: 5651 (15.6%)
Sitting MP: Adrian Bailey (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Safe-ish seat.
26. Wolverhampton North East
2010 Result:
Conservative: 11964 (34.3%)
Labour: 14448 (41.4%)
Lib Dem: 4711 (13.5%)
BNP: 2296 (6.6%)
UKIP: 1138 (3.3%)
Others: 337 (1%)
MAJORITY: 2484 (7.1%)
Sitting MP: Emma Reynolds (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Used to be a Tory seat and if there’s a Tory majority it could be again. But only then.
27. Wolverhampton South East
2010 Result:
Conservative: 9912 (28.6%)
Labour: 16505 (47.6%)
Lib Dem: 5277 (15.2%)
UKIP: 2675 (7.7%)
Independent: 338 (1%)
MAJORITY: 6593 (19%)
Sitting MP: Pat McFadden (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Safe seat
28. Wolverhampton South West
2010 Result:
Conservative: 16344 (40.7%)
Labour: 15653 (39%)
Lib Dem: 6430 (16%)
UKIP: 1487 (3.7%)
Others: 246 (0.6%)
MAJORITY: 691 (1.7%)
Sitting MP: Paul Uppal (Con)
Prediction: Labour gain
The former Labour MP for the area Rob Marris is standing again. He ought to be a dead cert retread.
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