Liberal Democrat target seats from the Conservatives #GE2017

collated by and it is a great account to follow @220_d_92_20

What does "double incumbency" mean?

There is a noticeable 'incumbency effect' whereby a sitting MP gets additional votes (from having supported local non-partisan campaigns, helped people in surgery cases, and just been known in the area). So if the incumbent MP changes, then the previous MP loses their incumbency bonus while the incoming one gains it - hence the 'double incumbency'. It means seats that changed hands tend to show a relative move towards the party which gained them and are resistant to changing back at the next election.

Conservative seats vulnerable to Liberal Democrat

Constituency	Majority over Liberal Democrat	Location	Conservative candidate	Note
Eastbourne	1.4	South East	Caroline Ansell	Double incumbency
Lewes	2.1	South East	Maria Caulfield	Double incumbency
Thornbury and Yate	3.1	South West	Luke Hall	Double incumbency
Twickenham	3.3	London	Tania Mathias	Double incumbency
Kingston and Surbiton	4.8	London	James Berry	Double incumbency
St Ives	5.1	South West	Derek Thomas	Double incumbency
Torbay	6.8	South West	Kevin Foster	Double incumbency
Sutton and Cheam	7.9	London	Paul Scully	Double incumbency
Bath	8.2	South West	Ben Howlett	Double incumbency
Yeovil	9.3	South West	Marcus Fysch	Double incumbency
Colchester	11.5	East of England	Will Quince	Double incumbency
Cheltenham	12.1	South West	Alex Chalk	Double incumbency
Berwick-upon-Tweed	12.2	North East	Anne-Marie Trevelyan	Double incumbency
Cheadle	12.3	North West	Mary Robinson	Double incumbency
Portsmouth South	12.5	South East	Flick Drummond	Double incumbency
Brecon and Radnorshire	12.7	Wales	Chris Davies	Double incumbency
North Devon	13.3	South West	Peter Heaton-Jones	Double incumbency
Wells	13.3	South West	James Heappey	Double incumbency
North Cornwall	13.7	South West	Scott Mann	Double incumbency
Hazel Grove	15.2	North West	William Wragg	Double incumbency
Montgomeryshire	15.8	Wales	Glyn Davies
St Austell and Newquay	16.2	South West	Steve Double	Double incumbency
Eastleigh	16.5	South East	Mims Davies	Double incumbency
Oxford West and Abingdon	16.8	South East	Nicola Blackwood
Bosworth	20.5	East Midlands	David Tredinnick
Chippenham	21.0	South West	Michelle Donelan	Double incumbency
Maidstone and The Weald	21.4	South East	Helen Grant
Mid Dorset and North Poole	22.6	South West	Michael Tomlinson	Double incumbency
Newton Abbot	23.4	South West	Anne-Marie Morris
Solihull	23.6	West Midlands	Julian Knight	Double incumbency
Watford	25.4	East of England	Richard Harrington	From Third
Taunton Deane	26.8	South West	Rebecca Pow	Double incumbency
Truro and Falmouth	27.5	South West	Sarah Newton
Camborne and Redruth	27.8	South West	George Eustice	From Fourth
Derby North	28.1	East Midlands	Amanda Solloway	From Third
St Albans	28.1	East of England	Anne Main	From Third
South East Cambridgeshire	28.3	East of England	Lucy Frazer
West Dorset	28.6	South West	Oliver Letwin
Winchester	30.6	South East	Steve Brine
Harrogate and Knaresborough	30.7	Yorkshire and the Humber	Andrew Jones
Canterbury	31.2	South East	Julian Brazier	From Fourth
Thurrock	32.5	East of England	Jackie Doyle-Price	From Fourth
South West Norfolk	33.2	East of England	Elizabeth Truss	From Fourth
Isle of Wight	33.2	South East	Andrew Turner	From Fourth
Gower	33.5	Wales	Byron Davies	From Fifth; gained from Labour
Bridgwater and West Somerset	33.5	South West	Ian Liddell-Grainger
Plymouth Sutton and Devonport	33.6	South West	Oliver Colvile	From Fifth
Somerton and Frome	33.6	South West	David Warburton	Double incumbency
South East Cornwall	33.7	South West	Sheryl Murray
Plymouth Moor View	34.6	South West	Johnny Mercer	From Fourth; gained from Labour
South Cambridgeshire	35.9	East of England	Heidi Allen	From Third
Peterborough	35.9	East of England	Stewart Jackson	From Fourth
Morley and Outwood	36.0	Yorkshire and the Humber	Andrea Jenkyns	From Fourth; gained from Labour