What does "double incumbency" mean?
There is a noticeable 'incumbency effect' whereby a sitting MP gets additional votes (from having supported local non-partisan campaigns, helped people in surgery cases, and just been known in the area). So if the incumbent MP changes, then the previous MP loses their incumbency bonus while the incoming one gains it - hence the 'double incumbency'. It means seats that changed hands tend to show a relative move towards the party which gained them and are resistant to changing back at the next election.
Constituency | Swing needed | Location | Conservative candidate | Note |
Gower | 0.0 | Wales | Byron Davies | Double incumbency |
Derby North | 0.0 | East Midlands | Amanda Solloway | Double incumbency |
Croydon Central | 0.2 | London | Gavin Barwell | |
Vale of Clwyd | 0.3 | Wales | James Davies | Double incumbency |
Bury North | 0.4 | North West | David Nuttall | |
Morley and Outwood | 0.4 | Yorkshire and the Humber | Andrea Jenkyns | Double incumbency |
Thurrock | 0.5 | East of England | Jackie Doyle-Price | |
Plymouth Sutton and Devonport | 0.5 | South West | Oliver Colvile | |
Brighton Kemptown | 0.8 | South East | Simon Kirby | |
Bolton West | 0.8 | North West | Chris Green | Double incumbency |
Weaver Vale | 0.9 | North West | Graham Evans | |
Telford | 0.9 | West Midlands | Lucy Allan | Double incumbency |
Bedford | 1.2 | East of England | Richard Fuller | |
Plymouth Moor View | 1.2 | South West | Johnny Mercer | Double incumbency |
Lincoln | 1.5 | East Midlands | Karl McCartney | |
Peterborough | 2.0 | East of England | Stewart Jackson | |
Cardiff North | 2.1 | Wales | Craig Williams | |
Corby | 2.1 | East Midlands | Tom Pursglove | Double incumbency |
Waveney | 2.3 | East of England | Peter Aldous | |
Warrington South | 2.3 | North West | David Mowat | |
Southampton Itchen | 2.6 | South East | Royston Smith | Double incumbency |
Keighley | 3.1 | Yorkshire and the Humber | Kris Hopkins | |
North Warwickshire | 3.1 | West Midlands | Craig Tracey | |
Carlisle | 3.3 | North West | John Stevenson | |
Halesowen and Rowley Regis | 3.5 | West Midlands | James Morris | |
Crewe and Nantwich | 3.6 | North West | Edward Timpson | |
Erewash | 3.7 | East Midlands | Maggie Throup | |
Hendon | 3.8 | London | Dr Matthew Offord | |
Ipswich | 3.8 | East of England | Ben Gummer | |
Stroud | 4.0 | South West | Neil Carmichael | |
Broxtowe | 4.0 | East Midlands | Anna Soubry | |
Northampton North | 4.1 | East Midlands | Michael Ellis | |
Calder Valley | 4.1 | Yorkshire and the Humber | Craig Whittaker | |
Blackpool North and Cleveleys | 4.2 | North West | Paul Maynard | |
Pudsey | 4.4 | Yorkshire and the Humber | Stuart Andrew | |
Sherwood | 4.6 | East Midlands | Mark Spencer | |
Amber Valley | 4.6 | East Midlands | Nigel Mills | |
Hastings and Rye | 4.7 | South East | Amber Rudd | |
Colne Valley | 4.7 | Yorkshire and the Humber | Jason McCartney | |
Bristol North West | 4.8 | South West | Charlotte Leslie | |
High Peak | 4.8 | East Midlands | Andrew Bingham | |
Harrow East | 4.9 | London | Bob Blackman | |
Stockton South | 4.9 | North East | James Wharton | |
Northampton South | 4.9 | East Midlands | David Mackintosh | |
Norwich North | 5.1 | East of England | Chloë Smith | |
Stevenage | 5.2 | East of England | Stephen McPartland | |
Enfield Southgate | 5.2 | London | David Burrowes | |
Cannock Chase | 5.2 | West Midlands | Amanda Milling | |
Morecambe and Lunesdale | 5.3 | North West | David Morris | |
Nuneaton | 5.3 | West Midlands | Marcus Jones | |
Finchley and Golders Green | 5.6 | London | Mike Freer | |
Dudley South | 5.6 | West Midlands | Mike Wood | |
South Ribble | 5.7 | North West | Seema Kennedy | |
Worcester | 5.7 | West Midlands | Robin Walker | |
Rossendale and Darwen | 5.8 | North West | Jake Berry | |
South Swindon | 5.9 | South West | Robert Buckland | |
Preseli Pembrokeshire | 6.1 | Wales | Stephen Crabb | |
Pendle | 6.1 | North West | Andrew Stephenson | |
Dover | 6.3 | South East | Charlie Elphicke | |
Reading East | 6.5 | South East | Rob Wilson | |
Scarborough and Whitby | 6.5 | Yorkshire and the Humber | Robert Goodwill | |
Warwick and Leamington | 6.5 | West Midlands | Chris White | |
Aberconwy | 6.6 | Wales | Guto Bebb | |
Crawley | 6.7 | South East | Henry Smith | |
Vale of Glamorgan | 6.7 | Wales | Alun Cairns | |
Reading West | 6.9 | South East | Alok Sharma | |
Gloucester | 6.9 | South West | Richard Graham | |
Great Yarmouth | 6.9 | East of England | Brandon Lewis | |
Chipping Barnet | 7.2 | London | Theresa Villiers | |
South Thanet | 7.2 | South East | Craig Mackinlay | From Third |
Stourbridge | 7.3 | West Midlands | Margot James | |
Elmet and Rothwell | 7.3 | Yorkshire and the Humber | Alec Shelbrooke | |
Milton Keynes South | 7.4 | South East | Iain Stewart | |
Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South | 7.5 | Wales | Simon Hart | |
Camborne and Redruth | 7.6 | South West | George Eustice | |
Portsmouth South | 7.6 | South East | Flick Drummond | From Third |
Battersea | 7.8 | London | Jane Ellison | |
Redditch | 8.0 | West Midlands | Karen Lumley | |
Gravesham | 8.4 | South East | Adam Holloway | |
Milton Keynes North | 8.5 | South East | Mark Lancaster | |
Watford | 8.7 | East of England | Richard Harrington | |
Cleethorpes | 8.8 | Yorkshire and the Humber | Martin Vickers | |
Loughborough | 8.8 | East Midlands | Nicky Morgan | |
Shrewsbury and Atcham | 8.8 | West Midlands | Daniel Kawczynski | |
Clwyd West | 8.9 | Wales | David Jones | |
South Basildon and East Thurrock | 9.1 | East of England | Stephen Metcalfe | From Third |
Canterbury | 9.2 | South East | Julian Brazier | |
Kingswood | 9.4 | South West | Chris Skidmore | |
Stafford | 9.4 | West Midlands | Jeremy Lefroy | |
Harlow | 9.4 | East of England | Robert Halfon | |
Shipley | 9.5 | Yorkshire and the Humber | Philip Davies | |
Chingford and Woodford Green | 9.6 | London | Iain Duncan Smith | |
Filton and Bradley Stoke | 9.8 | South West | Jack LoPresti | |
Basingstoke | 10.4 | South East | Maria Miller | |
Bexleyheath and Crayford | 10.5 | London | David Evennett | |
Rugby | 10.6 | West Midlands | Mark Pawsey | |
Kensington | 10.7 | London | Victoria Borwick | |
Rochford and Southend East | 10.9 | East of England | James Duddridge | |
North West Leicestershire | 11.0 | East Midlands | Andrew Bridgen | |
Forest of Dean | 11.1 | South West | Mark Harper | |
Gillingham and Rainham | 11.2 | South East | Rehman Chishti | |
North Swindon | 11.3 | South West | Justin Tomlinson | |
South Derbyshire | 11.3 | East Midlands | Heather Wheeler | |
Colchester | 11.4 | East of England | Will Quince | From Third |
Burton | 11.4 | West Midlands | Andrew Griffiths | |
Monmouth | 11.6 | Wales | David Davies | |
Beverley and Holderness | 11.6 | Yorkshire and the Humber | Graham Stuart | |
Portsmouth North | 11.6 | South East | Penny Mordaunt | |
St Albans | 11.7 | East of England | Anne Main | |
Dartford | 11.8 | South East | Gareth Johnson | |
The Wrekin | 11.8 | West Midlands | Mark Pritchard | |
Putney | 11.9 | London | Justine Greening | |
Hazel Grove | 11.9 | North West | William Wragg | From Third |
Staffordshire Moorlands | 11.9 | West Midlands | Karen Bradley | |
Uxbridge and South Ruislip | 12.0 | London | Boris Johnson | |
Tamworth | 12.0 | West Midlands | Christopher Pincher | |
Welwyn Hatfield | 12.1 | East of England | Grant Shapps | |
Rochester and Strood | 12.1 | South East | Kelly Tolhurst | From Third |
York Outer | 12.2 | Yorkshire and the Humber | Julian Sturdy | |
South Dorset | 12.3 | South West | Richard Drax | |
Kingston and Surbiton | 12.4 | London | James Berry | From Third |
Bath | 12.5 | South West | Ben Howlett | From Third |
North East Somerset | 12.5 | South West | Jacob Rees-Mogg | |
Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale | 12.5 | Scotland | David Mundell | From Third |
Rushcliffe | 12.5 | East Midlands | Kenneth Clarke | |
Bosworth | 12.7 | East Midlands | David Tredinnick | From Third |
Selby and Ainsty | 12.8 | Yorkshire and the Humber | Nigel Adams | |
Brigg and Goole | 12.9 | Yorkshire and the Humber | Andrew Percy | |
Wyre Forest | 13.0 | West Midlands | Mark Garnier | |
Ribble Valley | 13.0 | North West | Nigel Evans | |
Wimbledon | 13.0 | London | Stephen Hammond | |
Berwick-upon-Tweed | 13.1 | North East | Anne-Marie Trevelyan | From Third |
Altrincham and Sale West | 13.2 | North West | Graham Brady | |
Brecon and Radnorshire | 13.2 | Wales | Chris Davies | |
Chatham and Aylesford | 13.3 | South East | Tracey Crouch | |
Kettering | 13.3 | East Midlands | Philip Hollobone | |
Mid Derbyshire | 13.4 | East Midlands | Pauline Latham | |
Cities of London and Westminster | 13.4 | London | Mark Field | |
Cheadle | 13.5 | North West | Mary Robinson | From Third |
Eddisbury | 13.7 | North West | Antoinette Sandbach | |
Boston and Skegness | 13.8 | East Midlands | Matt Warman | From Third |
Hexham | 13.9 | North East | Guy Opperman | |
Isle of Wight | 13.9 | South East | Andrew Turner | From Third |
Lewes | 14.1 | South East | Maria Caulfield | From Fourth |
Bridgwater and West Somerset | 14.2 | South West | Ian Liddell-Grainger | From Third |
Wyre and Preston North | 14.2 | North West | Ben Wallace | |
Hornchurch and Upminster | 14.4 | London | From Third | |
Wycombe | 14.4 | South East | Steven Baker | |
St Ives | 14.5 | South West | Derek Thomas | From Fourth |
Basildon and Billericay | 14.5 | East of England | John Baron | |
Hemel Hempstead | 14.5 | East of England | Michael Penning | |
Truro and Falmouth | 14.6 | South West | Sarah Newton | From Third |
Eastleigh | 14.7 | South East | Mims Davies | From Fourth |
North West Norfolk | 14.7 | East of England | Henry Bellingham | |
Derbyshire Dales | 14.8 | East Midlands | Patrick McLoughlin | |
Aldridge-Brownhills | 14.8 | West Midlands | Wendy Morton | |
Weston-Super-Mare | 14.9 | South West | John Penrose | |
Croydon South | 14.9 | London | Chris Philp | |
Twickenham | 14.9 | London | Tania Mathias | From Third |
Macclesfield | 14.9 | North West | David Rutley | |
East Yorkshire | 14.9 | Yorkshire and the Humber | Sir Greg Knight | |
Sittingbourne and Sheppey | 14.9 | South East | Gordon Henderson | From Third |
East Worthing and Shoreham | 15.0 | South East | Tim Loughton | From Third |
St Austell and Newquay | 15.0 | South West | Steve Double | From Fourth |
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