What does "double incumbency" mean?
There is a noticeable 'incumbency effect' whereby a sitting MP gets additional votes (from having supported local non-partisan campaigns, helped people in surgery cases, and just been known in the area). So if the incumbent MP changes, then the previous MP loses their incumbency bonus while the incoming one gains it - hence the 'double incumbency'. It means seats that changed hands tend to show a relative move towards the party which gained them and are resistant to changing back at the next election.
| Constituency | Swing needed | Location | Labour candidate | Note |
| City of Chester | 0.1 | North West | Chris Matheson | Double incumbency |
| Ealing Central and Acton | 0.3 | London | Rupa Huq | Double incumbency |
| Brentford and Isleworth | 0.4 | London | Ruth Cadbury | Double incumbency |
| Halifax | 0.5 | Yorkshire and the Humber | Holly Lynch | |
| Wirral West | 0.5 | North West | Margaret Greenwood | Double incumbency |
| Ilford North | 0.6 | London | Wes Streeting | Double incumbency |
| Newcastle-under-Lyme | 0.8 | West Midlands | Paul Farrelly | |
| Barrow and Furness | 0.9 | North West | John Woodcock | |
| Wolverhampton South West | 1.0 | West Midlands | ||
| Hampstead and Kilburn | 1.1 | London | Tulip Siddiq | |
| Enfield North | 1.2 | London | Joan Ryan | Double incumbency |
| Hove | 1.2 | South East | Peter Kyle | Double incumbency |
| Dewsbury | 1.4 | Yorkshire and the Humber | Paula Sherriff | Double incumbency |
| Lancaster and Fleetwood | 1.5 | North West | Cat Smith | Double incumbency |
| North East Derbyshire | 2.0 | East Midlands | Natascha Engel | |
| Harrow West | 2.4 | London | Gareth Thomas | |
| Bridgend | 2.4 | Wales | Madeleine Moon | |
| Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland | 2.5 | North East | ||
| Westminster North | 2.5 | London | Karen Buck | |
| Walsall North | 2.6 | West Midlands | David Winnick | |
| Tooting | 2.7 | London | Rosena Allin-Khan | |
| Wrexham | 2.8 | Wales | Ian Lucas | |
| Birmingham Northfield | 3.0 | West Midlands | Richard Burden | |
| Wakefield | 3.0 | Yorkshire and the Humber | Mary Creagh | |
| Gedling | 3.1 | East Midlands | Vernon Coaker | |
| Eltham | 3.1 | London | Clive Efford | |
| Copeland | 3.2 | North West | ||
| Stoke-on-Trent South | 3.2 | West Midlands | Robert Flello | |
| Birmingham Edgbaston | 3.3 | West Midlands | ||
| Clwyd South | 3.4 | Wales | Susan Elan Jones | |
| Coventry South | 3.6 | West Midlands | Jim Cunningham | |
| Darlington | 3.8 | North East | Jenny Chapman | |
| Delyn | 3.9 | Wales | David Hanson | |
| Blackpool South | 4.0 | North West | Gordon Marsden | |
| Alyn and Deeside | 4.0 | Wales | Mark Tami | |
| Scunthorpe | 4.2 | Yorkshire and the Humber | Nic Dakin | |
| Bristol East | 4.3 | South West | Kerry McCarthy | |
| Newport West | 4.3 | Wales | Paul Flynn | |
| Southampton Test | 4.4 | South East | Alan Whitehead | |
| Chorley | 4.4 | North West | Lindsay Hoyle | |
| Bishop Auckland | 4.5 | North East | Helen Goodman | |
| Ynys Môn | 5.0 | Wales | Albert Owen | From third |
| Coventry North West | 5.0 | West Midlands | Geoffrey Robinson | |
| Bolton North East | 5.1 | North West | David Crausby | |
| Hyndburn | 5.1 | North West | Graham Jones | |
| Wirral South | 5.5 | North West | Alison McGovern | |
| Dudley North | 5.5 | West Midlands | Ian Austin | |
| Mansfield | 5.6 | East Midlands | Alan Meale | |
| Bury South | 5.9 | North West | Ivan Lewis | |
| Batley and Spen | 6.0 | Yorkshire and the Humber | Tracy Brabin | |
| Workington | 6.1 | North West | Sue Hayman | |
| Stoke-on-Trent North | 6.3 | West Midlands | Ruth Smeeth | |
| Exeter | 6.6 | South West | Ben Bradshaw | |
| Ellesmere Port and Neston | 6.7 | North West | Justin Madders | |
| Great Grimsby | 6.7 | Yorkshire and the Humber | Melanie Onn | |
| Oldham East and Saddleworth | 6.7 | North West | Debbie Abraham | |
| Luton South | 6.8 | East of England | Gavin Shuker | |
| Hammersmith | 6.8 | London | Andy Slaughter | |
| Newport East | 6.9 | Wales | Jessica Morden | |
| Bristol South | 7.0 | South West | Karin Smyth | |
| York Central | 7.0 | Yorkshire and the Humber | Rachael Maskell | |
| Worsley and Eccles South | 7.1 | North West | Barbara Keeley | |
| Penistone and Stocksbridge | 7.2 | Yorkshire and the Humber | Angela Smith | |
| Walsall South | 7.2 | West Midlands | Valerie Vaz | |
| Hartlepool | 7.4 | North East | From third | |
| Birmingham Erdington | 7.4 | West Midlands | Jack Dromey | |
| Leeds North East | 7.5 | Yorkshire and the Humber | Fabian Hamilton | |
| Slough | 7.6 | South East | ||
| Tynemouth | 7.7 | North East | Alan Campbell | |
| Cardiff West | 7.8 | Wales | Kevin Brennan | |
| Norwich South | 7.9 | East of England | Clive Lewis | |
| Nottingham South | 8.0 | East Midlands | Lilian Greenwood | |
| Cardiff South and Penarth | 8.0 | Wales | Stephen Doughty | |
| Wolverhampton North East | 8.1 | West Midlands | Emma Reynolds | |
| Stalybridge and Hyde | 8.1 | North West | Jonathan Reynolds | |
| Stoke-on-Trent Central | 8.4 | West Midlands | Gareth Snell | From third |
| West Lancashire | 8.4 | North West | Rosie Cooper | |
| Dagenham and Rainham | 8.6 | London | Jon Cruddas | From third |
| Bradford South | 8.6 | Yorkshire and the Humber | Judith Cummins | |
| Sedgefield | 8.8 | North East | Phil Wilson | |
| Bassetlaw | 9.0 | East Midlands | John Mann | |
| Huddersfield | 9.1 | Yorkshire and the Humber | Barry Sheerman | |
| Ashfield | 9.3 | East Midlands | Gloria de Piero | |
| Birmingham Selly Oak | 9.3 | West Midlands | Steve McCabe | |
| Warrington North | 9.8 | North West | Helen Jones | |
| Swansea West | 10.0 | Wales | Geraint Davies | |
| Rother Valley | 10.2 | Yorkshire and the Humber | Kevin Barron | From third |
| Cambridge | 10.2 | East of England | Daniel Zeichner | From third |
| Bristol West | 10.3 | South West | Thangam Debbonaire | From fourth |
| Brent North | 10.4 | London | Barry Gardiner | |
| Leicester West | 10.4 | East Midlands | Elizabeth Kendall | |
| Don Valley | 10.5 | Yorkshire and the Humber | Caroline Flint | |
| Stockton North | 10.6 | North East | Alex Cunningham | |
| Derby South | 10.8 | East Midlands | Margaret Beckett | |
| Luton North | 11.2 | East of England | Kelvin Hopkins | |
| Erith and Thamesmead | 11.2 | London | Teresa Pearce | |
| Newcastle upon Tyne North | 11.3 | North East | Catherine McKinnell | |
| Torfaen | 11.4 | Wales | Nick Thomas-Symonds | |
| Feltham and Heston | 11.6 | London | Seema Malhotra | |
| West Bromwich West | 11.7 | West Midlands | Adrian Bailey | From third |
| North West Durham | 11.7 | North East | ||
| Pontypridd | 11.9 | Wales | Owen Smith | |
| Heywood and Middleton | 12.0 | North West | Liz McInnes | From third |
| Burnley | 12.0 | North West | Julie Cooper | From fourth |
| Sefton Central | 12.1 | North West | Bill Esterson | |
| Wythenshawe and Sale East | 12.2 | North West | Michael Kane | |
| Blyth Valley | 12.3 | North East | Ronnie Campbell | From third |
| City of Durham | 12.5 | North East | Roberta Blackman-Woods | |
| Stretford and Urmston | 12.6 | North West | Kate Green | |
| West Bromwich East | 12.6 | West Midlands | Tom Watson | |
| Cardiff Central | 12.7 | Wales | Jo Stevens | From third |
| Stockport | 12.7 | North West | Ann Coffey | |
| Ealing North | 12.7 | London | Stephen Pound | |
| Greenwich and Woolwich | 12.8 | London | Matthew Pennycook | |
| Lewisham West and Penge | 13.2 | London | ||
| Sunderland Central | 13.4 | North East | Julie Elliott | |
| Bolsover | 13.4 | East Midlands | Dennis Skinner | |
| Vauxhall | 13.4 | London | Kate Hoey | |
| Llanelli | 13.5 | Wales | Nia Griffith | From fourth |
| Denton and Reddish | 13.6 | North West | Andrew Gwynne | |
| Ashton under Lyne | 13.8 | North West | Angela Rayner | |
| Redcar | 13.8 | North East | Anna Turley | From fourth |
| Birmingham Yardley | 13.8 | West Midlands | Jess Phillips | From fourth |
| Caerphilly | 13.9 | Wales | Wayne David | From third |
| Leeds West | 14.0 | Yorkshire and the Humber | Rachel Reeves | |
| Streatham | 14.0 | London | Chuka Umunna | |
| Wansbeck | 14.1 | North East | Ian Lavery | |
| Doncaster Central | 14.2 | Yorkshire and the Humber | Rosie Winterton | From third |
| Hemsworth | 14.2 | Yorkshire and the Humber | Jon Trickett | |
| Neath | 14.2 | Wales | Christina Rees | From fourth |
| Islington South and Finsbury | 14.4 | London | Emily Thornberry | |
| Blackburn | 14.5 | North West | Kate Hollern | |
| Coventry North East | 14.5 | West Midlands | Colleen Fletcher | |
| Salford and Eccles | 14.6 | North West | Rebecca Long-Bailey | |
| Rochdale | 14.8 | North West | Simon Danczuk | From third |
| Chesterfield | 14.9 | East Midlands | Toby Perkins |
Lindsay Hoyle has long been favourite to succeed John Bercow as Speaker even if he had to wait till 2020. However we have a General Election now and I expect him not to returned as MP for Chorley.
ReplyDeleteUKIP who are obviously going to lose Clacton their only seat from GE2015, may have a hope in Hartlepool if UKIP vote holds or declines less than Labour vote declines. This is a 3 way marginal Lab/Con/UKIP for GE2017.
ReplyDeleteUKIP without Farage are nothing to be honest, with Brexit already won, I can see it being difficult for the party to even put up the numbers of candidates they did last time. Hartlepool I presume has a strong branch, so will poll the highest even higher than Clacton I presume. But UKIP will disappear after this election.
ReplyDeleteIt is how bad will it be for Labour and how many seats the Lib Dems could get back themselves.
I think the only folks that will be swinging, is UKIP voters to the Conservatives and a few remainers and disgruntled Labour supporters going to the Lib Dems but after tution fees, I hear only I will never vote Libdem from where I live. I can actually see the greens gaining Bristol West and probably challenging in a few others and PC going to 4 or 5 in Wales with the SNPs only threat coming from the pro unionist Conservatives.