UK General Election 2015 result information

Yougov polling, what a difference a week makes....

https://yougov.co.uk/refer/HdvYK1txkm0PfdJX43_Iow/  <<< Follow the link if you would like to join the YOUGOV panel and have your opinions heard

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Yougov (27-28 Apr)

English voting intentions (Change since 20/21 Apr)

CON 46% (-6%)
LAB 32% (+6%)
LD 12% (-1%)
UKIP 7% (+1%)
GRN 2% (-1%)

— General Election🇬🇧 (@UKGenElect) April 30, 2017

Yougov (27-28 Apr)#GE2015 #UKIP voting intentions (Change since 20/21 Apr)

CON 53% (-14%)
UKIP 39% (+15%)
LAB 8% (+2%)
OTH 1% (-2%)

— General Election🇬🇧 (@UKGenElect) April 30, 2017

Yougov (27-28 Apr)

Female voting intentions (Change since 20/21 Apr)

CON 43% (-7%)
LAB 34% (+6%)
LD 11% (nc)
OTH 13% (+1%)

— General Election🇬🇧 (@UKGenElect) April 30, 2017

Yougov (27-28 Apr)

Male voting intentions (Change since 20/21 Apr)

CON 45% (-2%)
LAB 29% (+7%)
LD 11% (-2%)
OTH 14% (-5%)

— General Election🇬🇧 (@UKGenElect) April 30, 2017

Yougov (27-28 Apr)

% of voters retained from #GE2015 (Change since 20/21 Apr)

CON 85% (-4%)
LAB 74% (+11%)
LD 51% (-9%)
UKIP 39% (+15%)

— General Election🇬🇧 (@UKGenElect) April 30, 2017

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Yougov polling 27-28 April

Yougov Polling 20-21 April

Labour seats Potentially already Lost to the Conservatives thanks to UKIP votes

I know sometimes things can be over simplified but for this exercise I am using the amount of UKIP votes in a constituency and what percentage of them would be needed to wipe out a Labour majority over the Conservative candidate.

If Opinion polls are to believed, it is suggested that between 30 to 50 percent of UKIP voters are now saying they will vote Conservative.

Also explains May's strong message on Brexit as UKIP itself implodes.


Blue indicates under 50% of the UKIP vote needed to wipe the Labour majority so vulnerable to a Conservative gain

Black means over 50% so vulnerable but harder for the Conservatives to gain just with UKIP switching support

Red meaning safe from just UKIP switchers

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Constituency	Labour maj over Conservatives	Location	UKIP Votes GE2015	% of UKIP vote needed to take the seat
City of Chester	93	North West	4,148	2.26%
Ealing Central and Acton	274	London	1,926	14.22%
Brentford and Isleworth	465	London	3,203	14.51%
Halifax	428	Yorkshire and the Humber	5,621	7.61%
Wirral West	417	North West	2,772	15.04%
Ilford North	589	London	4,355	13.52%
Newcastle-under-Lyme	650	West Midlands	7,252	8.96%
Barrow and Furness	795	North West	5,070	15.68%
Wolverhampton South West	801	West Midlands	4,310	18.58%
Hampstead and Kilburn	1,138	London	1,532	74.28%
Enfield North	1,086	London	4,133	26.27%
Hove	1,236	South East	3,265	37.85%
Dewsbury	1,451	Yorkshire and the Humber	6,649	21.82%
Lancaster and Fleetwood	1,265	North West	4,060	31.15%
North East Derbyshire	1,883	East Midlands	7,631	24.67%
Harrow West	2,208	London	2,047	100% +
Bridgend	1,927	Wales	5,911	32.6%
Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland	2,268	North East	6,935	32.7%
Westminster North	1,977	London	1,489	100% +
Walsall North	1,937	West Midlands	8,122	23.84%
Wrexham	1,831	Wales	5,072	36.1%
Birmingham Northfield	2,509	West Midlands	7,106	35.3%
Wakefield	2,613	Yorkshire and the Humber	7,862	33.23%
Gedling	2,986	East Midlands	6,930	43.08%
Eltham	2,693	London	6,481	41.55%
Stoke-on-Trent South	2,539	West Midlands	8,298	30.59%
Birmingham Edgbaston	2,706	West Midlands	4,154	65.14%
Clwyd South	2,402	Wales	5,480	43.83%
Coventry South	3.188	West Midlands	5,709	55.8%
Darlington	3,158	North East	5,392	58.56%
Delyn	2,930	Wales	6,150	47.64%
Blackpool South	2,585	North West	5,613	46.05%
Alyn and Deeside	3,343	Wales	7.260	46.04%
Scunthorpe	3,134	Yorkshire and the Humber	6,329	49.51%
Bristol East	3,980	South West	7,152	55.64%
Newport West	3,510	Wales	6,134	57.22%
Southampton Test	3,810	South East	5,566	68.45%
Chorley	4,530	North West	6,995	64.76%
Bishop Auckland	3,508	North East	7,015	50.00%
Ynys Môn	229 maj over pc	Wales	Albert Owen	PC main threat
Coventry North West	4,509	West Midlands	7,101	63.49%
Bolton North East	4,377	North West	8,117	53.92%
Hyndburn	4,400	North West	9,154	48.06%
Wirral South	4,599	North West	3,737	100% +
Dudley North	4,181	West Midlands	9,113	45.87%
Mansfield	5,315	East Midlands	11,850	44.85%
Bury South	4,922	North West	6,299	78.13%
Workington	4,686	North West	7,538	62.16%
Stoke-on-Trent North	4,836	West Midlands	9,542	50.68%
Exeter	7,183	South West	5,075	100%+
Ellesmere Port and Neston	6,275	North West	5,594	100% +

Notional result for Bristol West using 2016 council results.

2016 (General Election 2015)

Greens 34.1% (26.8%)
Labour 33.9% (35.7%)
Lib Dems 16.6% (18.8%)
Conservatives 12.5% (15.2%)

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Must note that Cabot ward has now become 2 separate wards Central & Hotwells & Harbourside

	Con	Lab	LD	UKIP	Green	Ind	Lib	Residents	Others	TOTAL
Bristol* {new wards}
Ashley	227	2,574	1,239		2,504				411	6,955
Bishopston & Ashley Down	423	1,833	937		1,755					4,948
Central	360	1,051	364		842					2,617
Clifton	1,486	734	712		1,793					4,725
Clifton Down	775	991	673		1,255	273				3,967
Cotham	434	1,163	1,215		1,338					4,150
Easton	222	1,964	317		1,760	208			149	4,620
Hotwells & Harbourside	284	400	609		441	47			28	1,809
										8
Lawrence Hill	281	2,130	270		732				120	3,533
Redland	871	1,654	783		2,158					5,466
	Con	Lab	LD	UKIP	Green	Ind	Lib	Residents	Others	TOTAL
TOTALS, 2016	5,337	14,494	7,119		14,578	528			708	42,764
% 2016	12.5%	33.9%	16.6%		34.1%			2.9%

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Resource tool used.

@AndyJSajs Is a great account to follow I am surprised he has less than a 1,000 followers. Andy has been busy again with another google doc.


docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/13C07pTr6ccd62S2dkElV5DzC6uN5YKbF-z2ux4CA6vY/edit#gid=0