Thursday, 27 April 2017

Liberal Democrat target seats from the Conservatives #GE2017

collated by and it is a great account to follow @220_d_92_20

What does "double incumbency" mean?

There is a noticeable 'incumbency effect' whereby a sitting MP gets additional votes (from having supported local non-partisan campaigns, helped people in surgery cases, and just been known in the area). So if the incumbent MP changes, then the previous MP loses their incumbency bonus while the incoming one gains it - hence the 'double incumbency'. It means seats that changed hands tend to show a relative move towards the party which gained them and are resistant to changing back at the next election.

Conservative seats vulnerable to Liberal Democrat

ConstituencyMajority over Liberal DemocratLocationConservative candidateNote
Eastbourne1.4South EastCaroline AnsellDouble incumbency
Lewes2.1South EastMaria CaulfieldDouble incumbency
Thornbury and Yate3.1South WestLuke HallDouble incumbency
Twickenham3.3LondonTania MathiasDouble incumbency
Kingston and Surbiton4.8LondonJames BerryDouble incumbency
St Ives5.1South WestDerek ThomasDouble incumbency
Torbay6.8South WestKevin FosterDouble incumbency
Sutton and Cheam7.9LondonPaul ScullyDouble incumbency
Bath8.2South WestBen HowlettDouble incumbency
Yeovil9.3South WestMarcus FyschDouble incumbency
Colchester11.5East of EnglandWill Quince Double incumbency
Cheltenham12.1South WestAlex ChalkDouble incumbency
Berwick-upon-Tweed12.2North EastAnne-Marie Trevelyan Double incumbency
Cheadle12.3North WestMary RobinsonDouble incumbency
Portsmouth South12.5South EastFlick DrummondDouble incumbency
Brecon and Radnorshire12.7WalesChris DaviesDouble incumbency
North Devon13.3South WestPeter Heaton-JonesDouble incumbency
Wells13.3South WestJames HeappeyDouble incumbency
North Cornwall13.7South WestScott MannDouble incumbency
Hazel Grove15.2North WestWilliam WraggDouble incumbency
Montgomeryshire15.8WalesGlyn Davies
St Austell and Newquay16.2South WestSteve DoubleDouble incumbency
Eastleigh16.5South EastMims DaviesDouble incumbency
Oxford West and Abingdon16.8South EastNicola Blackwood
Bosworth20.5East MidlandsDavid Tredinnick
Chippenham21.0South WestMichelle DonelanDouble incumbency
Maidstone and The Weald21.4South EastHelen Grant
Mid Dorset and North Poole22.6South WestMichael TomlinsonDouble incumbency
Newton Abbot23.4South WestAnne-Marie Morris
Solihull23.6West MidlandsJulian KnightDouble incumbency
Watford25.4East of EnglandRichard HarringtonFrom Third
Taunton Deane26.8South WestRebecca PowDouble incumbency
Truro and Falmouth27.5South WestSarah Newton
Camborne and Redruth27.8South WestGeorge EusticeFrom Fourth
Derby North28.1East MidlandsAmanda SollowayFrom Third
St Albans28.1East of EnglandAnne MainFrom Third
South East Cambridgeshire28.3East of EnglandLucy Frazer
West Dorset28.6South WestOliver Letwin
Winchester30.6South EastSteve Brine
Harrogate and Knaresborough30.7Yorkshire and the HumberAndrew Jones
Canterbury31.2South EastJulian BrazierFrom Fourth
Thurrock32.5East of EnglandJackie Doyle-PriceFrom Fourth
South West Norfolk33.2East of EnglandElizabeth TrussFrom Fourth
Isle of Wight33.2South EastAndrew TurnerFrom Fourth
Gower33.5WalesByron DaviesFrom Fifth; gained from Labour
Bridgwater and West Somerset33.5South WestIan Liddell-Grainger
Plymouth Sutton and Devonport33.6South WestOliver ColvileFrom Fifth
Somerton and Frome33.6South WestDavid WarburtonDouble incumbency
South East Cornwall33.7South WestSheryl Murray
Plymouth Moor View34.6South WestJohnny MercerFrom Fourth; gained from Labour
South Cambridgeshire35.9East of EnglandHeidi AllenFrom Third
Peterborough35.9East of EnglandStewart JacksonFrom Fourth
Morley and Outwood36.0Yorkshire and the HumberAndrea Jenkyns From Fourth; gained from Labour

1 comment:

  1. I expect to see LD gains from Labour and Conservative and SNP.

    However I think we may also see a couple of losses. They should lose Richmond as Goldsmith standing again although this does not count as GE to GE gain and I think they may lose Southport as sometimes they lose seats where MP retires apart from in 2015 of course.