Thursday, 27 April 2017

Conservative targets seats from Labour #GE2017

collated by and it is a great account to follow @220_d_92_20

What does "double incumbency" mean?

There is a noticeable 'incumbency effect' whereby a sitting MP gets additional votes (from having supported local non-partisan campaigns, helped people in surgery cases, and just been known in the area). So if the incumbent MP changes, then the previous MP loses their incumbency bonus while the incoming one gains it - hence the 'double incumbency'. It means seats that changed hands tend to show a relative move towards the party which gained them and are resistant to changing back at the next election.

ConstituencySwing neededLocationLabour candidateNote
City of Chester0.1North WestChris MathesonDouble incumbency
Ealing Central and Acton0.3LondonRupa HuqDouble incumbency
Brentford and Isleworth0.4LondonRuth CadburyDouble incumbency
Halifax0.5Yorkshire and the HumberHolly Lynch
Wirral West0.5North WestMargaret GreenwoodDouble incumbency
Ilford North0.6LondonWes StreetingDouble incumbency
Newcastle-under-Lyme0.8West MidlandsPaul Farrelly
Barrow and Furness0.9North WestJohn Woodcock
Wolverhampton South West1.0West Midlands
Hampstead and Kilburn1.1LondonTulip Siddiq
Enfield North1.2LondonJoan RyanDouble incumbency
Hove1.2South EastPeter KyleDouble incumbency
Dewsbury1.4Yorkshire and the HumberPaula SherriffDouble incumbency
Lancaster and Fleetwood1.5North WestCat SmithDouble incumbency
North East Derbyshire2.0East MidlandsNatascha Engel
Harrow West2.4LondonGareth Thomas
Bridgend2.4WalesMadeleine Moon
Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland2.5North East
Westminster North2.5LondonKaren Buck
Walsall North2.6West MidlandsDavid Winnick
Tooting2.7LondonRosena Allin-Khan
Wrexham2.8WalesIan Lucas
Birmingham Northfield3.0West MidlandsRichard Burden
Wakefield3.0Yorkshire and the HumberMary Creagh
Gedling3.1East MidlandsVernon Coaker
Eltham3.1LondonClive Efford
Copeland3.2North West
Stoke-on-Trent South3.2West MidlandsRobert Flello
Birmingham Edgbaston3.3West Midlands
Clwyd South3.4WalesSusan Elan Jones
Coventry South3.6West MidlandsJim Cunningham
Darlington3.8North EastJenny Chapman
Delyn3.9WalesDavid Hanson
Blackpool South4.0North WestGordon Marsden
Alyn and Deeside4.0WalesMark Tami
Scunthorpe4.2Yorkshire and the HumberNic Dakin
Bristol East4.3South WestKerry McCarthy
Newport West4.3WalesPaul Flynn
Southampton Test4.4South EastAlan Whitehead
Chorley4.4North WestLindsay Hoyle
Bishop Auckland4.5North EastHelen Goodman
Ynys Môn5.0WalesAlbert OwenFrom third
Coventry North West5.0West MidlandsGeoffrey Robinson
Bolton North East5.1North WestDavid Crausby
Hyndburn5.1North WestGraham Jones
Wirral South5.5North WestAlison McGovern
Dudley North5.5West MidlandsIan Austin
Mansfield5.6East MidlandsAlan Meale
Bury South5.9North WestIvan Lewis
Batley and Spen6.0Yorkshire and the HumberTracy Brabin
Workington6.1North WestSue Hayman
Stoke-on-Trent North6.3West MidlandsRuth Smeeth
Exeter6.6South WestBen Bradshaw
Ellesmere Port and Neston6.7North WestJustin Madders
Great Grimsby6.7Yorkshire and the HumberMelanie Onn
Oldham East and Saddleworth6.7North WestDebbie Abraham
Luton South6.8East of EnglandGavin Shuker
Hammersmith6.8LondonAndy Slaughter
Newport East6.9WalesJessica Morden
Bristol South7.0South WestKarin Smyth
York Central7.0Yorkshire and the HumberRachael Maskell
Worsley and Eccles South7.1North WestBarbara Keeley
Penistone and Stocksbridge7.2Yorkshire and the HumberAngela Smith
Walsall South7.2West MidlandsValerie Vaz
Hartlepool7.4North EastFrom third
Birmingham Erdington7.4West MidlandsJack Dromey
Leeds North East7.5Yorkshire and the HumberFabian Hamilton
Slough7.6South East
Tynemouth7.7North EastAlan Campbell
Cardiff West7.8WalesKevin Brennan
Norwich South7.9East of EnglandClive Lewis
Nottingham South8.0East MidlandsLilian Greenwood
Cardiff South and Penarth8.0WalesStephen Doughty
Wolverhampton North East8.1West MidlandsEmma Reynolds
Stalybridge and Hyde8.1North WestJonathan Reynolds
Stoke-on-Trent Central8.4West MidlandsGareth SnellFrom third
West Lancashire8.4North WestRosie Cooper
Dagenham and Rainham8.6LondonJon CruddasFrom third
Bradford South8.6Yorkshire and the HumberJudith Cummins
Sedgefield8.8North EastPhil Wilson
Bassetlaw9.0East MidlandsJohn Mann
Huddersfield9.1Yorkshire and the HumberBarry Sheerman
Ashfield9.3East MidlandsGloria de Piero
Birmingham Selly Oak9.3West MidlandsSteve McCabe
Warrington North9.8North WestHelen Jones
Swansea West10.0WalesGeraint Davies
Rother Valley10.2Yorkshire and the HumberKevin BarronFrom third
Cambridge10.2East of EnglandDaniel ZeichnerFrom third
Bristol West10.3South WestThangam DebbonaireFrom fourth
Brent North10.4LondonBarry Gardiner
Leicester West10.4East MidlandsElizabeth Kendall
Don Valley10.5Yorkshire and the HumberCaroline Flint
Stockton North10.6North EastAlex Cunningham
Derby South10.8East MidlandsMargaret Beckett
Luton North11.2East of EnglandKelvin Hopkins
Erith and Thamesmead11.2LondonTeresa Pearce
Newcastle upon Tyne North11.3North EastCatherine McKinnell
Torfaen11.4WalesNick Thomas-Symonds
Feltham and Heston11.6LondonSeema Malhotra
West Bromwich West11.7West MidlandsAdrian BaileyFrom third
North West Durham11.7North East
Pontypridd11.9WalesOwen Smith
Heywood and Middleton12.0North WestLiz McInnesFrom third
Burnley12.0North WestJulie CooperFrom fourth
Sefton Central12.1North WestBill Esterson
Wythenshawe and Sale East12.2North WestMichael Kane
Blyth Valley12.3North EastRonnie CampbellFrom third
City of Durham12.5North EastRoberta Blackman-Woods
Stretford and Urmston12.6North WestKate Green
West Bromwich East12.6West MidlandsTom Watson
Cardiff Central12.7WalesJo StevensFrom third
Stockport12.7North WestAnn Coffey
Ealing North12.7LondonStephen Pound
Greenwich and Woolwich12.8LondonMatthew Pennycook
Lewisham West and Penge13.2London
Sunderland Central13.4North EastJulie Elliott
Bolsover13.4East MidlandsDennis Skinner
Vauxhall13.4LondonKate Hoey
Llanelli13.5WalesNia GriffithFrom fourth
Denton and Reddish13.6North WestAndrew Gwynne
Ashton under Lyne13.8North WestAngela Rayner
Redcar13.8North EastAnna TurleyFrom fourth
Birmingham Yardley13.8West MidlandsJess PhillipsFrom fourth
Caerphilly13.9WalesWayne DavidFrom third
Leeds West14.0Yorkshire and the HumberRachel Reeves
Streatham14.0LondonChuka Umunna
Wansbeck14.1North EastIan Lavery
Doncaster Central14.2Yorkshire and the HumberRosie WintertonFrom third
Hemsworth14.2Yorkshire and the HumberJon Trickett
Neath14.2WalesChristina ReesFrom fourth
Islington South and Finsbury14.4LondonEmily Thornberry
Blackburn14.5North WestKate Hollern
Coventry North East14.5West MidlandsColleen Fletcher
Salford and Eccles14.6North WestRebecca Long-Bailey
Rochdale14.8North WestSimon DanczukFrom third
Chesterfield14.9East MidlandsToby Perkins


  1. Lindsay Hoyle has long been favourite to succeed John Bercow as Speaker even if he had to wait till 2020. However we have a General Election now and I expect him not to returned as MP for Chorley.

  2. UKIP who are obviously going to lose Clacton their only seat from GE2015, may have a hope in Hartlepool if UKIP vote holds or declines less than Labour vote declines. This is a 3 way marginal Lab/Con/UKIP for GE2017.

  3. UKIP without Farage are nothing to be honest, with Brexit already won, I can see it being difficult for the party to even put up the numbers of candidates they did last time. Hartlepool I presume has a strong branch, so will poll the highest even higher than Clacton I presume. But UKIP will disappear after this election.

    It is how bad will it be for Labour and how many seats the Lib Dems could get back themselves.

    I think the only folks that will be swinging, is UKIP voters to the Conservatives and a few remainers and disgruntled Labour supporters going to the Lib Dems but after tution fees, I hear only I will never vote Libdem from where I live. I can actually see the greens gaining Bristol West and probably challenging in a few others and PC going to 4 or 5 in Wales with the SNPs only threat coming from the pro unionist Conservatives.