Thursday 27 April 2017

Labour seats Potentially already Lost to the Conservatives thanks to UKIP votes

I know sometimes things can be over simplified but for this exercise I am using the amount of UKIP votes in a constituency and what percentage of them would be needed to wipe out a Labour majority over the Conservative candidate.

If Opinion polls are to believed, it is suggested that between 30 to 50 percent of UKIP voters are now saying they will vote Conservative.

Also explains May's strong message on Brexit as UKIP itself implodes.

Blue indicates under 50% of the UKIP vote needed to wipe the Labour majority so vulnerable to a Conservative gain

Black means over 50% so vulnerable but harder for the Conservatives to gain just with UKIP switching support

Red meaning safe from just UKIP switchers


ConstituencyLabour maj over ConservativesLocationUKIP Votes GE2015% of UKIP vote needed to take the seat
City of Chester93North West4,1482.26%
Ealing Central and Acton274London1,92614.22%
Brentford and Isleworth465London3,20314.51%
Halifax428Yorkshire and the Humber5,6217.61%
Wirral West417North West2,77215.04%
Ilford North589London4,35513.52%
Newcastle-under-Lyme650West Midlands7,2528.96%
Barrow and Furness795North West5,07015.68%
Wolverhampton South West801West Midlands4,31018.58%
Hampstead and Kilburn1,138London1,53274.28%
Enfield North1,086London4,13326.27%
Hove1,236South East3,26537.85%
Dewsbury1,451Yorkshire and the Humber6,64921.82%
Lancaster and Fleetwood1,265North West4,06031.15%
North East Derbyshire1,883East Midlands7,63124.67%
Harrow West2,208London2,047100% +
Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland2,268North East6,93532.7%
Westminster North1,977London1,489100% +
Walsall North1,937West Midlands8,12223.84%

Birmingham Northfield2,509West Midlands7,10635.3%
Wakefield2,613Yorkshire and the Humber7,86233.23%
Gedling2,986East Midlands6,93043.08%

Stoke-on-Trent South2,539West Midlands8,29830.59%
Birmingham Edgbaston2,706West Midlands4,15465.14%
Clwyd South2,402Wales5,48043.83%
Coventry South3.188West Midlands5,70955.8%
Darlington3,158North East5,39258.56%
Blackpool South2,585North West5,61346.05%
Alyn and Deeside3,343Wales7.26046.04%
Scunthorpe3,134Yorkshire and the Humber6,32949.51%
Bristol East3,980South West7,15255.64%
Newport West3,510Wales6,13457.22%
Southampton Test3,810South East5,56668.45%
Chorley4,530North West6,99564.76%
Bishop Auckland3,508North East7,01550.00%
Ynys Môn229 maj over pcWalesAlbert OwenPC main threat
Coventry North West4,509West Midlands7,10163.49%
Bolton North East4,377North West8,11753.92%
Hyndburn4,400North West9,15448.06%
Wirral South4,599North West3,737100% +
Dudley North4,181West Midlands9,11345.87%
Mansfield5,315East Midlands11,85044.85%
Bury South4,922North West6,29978.13%

Workington4,686North West7,53862.16%
Stoke-on-Trent North4,836West Midlands9,54250.68%
Exeter7,183South West5,075100%+
Ellesmere Port and Neston6,275North West5,594100% +

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