Thursday, 27 April 2017

Liberal Democrat target seats from Labour #GE2017

collated by and it is a great account to follow @220_d_92_20

What does "double incumbency" mean?

There is a noticeable 'incumbency effect' whereby a sitting MP gets additional votes (from having supported local non-partisan campaigns, helped people in surgery cases, and just been known in the area). So if the incumbent MP changes, then the previous MP loses their incumbency bonus while the incoming one gains it - hence the 'double incumbency'. It means seats that changed hands tend to show a relative move towards the party which gained them and are resistant to changing back at the next election.

ConstituencyMajority over LabourLocationLabour candidateNote
Cambridge1.2East of EnglandDaniel ZeichnerDouble incumbency
Burnley8.2North WestJulie CooperDouble incumbency
Bermondsey and Old Southwark8.7LondonNeil CoyleDouble incumbency
Cardiff Central12.9WalesJo StevensDouble incumbency
Birmingham Yardley16.1West MidlandsJess PhillipsDouble incumbency
Bristol West16.8South WestThangam DebbonaireDouble incumbency
Bradford East17.1Yorkshire and the HumberImran HussainDouble incumbency
Hornsey and Wood Green19.2LondonCatherine WestDouble incumbency
Redcar25.4North EastAnna TurleyDouble incumbency
Norwich South25.6East of EnglandClive LewisDouble incumbency; from third
Ashfield26.2East MidlandsGloria de PieroFrom fourth
Oldham East and Saddleworth26.6North WestDebbie AbrahamsFrom fourth
Pontypridd28.1WalesOwen SmithFrom fourth
Ynys Môn29.0WalesAlbert OwenFrom fourth
Bristol South29.7South WestKarin SmythFrom fourth
Manchester Withington29.8North WestJeff SmithDouble incumbency
Wrexham31.9WalesIan LucasFrom fourth
Bridgend32.9WalesMadeleine MoonFrom fifth
Clwyd South33.4WalesSusan Elan JonesFrom fourth
Bristol East33.5South WestKerry McCarthyFrom fifth
Swansea West33.5WalesGeraint DaviesFrom fourth
Hartlepool33.7North EastFrom fifth
Chesterfield34.1East MidlandsToby PerkinsFrom fifth
Newcastle-under-Lyme34.2West MidlandsPaul FarrellyFrom fourth
York Central34.4Yorkshire and the HumberRachael MaskellFrom fifth
Great Grimsby34.8Yorkshire and the HumberMelanie OnnFom fourth

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