A list of Labour target seats from Conservative #GE2017

collated by and it is a great account to follow @220_d_92_20

What does "double incumbency" mean?

There is a noticeable 'incumbency effect' whereby a sitting MP gets additional votes (from having supported local non-partisan campaigns, helped people in surgery cases, and just been known in the area). So if the incumbent MP changes, then the previous MP loses their incumbency bonus while the incoming one gains it - hence the 'double incumbency'. It means seats that changed hands tend to show a relative move towards the party which gained them and are resistant to changing back at the next election.

Constituency	Swing needed	Location	Conservative candidate	Note
Gower	0.0	Wales	Byron Davies	Double incumbency
Derby North	0.0	East Midlands	Amanda Solloway	Double incumbency
Croydon Central	0.2	London	Gavin Barwell
Vale of Clwyd	0.3	Wales	James Davies	Double incumbency
Bury North	0.4	North West	David Nuttall
Morley and Outwood	0.4	Yorkshire and the Humber	Andrea Jenkyns	Double incumbency
Thurrock	0.5	East of England	Jackie Doyle-Price
Plymouth Sutton and Devonport	0.5	South West	Oliver Colvile
Brighton Kemptown	0.8	South East	Simon Kirby
Bolton West	0.8	North West	Chris Green	Double incumbency
Weaver Vale	0.9	North West	Graham Evans
Telford	0.9	West Midlands	Lucy Allan	Double incumbency
Bedford	1.2	East of England	Richard Fuller
Plymouth Moor View	1.2	South West	Johnny Mercer	Double incumbency
Lincoln	1.5	East Midlands	Karl McCartney
Peterborough	2.0	East of England	Stewart Jackson
Cardiff North	2.1	Wales	Craig Williams
Corby	2.1	East Midlands	Tom Pursglove	Double incumbency
Waveney	2.3	East of England	Peter Aldous
Warrington South	2.3	North West	David Mowat
Southampton Itchen	2.6	South East	Royston Smith	Double incumbency
Keighley	3.1	Yorkshire and the Humber	Kris Hopkins
North Warwickshire	3.1	West Midlands	Craig Tracey
Carlisle	3.3	North West	John Stevenson
Halesowen and Rowley Regis	3.5	West Midlands	James Morris
Crewe and Nantwich	3.6	North West	Edward Timpson
Erewash	3.7	East Midlands	Maggie Throup
Hendon	3.8	London	Dr Matthew Offord
Ipswich	3.8	East of England	Ben Gummer
Stroud	4.0	South West	Neil Carmichael
Broxtowe	4.0	East Midlands	Anna Soubry
Northampton North	4.1	East Midlands	Michael Ellis
Calder Valley	4.1	Yorkshire and the Humber	Craig Whittaker
Blackpool North and Cleveleys	4.2	North West	Paul Maynard
Pudsey	4.4	Yorkshire and the Humber	Stuart Andrew
Sherwood	4.6	East Midlands	Mark Spencer
Amber Valley	4.6	East Midlands	Nigel Mills
Hastings and Rye	4.7	South East	Amber Rudd
Colne Valley	4.7	Yorkshire and the Humber	Jason McCartney
Bristol North West	4.8	South West	Charlotte Leslie
High Peak	4.8	East Midlands	Andrew Bingham
Harrow East	4.9	London	Bob Blackman
Stockton South	4.9	North East	James Wharton
Northampton South	4.9	East Midlands	David Mackintosh
Norwich North	5.1	East of England	Chloë Smith
Stevenage	5.2	East of England	Stephen McPartland
Enfield Southgate	5.2	London	David Burrowes
Cannock Chase	5.2	West Midlands	Amanda Milling
Morecambe and Lunesdale	5.3	North West	David Morris
Nuneaton	5.3	West Midlands	Marcus Jones
Finchley and Golders Green	5.6	London	Mike Freer
Dudley South	5.6	West Midlands	Mike Wood
South Ribble	5.7	North West	Seema Kennedy
Worcester	5.7	West Midlands	Robin Walker
Rossendale and Darwen	5.8	North West	Jake Berry
South Swindon	5.9	South West	Robert Buckland
Preseli Pembrokeshire	6.1	Wales	Stephen Crabb
Pendle	6.1	North West	Andrew Stephenson
Dover	6.3	South East	Charlie Elphicke
Reading East	6.5	South East	Rob Wilson
Scarborough and Whitby	6.5	Yorkshire and the Humber	Robert Goodwill
Warwick and Leamington	6.5	West Midlands	Chris White
Aberconwy	6.6	Wales	Guto Bebb
Crawley	6.7	South East	Henry Smith
Vale of Glamorgan	6.7	Wales	Alun Cairns
Reading West	6.9	South East	Alok Sharma
Gloucester	6.9	South West	Richard Graham
Great Yarmouth	6.9	East of England	Brandon Lewis
Chipping Barnet	7.2	London	Theresa Villiers
South Thanet	7.2	South East	Craig Mackinlay	From Third
Stourbridge	7.3	West Midlands	Margot James
Elmet and Rothwell	7.3	Yorkshire and the Humber	Alec Shelbrooke
Milton Keynes South	7.4	South East	Iain Stewart
Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South	7.5	Wales	Simon Hart
Camborne and Redruth	7.6	South West	George Eustice
Portsmouth South	7.6	South East	Flick Drummond	From Third
Battersea	7.8	London	Jane Ellison
Redditch	8.0	West Midlands	Karen Lumley
Gravesham	8.4	South East	Adam Holloway
Milton Keynes North	8.5	South East	Mark Lancaster
Watford	8.7	East of England	Richard Harrington
Cleethorpes	8.8	Yorkshire and the Humber	Martin Vickers
Loughborough	8.8	East Midlands	Nicky Morgan
Shrewsbury and Atcham	8.8	West Midlands	Daniel Kawczynski
Clwyd West	8.9	Wales	David Jones
South Basildon and East Thurrock	9.1	East of England	Stephen Metcalfe	From Third
Canterbury	9.2	South East	Julian Brazier
Kingswood	9.4	South West	Chris Skidmore
Stafford	9.4	West Midlands	Jeremy Lefroy
Harlow	9.4	East of England	Robert Halfon
Shipley	9.5	Yorkshire and the Humber	Philip Davies
Chingford and Woodford Green	9.6	London	Iain Duncan Smith
Filton and Bradley Stoke	9.8	South West	Jack LoPresti
Basingstoke	10.4	South East	Maria Miller
Bexleyheath and Crayford	10.5	London	David Evennett
Rugby	10.6	West Midlands	Mark Pawsey
Kensington	10.7	London	Victoria Borwick
Rochford and Southend East	10.9	East of England	James Duddridge
North West Leicestershire	11.0	East Midlands	Andrew Bridgen
Forest of Dean	11.1	South West	Mark Harper
Gillingham and Rainham	11.2	South East	Rehman Chishti
North Swindon	11.3	South West	Justin Tomlinson
South Derbyshire	11.3	East Midlands	Heather Wheeler
Colchester	11.4	East of England	Will Quince	From Third
Burton	11.4	West Midlands	Andrew Griffiths
Monmouth	11.6	Wales	David Davies
Beverley and Holderness	11.6	Yorkshire and the Humber	Graham Stuart
Portsmouth North	11.6	South East	Penny Mordaunt
St Albans	11.7	East of England	Anne Main
Dartford	11.8	South East	Gareth Johnson
The Wrekin	11.8	West Midlands	Mark Pritchard
Putney	11.9	London	Justine Greening
Hazel Grove	11.9	North West	William Wragg	From Third
Staffordshire Moorlands	11.9	West Midlands	Karen Bradley
Uxbridge and South Ruislip	12.0	London	Boris Johnson
Tamworth	12.0	West Midlands	Christopher Pincher
Welwyn Hatfield	12.1	East of England	Grant Shapps
Rochester and Strood	12.1	South East	Kelly Tolhurst	From Third
York Outer	12.2	Yorkshire and the Humber	Julian Sturdy
South Dorset	12.3	South West	Richard Drax
Kingston and Surbiton	12.4	London	James Berry	From Third
Bath	12.5	South West	Ben Howlett	From Third
North East Somerset	12.5	South West	Jacob Rees-Mogg
Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale	12.5	Scotland	David Mundell	From Third
Rushcliffe	12.5	East Midlands	Kenneth Clarke
Bosworth	12.7	East Midlands	David Tredinnick	From Third
Selby and Ainsty	12.8	Yorkshire and the Humber	Nigel Adams
Brigg and Goole	12.9	Yorkshire and the Humber	Andrew Percy
Wyre Forest	13.0	West Midlands	Mark Garnier
Ribble Valley	13.0	North West	Nigel Evans
Wimbledon	13.0	London	Stephen Hammond
Berwick-upon-Tweed	13.1	North East	Anne-Marie Trevelyan	From Third
Altrincham and Sale West	13.2	North West	Graham Brady
Brecon and Radnorshire	13.2	Wales	Chris Davies
Chatham and Aylesford	13.3	South East	Tracey Crouch
Kettering	13.3	East Midlands	Philip Hollobone
Mid Derbyshire	13.4	East Midlands	Pauline Latham
Cities of London and Westminster	13.4	London	Mark Field
Cheadle	13.5	North West	Mary Robinson	From Third
Eddisbury	13.7	North West	Antoinette Sandbach
Boston and Skegness	13.8	East Midlands	Matt Warman	From Third
Hexham	13.9	North East	Guy Opperman
Isle of Wight	13.9	South East	Andrew Turner	From Third
Lewes	14.1	South East	Maria Caulfield	From Fourth
Bridgwater and West Somerset	14.2	South West	Ian Liddell-Grainger	From Third
Wyre and Preston North	14.2	North West	Ben Wallace
Hornchurch and Upminster	14.4	London		From Third
Wycombe	14.4	South East	Steven Baker
St Ives	14.5	South West	Derek Thomas	From Fourth
Basildon and Billericay	14.5	East of England	John Baron
Hemel Hempstead	14.5	East of England	Michael Penning
Truro and Falmouth	14.6	South West	Sarah Newton	From Third
Eastleigh	14.7	South East	Mims Davies	From Fourth
North West Norfolk	14.7	East of England	Henry Bellingham
Derbyshire Dales	14.8	East Midlands	Patrick McLoughlin
Aldridge-Brownhills	14.8	West Midlands	Wendy Morton
Weston-Super-Mare	14.9	South West	John Penrose
Croydon South	14.9	London	Chris Philp
Twickenham	14.9	London	Tania Mathias	From Third
Macclesfield	14.9	North West	David Rutley
East Yorkshire	14.9	Yorkshire and the Humber	Sir Greg Knight
Sittingbourne and Sheppey	14.9	South East	Gordon Henderson	From Third
East Worthing and Shoreham	15.0	South East	Tim Loughton	From Third
St Austell and Newquay	15.0	South West	Steve Double	From Fourth