Thursday, 27 April 2017

A list of Labour target seats from Conservative #GE2017

collated by and it is a great account to follow @220_d_92_20

What does "double incumbency" mean?

There is a noticeable 'incumbency effect' whereby a sitting MP gets additional votes (from having supported local non-partisan campaigns, helped people in surgery cases, and just been known in the area). So if the incumbent MP changes, then the previous MP loses their incumbency bonus while the incoming one gains it - hence the 'double incumbency'. It means seats that changed hands tend to show a relative move towards the party which gained them and are resistant to changing back at the next election.

ConstituencySwing neededLocationConservative candidateNote
Gower0.0WalesByron DaviesDouble incumbency
Derby North0.0East MidlandsAmanda SollowayDouble incumbency
Croydon Central0.2LondonGavin Barwell
Vale of Clwyd0.3WalesJames DaviesDouble incumbency
Bury North0.4North WestDavid Nuttall
Morley and Outwood0.4Yorkshire and the HumberAndrea Jenkyns Double incumbency
Thurrock0.5East of EnglandJackie Doyle-Price
Plymouth Sutton and Devonport0.5South WestOliver Colvile
Brighton Kemptown0.8South EastSimon Kirby
Bolton West0.8North WestChris GreenDouble incumbency
Weaver Vale0.9North WestGraham Evans
Telford0.9West MidlandsLucy AllanDouble incumbency
Bedford1.2East of EnglandRichard Fuller
Plymouth Moor View1.2South WestJohnny MercerDouble incumbency
Lincoln1.5East MidlandsKarl McCartney
Peterborough2.0East of EnglandStewart Jackson
Cardiff North2.1WalesCraig Williams
Corby2.1East MidlandsTom PursgloveDouble incumbency
Waveney2.3East of EnglandPeter Aldous
Warrington South2.3North WestDavid Mowat
Southampton Itchen2.6South EastRoyston SmithDouble incumbency
Keighley3.1Yorkshire and the HumberKris Hopkins
North Warwickshire3.1West MidlandsCraig Tracey
Carlisle3.3North WestJohn Stevenson
Halesowen and Rowley Regis3.5West MidlandsJames Morris
Crewe and Nantwich3.6North WestEdward Timpson
Erewash3.7East MidlandsMaggie Throup
Hendon3.8LondonDr Matthew Offord
Ipswich3.8East of EnglandBen Gummer
Stroud4.0South WestNeil Carmichael
Broxtowe4.0East MidlandsAnna Soubry
Northampton North4.1East MidlandsMichael Ellis
Calder Valley4.1Yorkshire and the HumberCraig Whittaker
Blackpool North and Cleveleys4.2North WestPaul Maynard
Pudsey4.4Yorkshire and the HumberStuart Andrew
Sherwood4.6East MidlandsMark Spencer
Amber Valley4.6East MidlandsNigel Mills
Hastings and Rye4.7South EastAmber Rudd
Colne Valley4.7Yorkshire and the HumberJason McCartney
Bristol North West4.8South WestCharlotte Leslie
High Peak4.8East MidlandsAndrew Bingham
Harrow East4.9LondonBob Blackman
Stockton South4.9North EastJames Wharton
Northampton South4.9East MidlandsDavid Mackintosh
Norwich North5.1East of EnglandChloë Smith
Stevenage5.2East of EnglandStephen McPartland
Enfield Southgate5.2LondonDavid Burrowes
Cannock Chase5.2West MidlandsAmanda Milling
Morecambe and Lunesdale5.3North WestDavid Morris
Nuneaton5.3West MidlandsMarcus Jones
Finchley and Golders Green5.6LondonMike Freer
Dudley South5.6West MidlandsMike Wood
South Ribble5.7North WestSeema Kennedy
Worcester5.7West MidlandsRobin Walker
Rossendale and Darwen5.8North WestJake Berry
South Swindon5.9South WestRobert Buckland
Preseli Pembrokeshire6.1WalesStephen Crabb
Pendle6.1North WestAndrew Stephenson
Dover6.3South EastCharlie Elphicke
Reading East6.5South EastRob Wilson
Scarborough and Whitby6.5Yorkshire and the HumberRobert Goodwill
Warwick and Leamington6.5West MidlandsChris White
Aberconwy6.6WalesGuto Bebb
Crawley6.7South EastHenry Smith
Vale of Glamorgan6.7WalesAlun Cairns
Reading West6.9South EastAlok Sharma
Gloucester6.9South WestRichard Graham
Great Yarmouth6.9East of EnglandBrandon Lewis
Chipping Barnet7.2LondonTheresa Villiers
South Thanet7.2South EastCraig MackinlayFrom Third
Stourbridge7.3West MidlandsMargot James
Elmet and Rothwell7.3Yorkshire and the HumberAlec Shelbrooke
Milton Keynes South7.4South EastIain Stewart
Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South7.5WalesSimon Hart
Camborne and Redruth7.6South WestGeorge Eustice
Portsmouth South7.6South EastFlick DrummondFrom Third
Battersea7.8LondonJane Ellison
Redditch8.0West MidlandsKaren Lumley
Gravesham8.4South EastAdam Holloway
Milton Keynes North8.5South EastMark Lancaster
Watford8.7East of EnglandRichard Harrington
Cleethorpes8.8Yorkshire and the HumberMartin Vickers
Loughborough8.8East MidlandsNicky Morgan
Shrewsbury and Atcham8.8West MidlandsDaniel Kawczynski
Clwyd West8.9WalesDavid Jones
South Basildon and East Thurrock9.1East of EnglandStephen MetcalfeFrom Third
Canterbury9.2South EastJulian Brazier
Kingswood9.4South WestChris Skidmore
Stafford9.4West MidlandsJeremy Lefroy
Harlow9.4East of EnglandRobert Halfon
Shipley9.5Yorkshire and the HumberPhilip Davies
Chingford and Woodford Green9.6LondonIain Duncan Smith
Filton and Bradley Stoke9.8South WestJack LoPresti
Basingstoke10.4South EastMaria Miller
Bexleyheath and Crayford10.5LondonDavid Evennett
Rugby10.6West MidlandsMark Pawsey
Kensington10.7LondonVictoria Borwick
Rochford and Southend East10.9East of EnglandJames Duddridge
North West Leicestershire11.0East MidlandsAndrew Bridgen
Forest of Dean11.1South WestMark Harper
Gillingham and Rainham11.2South EastRehman Chishti
North Swindon11.3South WestJustin Tomlinson
South Derbyshire11.3East MidlandsHeather Wheeler
Colchester11.4East of EnglandWill Quince From Third
Burton11.4West MidlandsAndrew Griffiths
Monmouth11.6WalesDavid Davies
Beverley and Holderness11.6Yorkshire and the HumberGraham Stuart
Portsmouth North11.6South EastPenny Mordaunt
St Albans11.7East of EnglandAnne Main
Dartford11.8South EastGareth Johnson
The Wrekin11.8West MidlandsMark Pritchard
Putney11.9LondonJustine Greening
Hazel Grove11.9North WestWilliam WraggFrom Third
Staffordshire Moorlands11.9West MidlandsKaren Bradley
Uxbridge and South Ruislip12.0LondonBoris Johnson
Tamworth12.0West MidlandsChristopher Pincher
Welwyn Hatfield12.1East of EnglandGrant Shapps
Rochester and Strood12.1South EastKelly TolhurstFrom Third
York Outer12.2Yorkshire and the HumberJulian Sturdy
South Dorset12.3South WestRichard Drax
Kingston and Surbiton12.4LondonJames BerryFrom Third
Bath12.5South WestBen HowlettFrom Third
North East Somerset12.5South WestJacob Rees-Mogg
Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale12.5ScotlandDavid MundellFrom Third
Rushcliffe12.5East MidlandsKenneth Clarke
Bosworth12.7East MidlandsDavid TredinnickFrom Third
Selby and Ainsty12.8Yorkshire and the HumberNigel Adams
Brigg and Goole12.9Yorkshire and the HumberAndrew Percy
Wyre Forest13.0West MidlandsMark Garnier
Ribble Valley13.0North WestNigel Evans
Wimbledon13.0LondonStephen Hammond
Berwick-upon-Tweed13.1North EastAnne-Marie Trevelyan From Third
Altrincham and Sale West13.2North WestGraham Brady
Brecon and Radnorshire13.2WalesChris Davies
Chatham and Aylesford13.3South EastTracey Crouch
Kettering13.3East MidlandsPhilip Hollobone
Mid Derbyshire13.4East MidlandsPauline Latham
Cities of London and Westminster13.4LondonMark Field
Cheadle13.5North WestMary RobinsonFrom Third
Eddisbury13.7North WestAntoinette Sandbach
Boston and Skegness13.8East MidlandsMatt WarmanFrom Third
Hexham13.9North EastGuy Opperman
Isle of Wight13.9South EastAndrew TurnerFrom Third
Lewes14.1South EastMaria CaulfieldFrom Fourth
Bridgwater and West Somerset14.2South WestIan Liddell-GraingerFrom Third
Wyre and Preston North14.2North WestBen Wallace
Hornchurch and Upminster14.4LondonFrom Third
Wycombe14.4South EastSteven Baker
St Ives14.5South WestDerek ThomasFrom Fourth
Basildon and Billericay14.5East of EnglandJohn Baron
Hemel Hempstead14.5East of EnglandMichael Penning
Truro and Falmouth14.6South WestSarah NewtonFrom Third
Eastleigh14.7South EastMims DaviesFrom Fourth
North West Norfolk14.7East of EnglandHenry Bellingham
Derbyshire Dales14.8East MidlandsPatrick McLoughlin
Aldridge-Brownhills14.8West MidlandsWendy Morton
Weston-Super-Mare14.9South WestJohn Penrose
Croydon South14.9LondonChris Philp
Twickenham14.9LondonTania MathiasFrom Third
Macclesfield14.9North WestDavid Rutley
East Yorkshire14.9Yorkshire and the HumberSir Greg Knight
Sittingbourne and Sheppey14.9South EastGordon HendersonFrom Third
East Worthing and Shoreham15.0South EastTim LoughtonFrom Third
St Austell and Newquay15.0South WestSteve DoubleFrom Fourth

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