IAIN DALES General Election Predictions West Sussex

Originally posted here >>> http://www.iaindale.com/

Seats: 8
Current Political Makeup: Con 8
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Con 8
1. Arundel & South Downs
2010 Result:
Conservative: 32333 (57.8%)
Labour: 4835 (8.6%)
Lib Dem: 15642 (27.9%)
UKIP: 3172 (5.7%)
MAJORITY: 16691 (29.8%)
Sitting MP: Nick Herbert (Con)
Prediction: Increased Conservative majority
Nick Herbert already has a huge majority. It’s likely to get bigger.
2. Bognor Regis & Littlehampton
2010 Result:
Conservative: 24087 (51.4%)
Labour: 6580 (14%)
Lib Dem: 11024 (23.5%)
BNP: 1890 (4%)
UKIP: 3036 (6.5%)
Independent: 235 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 13063 (27.9%)
Sitting MP: Nick Gibb (Con)
Prediction: Definite Conservative hold
Safe seat. Another increased Tory majority is likely here.
3. Chichester
2010 Result:
Conservative: 31427 (55.3%)
Labour: 5937 (10.5%)
Lib Dem: 15550 (27.4%)
UKIP: 3873 (6.8%)
MAJORITY: 15877 (28%)
Sitting MP: Andrew Tyrie (Con)
Prediction: Increased Conservative majority
Yet another increased Tory majority is likely here.
4. Crawley
2010 Result:
Conservative: 21264 (44.8%)
Labour: 15336 (32.3%)
Lib Dem: 6844 (14.4%)
BNP: 1672 (3.5%)
Green: 598 (1.3%)
UKIP: 1382 (2.9%)
Independent: 143 (0.3%)
Others: 265 (0.6%)
MAJORITY: 5928 (12.5%)
Sitting MP: Henry Smith (Con)
Prediction: Narrow Conservative hold
Genuinely difficult to call. Labour throughout the Blair years, Crawley moved decisively towards the Tories in 2010, although the swing here wasn’t as large as the North Kent seats.
5. East Worthing & Shoreham
Conservative: 23458 (48.5%)
Labour: 8087 (16.7%)
Lib Dem: 12353 (25.5%)
Green: 1126 (2.3%)
UKIP: 2984 (6.2%)
English Dem: 389 (0.8%)
MAJORITY: 11105 (22.9%)
Sitting MP: Tim Loughton (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold
Tim Loughton is safe as houses here.
6. Horsham
2010 Result:
Conservative: 29447 (52.7%)
Labour: 4189 (7.5%)
Lib Dem: 17987 (32.2%)
Green: 570 (1%)
UKIP: 2839 (5.1%)
Christian: 469 (0.8%)
Independent: 87 (0.2%)
Others: 253 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 11460 (20.5%)
Sitting MP: Francis Maude (Con)
Prediction: Increased Conservative majority
Usual story. Collapsing LibDem vote to Labour leads to bigger Tory majority.
7. Mid Sussex
2010 Result:
Conservative: 29447 (52.7%)
Labour: 4189 (7.5%)
Lib Dem: 17987 (32.2%)
Green: 570 (1%)
UKIP: 2839 (5.1%)
Christian: 469 (0.8%)
Independent: 87 (0.2%)
Others: 253 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 11460 (20.5%)
Sitting MP: Sir Nicholas Soames (Con)
Prediction: Increased Conservative majority
Ditto above.
8. Worthing West
2010 Result:
Conservative: 25416 (51.7%)
Labour: 5800 (11.8%)
Lib Dem: 13687 (27.9%)
Green: 996 (2%)
UKIP: 2924 (6%)
Christian: 300 (0.6%)
MAJORITY: 11729 (23.9%)
Sitting MP: Sir Peter Bottomley (Con)
Prediction: Definite Conservative hold