#GE2015 Forecast (Dec 7th)

most recently on 07 December 2014 at 11:47. To read commentary on the election using these forecasts, follow Election4castUK on Twitter. If you would like to give us feedback on this forecast, please email us at feedback@electionforecast.co.uk

When reading our seat predictions, please keep in mind that our model may not know as much about your specific seat of interest as you do. The model knows how the general patterns of support across the UK have changed in constituencies with different kinds of political, geographic and demographic characteristics. The model uses the Ashcroft constituency polls where available, plus smaller samples of polling data for every constituency, extracted from pooling many national-level polls. However, the model does not know whether your MP is beloved by constituents or embroiled in scandal, nor does it know whether Boris Johnson or Nigel Farage is standing in your constituency, let alone what the implications of that might be. Some of this might be picked up in the polls, but not all of it will be, and we do not have much polling data to go on when it comes to constituencies. In the aggregate, these aspects of constituency-specific competition tend to average out across parties, but they certainly matter in individual constituencies. Think of our seat-level projections as a baseline for what you might expect from past election results, geography and demography, plus a little bit of polling data.

Sortable table of predicted vote share for every party in every seat.

Sortable table of predicted probability of victory for every party in every seat.

The following tables focuses on potential seat gains and losses for each of the parties, including only those seats for which the probability of a change of control is estimated at over 10%. If the table is blank, there are currently no such seats.

Conservatives:	Gains	Losses
Labour:	Gains	Losses
Liberal Democrats:	Gains	Losses
SNP:	Gains	Losses
Plaid Cymru:	Gains	Losses
Greens:	Gains	Losses
UKIP:	Gains	Losses

The following table provides the individual seat predictions, aggregated up to England, Scotland and Wales. Please note that these may not exactly match the totals in the main forecast table, as they are based on the individual seat forecasts..

	Con	Lab	LD	SNP	PC	GRN	UKIP	Oth
England	278	226	25	0	0	1	2	1
Scotland	1	19	1	38	0	0	0	0
Wales	7	29	2	0	2	0	0	0

The following table provides the individual seat predictions (columns), aggregated by the party that won the seat at the 2010 general election (rows). Please note that these may not exactly match the totals in the main forecast table, as they are based on the individual seat forecasts..

	Con	Lab	LD	SNP	PC	GRN	UKIP	Oth
2010 Con	275	29	0	0	0	0	2	0
2010 Lab	1	235	0	22	0	0	0	0
2010 LD	10	9	28	10	0	0	0	0
2010 SNP	0	0	0	6	0	0	0	0
2010 PC	0	1	0	0	2	0	0	0
2010 GRN	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0
2010 UKIP	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
2010 Oth	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1

Party	Lo	Seats	Hi	Swing
Conservatives	239	284	322	-22
Labour	237	276	323	18
Liberal Democrats	17	27	39	-30
SNP	25	37	49	31
Plaid Cymru	1	3	5	0
Greens	0	1	2	0
UKIP	1	3	7	3
Other	1	1	1	0