Iain Dales General Election Predictions 7: Berkshire

This is the seventh in a series of blogposts (scroll down for the others) which will seek to predict the outcome of every seat in the run-up to the next general election. The notion of a universal swing in May 2015 can be totally discounted. Each seat has to be treated on its merits. I’m starting off by trying to analyse the counties I know best, but eventually will turn to ones I know very little about at all. Feel free to add your comments and tell me where you think I have got things wrong. I will return to update each county analysis when and if I get new information.
Seats: 8
Current Political Makeup: Con 7, Lab 1
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Con 7, Lab 1

1. Bracknell
2010 Result:
Conservative: 27327 (52.4%)
Labour: 8755 (16.8%)
Lib Dem: 11623 (22.3%)
BNP: 1253 (2.4%)
Green: 821 (1.6%)
UKIP: 2297 (4.4%)
Others: 60 (0.1%)
MAJORITY: 15704 (30.1%)
Sitting MP: Philip Lee (Con)
Prediction: Definite Conservative hold
Safe as houses for the Tories.
2. Maidenhead
2010 Result:
Conservative: 31937 (59.5%)
Labour: 3795 (7.1%)
Lib Dem: 15168 (28.2%)
BNP: 825 (1.5%)
Green: 482 (0.9%)
UKIP: 1243 (2.3%)
Others: 270 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 16769 (31.2%)
Sitting MP: Theresa May (Con)
Prediction: Definite Conservative hold
No trouble for the Home Secretary. She could well increase her majority if the opposition votes split right.
3. Newbury
2010 Result:
Conservative: 33057 (56.4%)
Labour: 2505 (4.3%)
Lib Dem: 20809 (35.5%)
Green: 490 (0.8%)
UKIP: 1475 (2.5%)
Independent: 158 (0.3%)
Others: 95 (0.2%)
MAJORITY: 12248 (20.9%)
Sitting MP: Richard Benyon (Con)
Prediction: Increased Conservative majority
The Labour vote could well double in this seat … to 8% from 4%. If that happens, Richard Benyon gets an increased majority.
4. Reading East
2010 Result:
Conservative: 21269 (42.6%)
Labour: 12729 (25.5%)
Lib Dem: 13664 (27.3%)
Green: 1069 (2.1%)
UKIP: 1086 (2.2%)
Independent: 111 (0.2%)
Others: 57 (0.1%)
MAJORITY: 7605 (15.2%)
Sitting MP: Rob Wilson (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold
This was a Labour seat from 1997 till 2005 when Rob Wilson won it with a wafer thin majority of 475. Labour would really have to perform spectacularly well to win here again. I doubt they will even come close.
5. Reading West
2010 Result:
Conservative: 20523 (43.2%)
Labour: 14519 (30.5%)
Lib Dem: 9546 (20.1%)
Green: 582 (1.2%)
UKIP: 1508 (3.2%)
Others: 852 (1.8%)
MAJORITY: 6004 (12.6%)
Sitting MP: Alok Sharma (Con)
Prediction: Narrow Conservative hold
Sharma counfounded the pundits in 2010, overturning a Labour majority of more than 4,000. He could be undone if the LibDem vote really collapses and goes to Labour, so this is by no means a safe Tory seat now, despite a good sized majority. I expect Alok Sharma to squeak home.
6. Slough
2010 Result:
Conservative: 16361 (34.3%)
Labour: 21884 (45.8%)
Lib Dem: 6943 (14.5%)
Green: 542 (1.1%)
UKIP: 1517 (3.2%)
Christian: 495 (1%)
MAJORITY: 5523 (11.6%)
Sitting MP: Fiona MacTaggart (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
This seat was held by the Tory John Watts until 1997 but demographic changes have cemented Labour’s hold on it.
7. Windsor
2010 Result:
Conservative: 30172 (60.8%)
Labour: 4910 (9.9%)
Lib Dem: 11118 (22.4%)
BNP: 950 (1.9%)
Green: 628 (1.3%)
UKIP: 1612 (3.3%)
Independent: 198 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 19054 (38.4%)
Sitting MP: Adam Afriyie (Con)
Prediction: Definite Conservative hold
With 61% of the vote Adam Afriyie doesn’t have anything to worry about.
8. Wokingham
2010 Result:
Conservative: 28754 (52.7%)
Labour: 5516 (10.1%)
Lib Dem: 15262 (28%)
Green: 567 (1%)
UKIP: 1664 (3.1%)
Independent: 2340 (4.3%)
Others: 425 (0.8%)
MAJORITY: 13492 (24.7%)
Sitting MP: John Redwood (Con)
Prediction: Definite "Conservative* hold
Nothing to see here. Move along now.
Coming next: Kent