Sunday, 28 December 2014

#GE2015 Election Forecast (Dec 28th)

Now cast shown below, long range forecast at the bottom. From ElectionForecast.co.uk

The votes and seats totals shown elsewhere on this site are forecasts. They are predictions about what will happen on 7 May 2015. These forecasts are based on where we think the polls are today, combined with historical evidence about how support for parties evolves as elections approach. As such, they will have significant uncertainty until just before the election, and they are also difficult to evaluate.
This tab provides information on where we think the polls are today. We think this is useful for understanding what the current polls imply about the breakdown of seats, as well as for seeing what the current situation is likely to be in constituencies that have not been individually polled. As further constituency polls are released, we can then compare those polls to these seat "nowcasts" in order to assess whether our model is doing a good job of interpolating support for the parties in unpolled constituencies.

Here are the seats and votes that each party would receive, if the election were today, given what current and past polling tells us:

Party Lo Seats Hi Swing Lo Votes Hi Swing
Conservatives 242 250 258 -56 28.8% 29.2% 29.6% -6.9%
Labour 296 305 315 47 32.1% 32.5% 33.0% 3.5%
Liberal Democrats 17 20 23 -37 9.0% 9.3% 9.6% -13.7%
SNP 36 42 49 36 3.5% 3.7% 3.9% 2.1%
Plaid Cymru 1 3 5 0 0.6% 0.6% 0.7% 0.1%
Greens 1 1 2 0 5.6% 5.9% 6.3% 5.1%
UKIP 7 10 14 10 16.9% 17.2% 17.6% 14.1%
Other 1 1 1 0 1.3% 1.4% 1.5% -4.3%
To see our estimate of what the national and constituency polls imply about each seat currently:
Sortable table of current vote share for every party in every seat.
Sortable table of current probability of victory for every party in every seat.
At the level of regions, we estimate the following current levels of support for each party:
  Con Lab LD SNP PC GRN UKIP Oth
East Midlands 31 35 6 0 0 5 21 2
East of England 37 22 10 0 0 7 23 1
London 28 43 9 0 0 6 11 1
North East 20 49 7 0 0 6 18 1
North West 24 45 8 0 0 4 18 1
Scotland 11 32 6 44 0 4 2 1
South East 41 19 11 0 0 7 19 2
South West 35 19 16 0 0 9 19 1
Wales 18 39 7 0 13 3 18 2
West Midlands 30 35 7 0 0 5 21 2
Yorkshire and The Humber 22 41 7 0 0 6 21 2

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THIS IS THE LONG RANGE FORECAST FOR MAY 7TH 2015


most recently on 28 December 2014 at 09:07. To read commentary on the election using these forecasts, follow Election4castUK on Twitter. If you would like to give us feedback on this forecast, please email us at
Party Lo Seats Hi Swing
Labour 245 288 334 30
Conservatives 231 277 318 -29
SNP 23 35 46 29
Liberal Democrats 16 25 36 -32
DUP 6 8 10 0
UKIP 1 3 7 3
SDLP 1 3 3 0
Plaid Cymru 1 2 4 -1
Greens 1 1 2 0
Other 7 8 10 0
Seat-by-seat predictions based on the party predicted to be most likely to win each seat.

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