This is the third in a series of blogposts which will seek to predict
the outcome of every seat in the run-up to the next general election.
The notion of a universal swing in May 2015 can be totally discounted.
Each seat has to be treated on its merits. I’m starting off by trying to
analyse the counties I know best, but eventually will turn to ones I
know very little about at all. Feel free to add your comments and tell
me where you think I have got things wrong. I will return to update each
county analysis when and if I get new information.
Number of Seats: 7
Current Political Makeup: Conservative, 7
Prediction for 2015: Conservative 5, Labour 2
1. Bury St Edmunds
2010 Result:
Conservative: 27899 (47.5%)
Labour: 9776 (16.6%)
Lib Dem: 15519 (26.4%)
Green: 2521 (4.3%)
UKIP: 3003 (5.1%)
MAJORITY: 12380 (21.1%)
Sitting MP: David Ruffley (Con)
Prediction: Definite Conservative hold
The only time this seat has ever looked like drifting away from the Tories was in 1997 when David Ruffley only narrowly held on by 368 votes. Since then he has built up a more or less impregnable majority. He’s standing down but this is one to bet your mortgage on.
2. Central Suffolk & North Ipswich
2010 Result:
Conservative: 27125 (50.8%)
Labour: 8636 (16.2%)
Lib Dem: 13339 (25%)
Green: 1452 (2.7%)
UKIP: 2361 (4.4%)
Independent: 389 (0.7%)
Others: 118 (0.2%)
MAJORITY: 13786 (25.8%)
Sitting MP: Dr Dan Poulter (Con)
Prediction: Definite Conservative hold
Again, nothing less than a political earthquake would shift Dan Poulter here, partly due to a split opposition.
3. Ipswich
2010 Result:
Conservative: 18371 (39.1%)
Labour: 16292 (34.7%)
Lib Dem: 8556 (18.2%)
BNP: 1270 (2.7%)
Green: 775 (1.7%)
UKIP: 1365 (2.9%)
Christian: 149 (0.3%)
Independent: 93 (0.2%)
Others: 70 (0.1%)
MAJORITY: 2079 (4.4%)
Sitting MP: Ben Gummer (Con)
Prediction: Narrow Labour gain
Another of those bellweather seats that tends to swing with the political wind. The fact that UKIP haven’t been very popular here in the past begs the question as to whether they can eat into the Labour vote to allow Ben Gummer to squeak through. The fact that the LibDems have also scored strongly in the past tends to suggest that a slab of their 18% at the last election will go to Labour as well. Gummer has provied to be a popular, independent minded MP, but has only had one term to build up a personal vote. Will that be enough? I suspect not.
4. South Suffolk
2010 Result:
Conservative: 24550 (47.7%)
Labour: 7368 (14.3%)
Lib Dem: 15861 (30.8%)
UKIP: 3637 (7.1%)
MAJORITY: 8689 (16.9%)
Sitting MP: Tim Yeo (CON)
Prediction: Definite Conservative hold
If Tim Yeo wasn’t standing down I’d have reduced this to the status of probable Conservative hold, but with the LibDem vote splitting to Labour it’s difficult to see this as anything other than a bet your mortgage Tory hold.
5. Suffolk Coastal
2010 Result:
Conservative: 25475 (46.4%)
Labour: 8812 (16.1%)
Lib Dem: 16347 (29.8%)
Green: 1103 (2%)
UKIP: 3156 (5.7%)
MAJORITY: 9128 (16.6%)
Sitting MP: Therese Coffey (Con)
Prediction: Definite Conservative hold
A much safer seat than the figures show, mainly because of the high LibDem vote. Put your money on an increased majority for Therese Coffey.
6. Waveney
2010 Result:
Conservative: 20571 (40.2%)
Labour: 19802 (38.7%)
Lib Dem: 6811 (13.3%)
Green: 1167 (2.3%)
UKIP: 2684 (5.2%)
Independent: 106 (0.2%)
MAJORITY: 769 (1.5%)
Sitting MP: Peter Aldous (Con)
Prediction: Probable Labour gain
Peter Aldous has a wafer thin majority. Formerly Jim Prior’s seat it went Labour in 1997 and if UKIP take more votes off the Tories than Labour, it’s likely to return to Labour, given that they will be the beneficiary of any reduction in the LibDem vote. Aldous will still feel there is all to play for and a Conservative hold can’t be ruled out, but the odds are stacked against them.
7. West Suffolk
2010 Result:
Conservative: 24312 (50.6%)
Labour: 7089 (14.7%)
Lib Dem: 11262 (23.4%)
BNP: 1428 (3%)
UKIP: 3085 (6.4%)
Independent: 540 (1.1%)
Others: 373 (0.8%)
MAJORITY: 13050 (27.1%)
Sitting MP: Matthew Hancock (Con)
Prediction: Definite Conservative hold
Seeing as this has been a Conservative held seat since the 19th century, it’s another Conservative hold to be your mortgage on.
Coming next: Cambridgeshire
Current Political Makeup: Conservative, 7
Prediction for 2015: Conservative 5, Labour 2
1. Bury St Edmunds
2010 Result:
Conservative: 27899 (47.5%)
Labour: 9776 (16.6%)
Lib Dem: 15519 (26.4%)
Green: 2521 (4.3%)
UKIP: 3003 (5.1%)
MAJORITY: 12380 (21.1%)
Sitting MP: David Ruffley (Con)
Prediction: Definite Conservative hold
The only time this seat has ever looked like drifting away from the Tories was in 1997 when David Ruffley only narrowly held on by 368 votes. Since then he has built up a more or less impregnable majority. He’s standing down but this is one to bet your mortgage on.
2. Central Suffolk & North Ipswich
2010 Result:
Conservative: 27125 (50.8%)
Labour: 8636 (16.2%)
Lib Dem: 13339 (25%)
Green: 1452 (2.7%)
UKIP: 2361 (4.4%)
Independent: 389 (0.7%)
Others: 118 (0.2%)
MAJORITY: 13786 (25.8%)
Sitting MP: Dr Dan Poulter (Con)
Prediction: Definite Conservative hold
Again, nothing less than a political earthquake would shift Dan Poulter here, partly due to a split opposition.
3. Ipswich
2010 Result:
Conservative: 18371 (39.1%)
Labour: 16292 (34.7%)
Lib Dem: 8556 (18.2%)
BNP: 1270 (2.7%)
Green: 775 (1.7%)
UKIP: 1365 (2.9%)
Christian: 149 (0.3%)
Independent: 93 (0.2%)
Others: 70 (0.1%)
MAJORITY: 2079 (4.4%)
Sitting MP: Ben Gummer (Con)
Prediction: Narrow Labour gain
Another of those bellweather seats that tends to swing with the political wind. The fact that UKIP haven’t been very popular here in the past begs the question as to whether they can eat into the Labour vote to allow Ben Gummer to squeak through. The fact that the LibDems have also scored strongly in the past tends to suggest that a slab of their 18% at the last election will go to Labour as well. Gummer has provied to be a popular, independent minded MP, but has only had one term to build up a personal vote. Will that be enough? I suspect not.
4. South Suffolk
2010 Result:
Conservative: 24550 (47.7%)
Labour: 7368 (14.3%)
Lib Dem: 15861 (30.8%)
UKIP: 3637 (7.1%)
MAJORITY: 8689 (16.9%)
Sitting MP: Tim Yeo (CON)
Prediction: Definite Conservative hold
If Tim Yeo wasn’t standing down I’d have reduced this to the status of probable Conservative hold, but with the LibDem vote splitting to Labour it’s difficult to see this as anything other than a bet your mortgage Tory hold.
5. Suffolk Coastal
2010 Result:
Conservative: 25475 (46.4%)
Labour: 8812 (16.1%)
Lib Dem: 16347 (29.8%)
Green: 1103 (2%)
UKIP: 3156 (5.7%)
MAJORITY: 9128 (16.6%)
Sitting MP: Therese Coffey (Con)
Prediction: Definite Conservative hold
A much safer seat than the figures show, mainly because of the high LibDem vote. Put your money on an increased majority for Therese Coffey.
6. Waveney
2010 Result:
Conservative: 20571 (40.2%)
Labour: 19802 (38.7%)
Lib Dem: 6811 (13.3%)
Green: 1167 (2.3%)
UKIP: 2684 (5.2%)
Independent: 106 (0.2%)
MAJORITY: 769 (1.5%)
Sitting MP: Peter Aldous (Con)
Prediction: Probable Labour gain
Peter Aldous has a wafer thin majority. Formerly Jim Prior’s seat it went Labour in 1997 and if UKIP take more votes off the Tories than Labour, it’s likely to return to Labour, given that they will be the beneficiary of any reduction in the LibDem vote. Aldous will still feel there is all to play for and a Conservative hold can’t be ruled out, but the odds are stacked against them.
7. West Suffolk
2010 Result:
Conservative: 24312 (50.6%)
Labour: 7089 (14.7%)
Lib Dem: 11262 (23.4%)
BNP: 1428 (3%)
UKIP: 3085 (6.4%)
Independent: 540 (1.1%)
Others: 373 (0.8%)
MAJORITY: 13050 (27.1%)
Sitting MP: Matthew Hancock (Con)
Prediction: Definite Conservative hold
Seeing as this has been a Conservative held seat since the 19th century, it’s another Conservative hold to be your mortgage on.
Coming next: Cambridgeshire
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