#GE2015 Forecast (DEC 1st)

most recently on 01 December 2014 at 16:43. To read commentary on the election using these forecasts, follow Election4castUK on Twitter. If you would like to give us feedback on this forecast, please email us at feedback@electionforecast.co.uk

 

 he following tables focuses on potential seat gains and losses for each of the parties, including only those seats for which the probability of a change of control is estimated at over 10%. If the table is blank, there are currently no such seats.

Conservatives:	Gains	Losses
Labour:	Gains	Losses
Liberal Democrats:	Gains	Losses
SNP:	Gains	Losses
Plaid Cymru:	Gains	Losses
Greens:	Gains	Losses
UKIP:	Gains	Losses

The following table provides the individual seat predictions, aggregated up to England, Scotland and Wales. Please note that these may not exactly match the totals in the main forecast table, as they are based on the individual seat forecasts..

	Con	Lab	LD	SNP	PC	GRN	UKIP	Oth
England	277	227	25	0	0	1	2	1
Scotland	1	22	1	35	0	0	0	0
Wales	7	29	2	0	2	0	0	0

The following table provides the individual seat predictions (columns), aggregated by the party that won the seat at the 2010 general election (rows). Please note that these may not exactly match the totals in the main forecast table, as they are based on the individual seat forecasts..

	Con	Lab	LD	SNP	PC	GRN	UKIP	Oth
2010 Con	275	29	0	0	0	0	2	0
2010 Lab	0	239	0	19	0	0	0	0
2010 LD	10	9	28	10	0	0	0	0
2010 SNP	0	0	0	6	0	0	0	0
2010 PC	0	1	0	0	2	0	0	0
2010 GRN	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0
2010 UKIP	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
2010 Oth	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1

 

Party	Lo	Seats	Hi	Swing
Conservatives	240	280	318	-26
Labour	242	282	325	24
Liberal Democrats	19	28	39	-29
SNP	23	34	45	28
Plaid Cymru	1	3	5	0
Greens	0	1	2	0
UKIP	1	3	7	3
Other	1	1	1	0