Monday, 15 December 2014


Labour had been building up a little steam in the prediction recently, but they've slipped back. This is primarily because of a new Scotland poll that increases the SNP's chances of gaining seats from Labour in the model.

This shaves points off both Labour Majority and a Lib/Lab Coalition chances. However, what it doesn't yet do is produce a significant chance of SNP being part of a coalition. Part of this is because the model does revert the SNP's polling boost a bit, under the revert to mean assumption applied to all polling.

While it's theoretically possible for the SNP to form coalition with Labour, at the moment the prediction model doesn't produce a Labour/SNP coalition in any simulation run. For the simple reason that the gap where Labour get too few seats to form coalition with the Lib Dems, but enough seats to form coalition with SNP, is just too small. That doesn't mean that they wouldn't end up in a coalition however, Labour may well want SNP support to provide a clearer and sustainable majority through parliament than the bare majority they may achieve with Lib Dems alone.  <<<SOURCE

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