Tuesday, 2 December 2014

UK ELECT says - Hung Parliament - Labour Short By 41

UK-Elect General Election Forecast, December 1st 2014. 
Hung Parliament - Labour Short By 41
This is the latest UK-Elect forecast for the 2015 UK General Election, created on December 1st 2014. Further forecasts will be made at frequent intervals before the next UK General Election. The continuing effect of the dramatic growth in SNP support since the Independence Referendum is illustrated in this forecast - with the 48 seats achieved by the SNP sufficient to deprive Labour of an effective governing majority. This forecast was done by an experimental UK-Elect method based on a blend of the traditional Uniform National Swing and proportional loss forecasting techniques, but also taking account of recent local constituency opinion polls and byelections, and using multiple iterations to achieve the correct target percentages.
The GB percentages used for this forecast were Lab 32%, Con 32%, UKIP 16%, Lib Dem 8%, Green 6%. For Scotland the percentages used were SNP 42%, Lab 26%, Con 16%, Lib Dem 6%, UKIP 4%, Green 4%. Other parties votes were not specifically set.

(If you prefer to forecast using alternative forecasting methods, your own percentages, the current opinion polls, using tactical voting, or even using different electoral systems, browse the UK-Elect on-line shop )
Party Seats Change
Labour 284 +26
Conservative 274 -29
SNP 48 +42
Liberal Democrat 19 -38
UKIP 1 -1
DUP 8 -
Sinn Fein 5 -
SDLP 3 -
Green 2 +1
Plaid Cymru 3 -
Others 3 -1
Labour Short By 41 - Hung Parliament

UK-Elect Election Forecast Maps
Forecast for South West England Forecast for Scotland
Forecast for Wales Forecast for UK
Forecast for London Forecast Gains
Click on image to enlarge
Notes: The forecast base was the 2010 General Election, although gains are compared with the current situation (at December 1st). An experimental UK-Elect forecasting method based on a blend of the Uniform National Swing and Proportional Loss methods was used, with local opinion polls and by-election data, and also possible tactical voting, taken into account during the calculations. Multiple iterations were used to achieve the correct target percentages. Because of the experimental nature of the method used the confidence level in this forecast should be regarded as lower than normal.

Results from Northern Ireland are based on those of the last election and included for completeness only.
Suggestions and Corrections: UK election forecasts are sometimes very controversial. To notify us of any suggested change to this one, or to let us know of any part of it that is just dead wrong, please email us on support@ukelect.co.uk.

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