Friday, 26 December 2014

IAIN DALES General Election Predictions 4: Cambridgeshire

Originally post here >>>>>>>>>

This is the fourth in a series of blogposts (scroll down for the others) which will seek to predict the outcome of every seat in the run-up to the next general election. The notion of a universal swing in May 2015 can be totally discounted. Each seat has to be treated on its merits. I’m starting off by trying to analyse the counties I know best, but eventually will turn to ones I know very little about at all. Feel free to add your comments and tell me where you think I have got things wrong. I will return to update each county analysis when and if I get new information.
Seats: 7
Current Political Makeup: Con 6, LibDem 1
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Con 6, Labour 1
1. Cambridge
2010 Result:
Conservative: 12829 (25.6%)
Labour: 12174 (24.3%)
Lib Dem: 19621 (39.1%)
Green: 3804 (7.6%)
UKIP: 1195 (2.4%)
Independent: 145 (0.3%)
Others: 362 (0.7%)
MAJORITY: 6792 (13.5%)
Sitting MP: Julian Huppert (LibDem)
Prediction: Narrow Labour gain
A genuine three way marginal, this seat has been held by all three parties in recent memory. It went LibDem in 2005. If you look at the size of the LibDem majority here, Julian Huppert ought to be considered very safe, but this is a seat which swings with the wind, and if the wind is blowing towards Labour you can see it returning to them. It obviously has a high student vote and this may determine the outcome. However Huppert has been a strong performer both locally in Parliament and if anyone can hold this seat for the LibDems, he can. But bearing in mind the LibDems’ calamitous results in May I’ve now changed my mind and think Labour will win here.
2. Huntingdon
2010 Result:
Conservative: 26516 (48.9%)
Labour: 5982 (11%)
Lib Dem: 15697 (28.9%)
Green: 652 (1.2%)
UKIP: 3258 (6%)
Independent: 1432 (2.6%)
Others: 729 (1.3%)
MAJORITY: 10819 (19.9%)
Sitting MP: Jonathan Djanogly
Prediction: Definite Conservative hold
No words necessary.
3. North East Cambridgeshire
2010 Result:
Conservative: 26862 (51.6%)
Labour: 9274 (17.8%)
Lib Dem: 10437 (20%)
BNP: 1747 (3.4%)
UKIP: 2791 (5.4%)
English Dem: 387 (0.7%)
Independent: 566 (1.1%)
MAJORITY: 16425 (31.5%)
Sitting MP: Stephen Barclay (Con)
Prediction: Definite Conservative hold
One of the safest of safe Conservative seats.
4. North West Cambridgeshire
2010 Result:
Conservative: 29425 (50.5%)
Labour: 9877 (16.9%)
Lib Dem: 12748 (21.9%)
UKIP: 4826 (8.3%)
English Dem: 1407 (2.4%)
MAJORITY: 16677 (28.6%)
Sitting MP: Shailesh Vara (Con)
Prediction: Definite Conservative hold
Even safer than the previous one.
5. Peterborough
2010 Result:
Conservative: 18133 (40.4%)
Labour: 13272 (29.5%)
Lib Dem: 8816 (19.6%)
Green: 523 (1.2%)
UKIP: 3007 (6.7%)
English Dem: 770 (1.7%)
Independent: 406 (0.9%)
MAJORITY: 4861 (10.8%)
Sitting MP: Stewart Jackson (Con)
Prediction: Narrow Conservative hold
This is Labour’s second biggest hope in Cambridgeshire and it is a seat which was held by Labour between 1997 and 2005 in the person of the notorious Helen Brinton. Jackson has had two terms to establish himself. Having said that the pro Tory swing in 2010 was way below the national average, and this has become quite an ethnically diverse seat. As in many other seats, this may come down to where the LibDem vote shakes down and how much UKIP eat into the two main party votes.
6. South Cambridgeshire
2010 Result:
Conservative: 27995 (47.4%)
Labour: 6024 (10.2%)
Lib Dem: 20157 (34.1%)
Green: 1039 (1.8%)
UKIP: 1873 (3.2%)
Independent: 1968 (3.3%)
MAJORITY: 7838 (13.3%)
Sitting MP: Andrew Lansley (Con)
Prediction: Increased Conservative majority
Andrew Lansley may be standing down but the Tory majority here is likely to increase due to the massive LibDem vote shrinking, presumably to Labour.
7. South East Cambridgeshire
2010 Result:
Conservative: 27629 (48%)
Labour: 4380 (7.6%)
Lib Dem: 21683 (37.6%)
Green: 766 (1.3%)
UKIP: 2138 (3.7%)
Independent: 517 (0.9%)
Others: 489 (0.8%)
MAJORITY: 5946 (10.3%)
Sitting MP: James Paice (Con)
Prediction: Increased Conservative majority
James Paice is standing down but as in the previous seat, the Tory majority is likely to increase here due to the split opposition vote.
Coming next: Hertfordshire

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