Wednesday, 10 December 2014

The Hustings #GE2015 Forecast (Dec 9th)

Labour 299
Conservatives 279
SNP 26
LD 19
PC 4
Greens 1

With six months to go, GE2015 is shaping up to be the most exciting, and difficult to call, since the mid 70s. This prediction has Labour out in front, but still well short of an overall majority.
Labour is a net gainer on 2010; losing to the SNP, UKIP and the Greens yet outweighing this with returning Labour voters who ventured to the LibDems at the last election. The Conservatives are bleeding to UKIP amongst certain demographic tranches, allowing Labour to capture 39 of their current seats (mostly urban, see the Gains tab below). The Lib Dems are jettisoning their various tribes of support into a rainbow of parties across the UK.
As Mike Smithson says, the GE is really 650 individual fights, so from now until May will be looking in greater depth at seat-specific factors.
This analysis so far a) excludes Northern Ireland, which is an oversight soon to be rectified, b) is yet to add an Incumbency weighting c) does not account for all parties standing in all constituencies – the PPC stuation should become clearer in 2015.
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