Scotland – Fife
Seats: 6
Current Political Makeup: Lab 5, LibDem 1
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Lab 3, LibDem 1, SNP 2
18. Ochil & South Perthshire
2010 Result:
Conservative: 10342 (20.5%)
Labour: 19131 (37.9%)
Lib Dem: 5754 (11.4%)
SNP: 13944 (27.6%)
Green: 609 (1.2%)
UKIP: 689 (1.4%)
MAJORITY: 5187 (10.3%)
Sitting MP: Gordon Banks (Lab)
Prediction: SNP gain
If the SNP is to break through, then this is a must-win seat for them.
19. North East Fife
2010 Result:
Conservative: 8715 (21.8%)
Labour: 6869 (17.1%)
Lib Dem: 17763 (44.3%)
SNP: 5685 (14.2%)
UKIP: 1032 (2.6%)
MAJORITY: 9048 (22.6%)
Sitting MP: Sir Menzies Campbell (LibDem)
Prediction: LibDem hold
Last year I reckoned this seat would definitely remain LibDem. Now I am not so sure. There has been a movement from the LibDems to the Tories in Scotland. At the moment it wouldn’t be enough to gift the Tories the seat, but they will be putting in a lot of effort here. The big question is if the SNP can also capitalise on ex LibDem voters here. At the moment I’’m keeping this as a LibDem hold but this is one to watch before the election.
20. Glenrothes
2010 Result:
Conservative: 2922 (7.2%)
Labour: 25247 (62.3%)
Lib Dem: 3108 (7.7%)
SNP: 8799 (21.7%)
UKIP: 425 (1%)
MAJORITY: 16448 (40.6%)
Sitting MP: Lindsay Roy (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Safe seat.
21. Kirkcaldy & Cowdenbeath
2010 Result:
Conservative: 4258 (9.3%)
Labour: 29559 (64.5%)
Lib Dem: 4269 (9.3%)
SNP: 6550 (14.3%)
UKIP: 760 (1.7%)
Independent: 184 (0.4%)
Others: 222 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 23009 (50.2%)
Sitting MP: Gordon Brown (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Safe seat.
22. Dunfermline West & Fife
2010 Result:
Conservative: 3305 (6.8%)
Labour: 22639 (46.3%)
Lib Dem: 17169 (35.1%)
SNP: 5201 (10.6%)
UKIP: 633 (1.3%)
MAJORITY: 5470 (11.2%)
Sitting MP: Thomas Docherty (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Not a massive majority, but with the LibDems in second place it’s hard to believe that there can be any other outcome here other than a Labour hold.
23. Falkirk
2010 Result:
Conservative: 5698 (11.2%)
Labour: 23207 (45.7%)
Lib Dem: 5225 (10.3%)
SNP: 15364 (30.3%)
UKIP: 1283 (2.5%)
MAJORITY: 7843 (15.4%)
Sitting MP: Eric Joyce (Ind, formerly Lab)
Prediction: SNP gain
Eric Joyce’s chickens may well come home to roost for Labour. Even thought there is a big Labour majority here, the SNP are in a good second place and I would expect the Labout vote to go down to below 35%, allowing the SNP to cut through.
Seats: 9
Current Political Makeup: Lab 8, LibDem 1
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Labour 6, SNP 3
34. Linlithgow & Falkirk
2010 Result:
Conservative: 6146 (11.9%)
Labour: 25634 (49.8%)
Lib Dem: 6589 (12.8%)
SNP: 13081 (25.4%)
MAJORITY: 12553 (24.4%)
Sitting MP: Michael Connarty (Lab)
Prediction: SNP gain
Should be safe, but isn’t…
35. Livingston
2010 Result:
Conservative: 5158 (10.8%)
Labour: 23215 (48.5%)
Lib Dem: 5316 (11.1%)
SNP: 12424 (25.9%)
BNP: 960 (2%)
UKIP: 443 (0.9%)
Independent: 149 (0.3%)
Others: 242 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 10791 (22.5%)
Sitting MP: Graeme Morrice (Lab)
Prediction: SNP gain
36. Edinburgh West
2010 Result:
Conservative: 10767 (23.2%)
Labour: 12881 (27.7%)
Lib Dem: 16684 (35.9%)
SNP: 6115 (13.2%)
MAJORITY: 3803 (8.2%)
Sitting MP: Michael Crockart (LibDem)
Prediction: SNP gain
Frankly this could go anywhere. I’m not sure the SNP can spring from fourth to first place, but it’s perfectly possible to se a scenario where they could. It really depends how the LibDem cookie crumbles, and crumble it surely will. I had predicted a LibDem hold here, but now I am not so sure. Their majority went down by 10,000 last time and they’be been obliterated in recent elections in Edinburgh.
37. Edinburgh South West
2010 Result:
Conservative: 11026 (24.3%)
Labour: 19473 (42.8%)
Lib Dem: 8194 (18%)
SNP: 5530 (12.2%)
Green: 872 (1.9%)
Others: 367 (0.8%)
MAJORITY: 8447 (18.6%)
Sitting MP: Alistair Darling (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Alistair Darling may be retiring, but it’s difficult to see a result here that isn’t a Labour win.
38. Edinburgh North & Leith
2010 Result:
Conservative: 7079 (14.9%)
Labour: 17740 (37.5%)
Lib Dem: 16016 (33.8%)
SNP: 4568 (9.6%)
Green: 1062 (2.2%)
Liberal: 389 (0.8%)
TUSC: 233 (0.5%)
Independent: 128 (0.3%)
Others: 141 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 1724 (3.6%)
Sitting MP: Mark Lazarowicz (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
This seat has a small majority but because it is the LibDems who are the challengers, I am predicting an increased Labour majority here.
39. Edinburgh East
2010 Result:
Conservative: 4358 (10.9%)
Labour: 17314 (43.4%)
Lib Dem: 7751 (19.4%)
SNP: 8133 (20.4%)
Green: 2035 (5.1%)
TUSC: 274 (0.7%)
MAJORITY: 9181 (23%)
Sitting MP: Sheila Gilmore (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Safe seat.
40. Edinburgh South
2010 Result:
Conservative: 9452 (21.6%)
Labour: 15215 (34.7%)
Lib Dem: 14899 (34%)
SNP: 3354 (7.7%)
Green: 881 (2%)
MAJORITY: 316 (0.7%)
Sitting MP: Ian Murray (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
The LibDems came so close to winning this seat in 2010. If much of their 2010 vote transfers to the Conservatives, as it could do, this could be a surprise Tory gain in May. Don’t bank on it through. I predict Ian Murray will hold on.
41. Midlothian
2010 Result:
Conservative: 4661 (11.9%)
Labour: 18449 (47%)
Lib Dem: 6711 (17.1%)
SNP: 8100 (20.6%)
Green: 595 (1.5%)
UKIP: 364 (0.9%)
TUSC: 166 (0.4%)
Independent: 196 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 10349 (26.4%)
Sitting MP: David Hamilton (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Try as the SNP might, I just don’t see them overturning this size of majority. Elsewhere maybe, but not in this seat.
42. East Lothian
2010 Result:
Conservative: 9661 (19.7%)
Labour: 21919 (44.6%)
Lib Dem: 8288 (16.9%)
SNP: 7883 (16%)
Green: 862 (1.8%)
UKIP: 548 (1.1%)
MAJORITY: 12258 (24.9%)
Sitting MP: Fiona O’Donnell (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Safe seat.
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