Monday 12 January 2015

IAIN DALES General Election Predictions: Nottinghamshire

Originally posted here >>> http://www.iaindale.com/

Nottinghamshire
Seats: 11
Current Political Makeup: Con 4, Lab 7
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Con 2, Lab 9
1. Ashfield
2010 Result:
Conservative: 10698 (22.2%)
Labour: 16239 (33.7%)
Lib Dem: 16047 (33.3%)
BNP: 2781 (5.8%)
UKIP: 933 (1.9%)
English Dem: 1102 (2.3%)
Independent: 396 (0.8%)
MAJORITY: 192 (0.4%)
Sitting MP: Gloria de Piero (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Quite how the LibDems nearly won this seat in 2010 I do not know. They went from 14% of the vote to 33%. They are fielding the same candidate this time. However, even if they throw the kitchen sink at Gloria de Piero I don’t think it will be enough. I expect her majority to increase by several thousand.
2. Bassetlaw
2010 Result:
Conservative: 16803 (33.9%)
Labour: 25018 (50.5%)
Lib Dem: 5570 (11.2%)
UKIP: 1779 (3.6%)
Independent: 407 (0.8%)
MAJORITY: 8215 (16.6%)
Sitting MP: John Mann )Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Safe seat.
3. Broxtowe
2010 Result:
Conservative: 20585 (39%)
Labour: 20196 (38.3%)
Lib Dem: 8907 (16.9%)
BNP: 1422 (2.7%)
Green: 423 (0.8%)
UKIP: 1194 (2.3%)
MAJORITY: 389 (0.7%)
Sitting MP: Anna Soubry (Con)
Prediction: Labour gain
Another one of those seats where Labour has to win if Ed Miliband has any hope of gaining any sort power. Anna Soubry has been a star of the 2010-15 Parliament and it will be sad to see her lose.
4. Gedling
2010 Result:
Conservative: 17962 (37.3%)
Labour: 19821 (41.1%)
Lib Dem: 7350 (15.3%)
BNP: 1598 (3.3%)
UKIP: 1459 (3%)
MAJORITY: 1859 (3.9%)
Sitting MP: Vernon Coaker (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Ever since Labour won the seat from Andrew Mitchell in 1997 their hold on it has been somewhat precarious. Coaker will win again, but he will still have a few butterflies at the count.
5. Mansfield
2010 Result:
Conservative: 12741 (26.3%)
Labour: 18753 (38.7%)
Lib Dem: 7469 (15.4%)
BNP: 2108 (4.4%)
UKIP: 2985 (6.2%)
Others: 4339 (9%)
MAJORITY: 6012 (12.4%)
Sitting MP: Sir Alan Meale (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Labour are said to be nervous about UKIP eating into their vote here, but it is difficult to think this seat could return anything other than a Labour MP.
6. Newark
2010 Result:
Conservative: 27590 (53.9%)
Labour: 11438 (22.3%)
Lib Dem: 10246 (20%)
UKIP: 1954 (3.8%)
MAJORITY: 16152 (31.5%)
Sitting MP: Robert Jenrick (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold
Safe seat.
7. Nottingham East
2010 Result:
Conservative: 7846 (23.7%)
Labour: 15022 (45.4%)
Lib Dem: 8053 (24.3%)
Green: 928 (2.8%)
UKIP: 1138 (3.4%)
Christian: 125 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 6969 (21%)
Sitting MP: Chris Leslie (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Chris Leslie will be a big player in Labour’s future whatever the result of the next election. He will win again here.
8. Nottingham North
2010 Result:
Conservative: 8508 (24.8%)
Labour: 16646 (48.6%)
Lib Dem: 5849 (17.1%)
BNP: 1944 (5.7%)
UKIP: 1338 (3.9%)
MAJORITY: 8138 (23.7%)
Sitting MP: Graham Allen (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Safe seat.
9. Nottingham South
2010 Result:
Conservative: 13437 (32.9%)
Labour: 15209 (37.3%)
Lib Dem: 9406 (23.1%)
BNP: 1140 (2.8%)
Green: 630 (1.5%)
UKIP: 967 (2.4%)
MAJORITY: 1772 (4.3%)
Sitting MP: Lilian Greenwood (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Much will depend here on how the LibDem vote splinters. There is a strong Tory vote here and it should be remembered that until 1992 this was a Tory seat. The LibDem vote rose last time because of the student vote.
10. Rushcliffe
2010 Result:
Conservative: 27470 (51.2%)
Labour: 11128 (20.7%)
Lib Dem: 11659 (21.7%)
Green: 1251 (2.3%)
UKIP: 2179 (4.1%)
MAJORITY: 15811 (29.5%)
Sitting MP: Kenneth Clarke (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold
Safe seat.
11. Sherwood
2010 Result:
Conservative: 19211 (39.2%)
Labour: 18997 (38.8%)
Lib Dem: 7283 (14.9%)
BNP: 1754 (3.6%)
UKIP: 1490 (3%)
Independent: 219 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 214 (0.4%)
Sitting MP: Mark Spencer (Con)
Prediction: Labour gain
Mark Spencer did brilliantly to regain a seat the Tories last won in 1987 but it’s highly doubtful he can hang on to it in 2015.

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