Monday 12 January 2015

IAIN DALES General Election Predictions: Cumbria

Originally posted here >>> http://www.iaindale.com/

Cumbria
Seats: 6
Current Political Makeup: Con 2, Lab 3, LibDem 1
Predicted Political Makeup after May 7: Con 1, Lab 4, LibDem 1
1. Barrow and Furness
2010 Result:
Conservative: 16018 (36.3%)
Labour: 21226 (48.1%)
Lib Dem: 4424 (10%)
BNP: 840 (1.9%)
Green: 530 (1.2%)
UKIP: 841 (1.9%)
Independent: 245 (0.6%)
MAJORITY: 5208 (11.8%)
Sitting MP: John Woodcock (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Safe seat.
2. Carlisle
2010 Result:
Conservative: 16589 (39.3%)
Labour: 15736 (37.3%)
Lib Dem: 6567 (15.6%)
BNP: 1086 (2.6%)
Green: 614 (1.5%)
UKIP: 969 (2.3%)
TUSC: 376 (0.9%)
Others: 263 (0.6%)
MAJORITY: 853 (2%)
Siting MP: John Stevenson (Con)
Prediction: Labour gain
Local election results here have been mixed, with UKIP biting into the Labour vote more than the Tory vote. But I’d still expect Labour to win here, however narrowly.
3. Copeland
2010 Result:
Conservative: 15866 (37.1%)
Labour: 19699 (46%)
Lib Dem: 4365 (10.2%)
BNP: 1474 (3.4%)
Green: 389 (0.9%)
UKIP: 994 (2.3%)
MAJORITY: 3833 (9%)
Sitting MP: Jamie Reed (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
By rights this seat should be far more marginal than it has proved to be.
4. Penrith & the Border
2010 Result:
Conservative: 24071 (53.4%)
Labour: 5834 (12.9%)
Lib Dem: 12830 (28.5%)
BNP: 1093 (2.4%)
UKIP: 1259 (2.8%)
MAJORITY: 11241 (24.9%)
Sitting MP: Rory Stewart (Con)
Prediction: Conservative hold
Safe seat.
5. Westmorland & Lonsdale
2010 Result:
Conservative: 18632 (36.2%)
Labour: 1158 (2.2%)
Lib Dem: 30896 (60%)
UKIP: 801 (1.6%)
MAJORITY: 12264 (23.8%)
Sitting MP: Tim Farron (LibDem)
Prediction: LibDem hold
How this went seat went LibDem in the first place is testament to Tim Farron’s campaigning ability. He’s one of the few LibDems certain to be re-elected.
6. Workington
2010 Result:
Conservative: 13290 (33.9%)
Labour: 17865 (45.5%)
Lib Dem: 5318 (13.5%)
BNP: 1496 (3.8%)
UKIP: 876 (2.2%)
English Dem: 414 (1.1%)
MAJORITY: 4575 (11.7%)
Sitting MP: Tony Cunningham (Lab)
Prediction: Labour hold
Relatively safe Labour seat.

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