Saturday, 1 November 2014

#GE2015 Forecast update: 31 October 2014

Forecast b 141031
Labour are now at their lowest in the polls since 2010. They’ve dropped to 33% in our polling average this week, from 34% last week.
The story of the last year has been that while Labour have fallen in the polls pretty much in line with historical trends, the Conservatives have failed to make up ground as our model expected. That’s true again this week, with the Conservatives on 32%, unchanged from last week. The Lib Dems are down a point to 7%, while UKIP stay on 16%.
So what does that mean for our forecast? Labour’s fall in the polls shifts it a little towards the Tories, who now have a 55% chance of winning the most seats (up from 51% last week). Labour’s chances of being the largest party are down from 49% to 45%.
The Tories chances of securing a majority are up to 27%, while the likelihood of a Labour majority is down to 19% – the lowest since May.
With the two largest parties forecast separated by just a point and only polling 65% between them, a hung parliament remains slightly more likely than not. Our model now says there’s a 54% chance of neither party winning a majority (down a touch from 55% last week).
In our central forecast, the Tories win 34.6% of the vote to Labour’s 30.7%, with UKIP on 13.9% and the Lib Dems on 10.3%. That would leave the Tories on 302 seats, ahead of Labour on 291 but 24 short of a majority.

Date of forecast: 31 October 2014
Days till the election: 188
Inputted current average poll shares
Con: 32%
Lab: 33%
LD: 7%
Others (inc. UKIP): 28%
– UKIP: 16%
Forecast Election Day Shares (with 95% Prediction Intervals)
Con: 34.6% (±6.9, i.e. 28% – 41%)
Lab: 30.7% (±5.2, i.e. 26% – 36%)
LD: 10.3% (±7.1, i.e. 3% – 17%)
Implied point estimate shares for:
– Others (inc. UKIP): 24.4%
– UKIP: 13.9%
Forecast Election Day Seats (with approximate 95% Prediction Intervals)
Con: 302 (227 – 386)
Lab: 291 (211 – 361)
LD: 26 (21 – 32)
(Prediction intervals assume LD & others shares at central forecast, Con & Lab shares vary as per prediction intervals)
Central forecast: Con largest party, but short of a majority by 24
Approximate probabilities of key outcomes
Con largest: 55%
… with a majority: 27%
Lab largest: 45%
… with a majority: 19%
Hung Parliament: 54%
… with Con largest: 28%
… with Lab largest: 26%
(probabilities may not sum due to rounding)

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