Electoral Calculus #GE2015 Forecast

Current Prediction: Labour majority 42

Party	2010 Votes	2010 Seats	Pred Votes	Pred Seats
CON	36.97%	307	31.22%	242
LAB	29.66%	258	35.98%	346
LIB	23.56%	57	8.01%	18
UKIP	3.17%	0	15.02%	0
NAT	2.26%	9	3.37%	25
MIN	4.37%	19	6.40%	19

Prediction based on opinion polls from 29 Aug 14 to 25 Sep 14, sampling 10,069 people.

Probability of possible outcomes

Conservative majority	7%
Labour majority	63%
Con/Lib coalition	3%
Lab/Lib coalition	11%
Lib choice of coalition	0%
No overall control	17%

The future is never certain. But using our advanced modelling techniques, we can estimate the probability of the various possible outcomes at the next general election.

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