Tuesday, 14 October 2014

2015 UK Parliamentary Election Forecast (14th OCT

This report was generated on 14 October 2014 at 21:33. To read commentary on the election using these forecasts, follow Election4castUK on Twitter. If you would like to give us feedback on this forecast, please email us at feedback@electionforecast.co.uk

Our current prediction is that there will be no overall majority, but that the Conservatives will be the largest party with 294 seats. However, based on the historical relationships between the sources of information we are using in our forecast and the outcome of UK elections, we know there is substantial uncertainty in our forecast. The sidebar at right includes predictive probabilities of the key outcomes of the election, as well as vote and seat forecasts for each party with 90% uncertainty intervals.
  • And now the party forecast...
    • Conservatives. Holding steady over the past fortnight. Seat loss probable. Majority unlikely. Plurality possible.
    • Labour. Fading slightly. Seat gain very likely. Majority very unlikely. Plurality possible.
    • Liberal Democrats. Holding steady. Seat loss almost certain.
    • SNP. Holding steady. Seat gain almost certain.
    • Plaid Cymru. Holding steady. Seat loss probable.
    • Greens. Holding steady. Seat loss possible.
    • UKIP. Rising slightly. Seat gain almost certain.

Party Lo Seats Hi Swing
Conservatives 249 294 340 -12
Labour 246 293 334 35
Liberal Democrats 14 23 36 -34
SNP 10 17 25 11
Plaid Cymru 0 2 4 -1
Greens 0 0 1 -1
UKIP 1 2 5 2
Other 1 1 3 0
Seat-by-seat predictions based on the party predicted to be most likely to win each seat.

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