Where will the independent voter cast their vote?

In the local council elections, one of the reasons they say that you can't do good notional forecasting is because of the number of independent candidates.

Below is an example from the 2015 General Election where the same seat (Morley & Outwood) was also having council elections and where as the Labour candidates polled over 3,200 votes more than the Conservative council candidates when it came to the General Election vote, held at exactly the same time, the Conservative candidate came out on top by 400 votes.

Now as many polls suggest that the Conservatives are doing very well in Wales, which had a high proportion of independent wins. Just where will the independent vote fall?

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Morley & Outwood 

Parliamentary result
,
Conservative 18,766
Labour (Ed Balls) 18,354
UKIP 7,951
LibDems 1,426
Greens 1,264
Yorkshire First 479

Result adding the council figures together

Labour 16,294
Conservatives 13,033
UKIP 8,709
Morley Independents 6,794
Lib Dems 1,710
Greens 1,123 (3/5)
TUSC 314 (3/5)

Morley & Outwood is made up of three districts under the Leeds Council and two under Wakefield

Results below

Leeds Council

This electoral area : Ardsley and Robin Hood

Electorate : 17476

Surname	Forename	Votes	Elected	Description
Atkin	Timothy Adam	3582		The Conservative Party Candidate
Bishop-Rowe	Victoria	373		Liberal Democrats
Daniel	David	2238		UK Independence Party (UKIP)
Dunn	Jack	4301	ELECTED	Labour Party
Omidiran	Jude	399		Green Party

This electoral area : Morley North

Electorate : 17743

Surname	Forename	Votes	Elected	Description
Andrews	Peter Richard	263		Liberal Democrats
Cussons	Karen	78		Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition
Fenney	Deborah	354		Green Party
Gettings	Bob	4271	ELECTED	Morley Borough Independents
Sewards	Mark James	2505		Labour Party
Stead	Samuel	1487		UK Independence Party (UKIP)
Tempest	Sophie Ann	2496		The Conservative Party Candidate

This electoral area : Morley South

Electorate : 16706

Surname	Forename	Votes	Elected	Description
Cussons	Neil	107		Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition
Dawson	Neil	3071	ELECTED	Labour and Co-operative Party
Dove	Lindon	1708		UK Independence Party (UKIP)
Hawker	Claire	370		Green Party
Kidger	Wyn	2523		Morley Borough Independents
MacArthur	John Durno	203		Liberal Democrats
Tempest	Kathleen Ann	2096		The Conservative Party Candidate

Wakefield Council

Labour hold
Stanley and Outwood East
Name	Party	Votes	%
BYROM, Dave	Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition	129	1.6
DODD, Margaret	Liberal Democrats	427	5.4
HUDSON, Clive (Elected)	Labour Party	3351	42.3
JOHNSTON, James Lee	UK Independence Party (UKIP)	1651	20.9
MALYK, Rachel Anne	The Conservative Party Candidate	2358	29.8
	Majority	993	12.5
	Spoiled Votes	26
	% turnout	62.7
	Total Votes	7,916

Labour gain
Wrenthorpe and Outwood West
Name	Party	Votes	%
ARTHUR, David	Liberal Democrats	444	5.8
KEITH, Charlie (Elected)	Labour Party	3066	39.7
MOORHOUSE, Brian	UK Independence Party (UKIP)	1706	22.1
RYAN, Dean Antony	The Conservative Party Candidate	2501	32.4
	Majority	565	7.3
	Spoiled Votes	30
	% turnout	64.4
	Total Votes	7,717