#GE2015 Forecast (NOV 23rd)

most recently on 23 November 2014 at 09:13. To read commentary on the election using these forecasts, follow Election4castUK on Twitter. If you would like to give us feedback on this forecast, please email us at feedback@electionforecast.co.uk

• And now the party forecast...
  • Conservatives. Holding steady over the past fortnight. Seat loss probable. Majority very unlikely. Plurality possible.
  • Labour. Holding steady. Seat gain very likely. Majority very unlikely. Plurality possible.
  • Liberal Democrats. Holding steady. Seat loss almost certain.
  • SNP. Holding steady. Seat gain almost certain.
  • Plaid Cymru. Holding steady. Seat loss probable.
  • Greens. Holding steady. Seat loss unlikely.
  • UKIP. Holding steady. Seat gain almost certain.
  • The following tables focuses on potential seat gains and losses for each of the parties, including only those seats for which the probability of a change of control is estimated at over 10%. If the table is blank, there are currently no such seats.
    

    Conservatives:	Gains	Losses
    Labour:	Gains	Losses
    Liberal Democrats:	Gains	Losses
    SNP:	Gains	Losses
    Plaid Cymru:	Gains	Losses
    Greens:	Gains	Losses
    UKIP:	Gains	Losses

    The following table provides the individual seat predictions, aggregated up to England, Scotland and Wales. Please note that these may not exactly match the totals in the main forecast table, as they are based on the individual seat forecasts..
    

    	Con	Lab	LD	SNP	PC	GRN	UKIP	Oth
    England	279	228	21	0	0	1	3	1
    Scotland	3	21	1	34	0	0	0	0
    Wales	8	30	1	0	1	0	0	0

    The following table provides the individual seat predictions (columns), aggregated by the party that won the seat at the 2010 general election (rows). Please note that these may not exactly match the totals in the main forecast table, as they are based on the individual seat forecasts..
    

    	Con	Lab	LD	SNP	PC	GRN	UKIP	Oth
    2010 Con	273	30	0	0	0	0	3	0
    2010 Lab	1	235	0	22	0	0	0	0
    2010 LD	16	12	23	6	0	0	0	0
    2010 SNP	0	0	0	6	0	0	0	0
    2010 PC	0	2	0	0	1	0	0	0
    2010 GRN	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0
    2010 UKIP	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
    2010 Oth	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1

     

 

Party	Lo	Seats	Hi	Swing
Conservatives	242	286	328	-20
Labour	241	281	324	23
Liberal Democrats	14	24	36	-33
SNP	23	33	43	27
Plaid Cymru	1	2	4	-1
Greens	0	1	2	0
UKIP	1	4	8	4
Other	1	1	1	0