2015 UK Parliamentary Election Forecast (19th OCT)

This report was generated on 19 October 2014 at 09:14. To read commentary on the election using these forecasts, follow Election4castUK on Twitter. If you would like to give us feedback on this forecast, please email us at feedback@electionforecast.co.uk

Party	Lo	Seats	Hi	Swing
Conservatives	233	277	319	-29
Labour	261	304	344	46
Liberal Democrats	14	25	38	-32
SNP	12	20	28	14
Plaid Cymru	0	2	4	-1
Greens	0	0	1	-1
UKIP	1	3	7	3
Other	1	1	2	0

Our current prediction is that there will be no overall majority, but that Labour will be the largest party with 304 seats. However, based on the historical relationships between the sources of information we are using in our forecast and the outcome of UK elections, we know there is substantial uncertainty in our forecast. The sidebar at right includes predictive probabilities of the key outcomes of the election, as well as vote and seat forecasts for each party with 90% uncertainty intervals.

• And now the party forecast...
  • Conservatives. Fading slightly over the past fortnight. Seat loss very likely. Majority very unlikely. Plurality moderately unlikely.
  • Labour. Fading slightly. Seat gain almost certain. Majority unlikely. Plurality probable.
  • Liberal Democrats. Holding steady. Seat loss almost certain.
  • SNP. Holding steady. Seat gain almost certain.
  • Plaid Cymru. Holding steady. Seat loss probable.
  • Greens. Holding steady. Seat loss possible.
  • UKIP. Rising. Seat gain almost certain.